That makes sence then but why does my chart say its december Isn't january G1? I'm on F1. I need to be learned on these rudimentary concepts. Ahh who cares buy after a bunch of red bars sell after a bunch of green ones who cares what it is I just don't want a truck with a bunch of oil showing up at my house.
CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Quote from NoDoji:
OK, Picaso, I am massively impressed and I humbly hand you my RQPA crown.
Modified of course to be your RKPA crown.
You're a guy, right?
Hey, I know you can tell I'm a guy by the douchy comments
But I'm gonna pass on your crown, I'm a republican (as opposed to royalist, not to a democrat) :eek:
Nice play (also RiskAddict and StartTraitor) on that last-minute rebound, that's where you see who the professionals are.
The only thing slightly bearish is the suching inventory went up, which gave the bears just enough ammo to continue to piggy back on the rollover effect......that all in all makes 3 pretty bullish inventory reports......but there is major gaming going on.......the kind that is connected to options and the uso rollover.......the kind that the cftc had to investigate....when oil was around 44-37 a barrel, and the cftc came out and said they were investigating the relationship between the uso fund`s rollover, and traders taking huge positions in the futures to front run, causing abnormal price fluctuations around the uso rollover.
Nothing substantial ever came out of it as prices recovered to the 50ish range, and i imagine the traders were "good little boys" for a couple of months.
however, the crude rollover, compared to gold, silver, and copper stood out in the face of what otherwise was a very bullish inventory report.
An 8 dollar swing in 4 days, so we are lower than before the inflation trade and 3 bullish inventory reports----with most analysts expecting 100 crude easily in 2011.
There is way too much funny business in all markets, but commodities are right up there with irrational fund flows--stupid money messes up any rational sense of price discovery---and crude oil is flat out unstable----who knows what the true value of this crap is-----because it is so damn manipulated-----crude oil literally coule be worth 61-100 in the span of 4 weeks, just due to abnormal fund flows at the extremes revolving around the risk on trade and rollover, and begiing of the month capital flows.
i really wonder how much of all of this selloff in all asset classes really revolves around an important end of year rollover effect whch happens to corresponde nicely with a huge runnup in prices so fund managers wanted to lock in their 2010 profits early this year, and very little to do with china possibly tightening and any perceived euro troubles as the chinease 4.4 inflation cpe report was in the market for 2 days before any selling started, and the euro mess was known for weeks before hand----its like the fund guys looked at amazon and netflix and said to themselves "how much further can we push these up anyway from here?" So let`s liquidate and we will buy back after the correction-----muct be nice to decide when its time for things to go down---because it sure has very little to do with good or bad news---its only bad news when the big boys say it is by fund liquidations.
This selloff came on a thursday night at 6:00 after a normal trading day with very little volitility-really out of nowhere---the china tightening is the excuse after the fact---big boys just decided it was time---basically, completely arbitrary---and the breadth of the selloff can never really be anticipated til after the fact---it makes swing trading really stressful if you don`t have access like the big boys to the equities, commodities, order books--it is a major advanatge for GS to know that they have a bunch of sell orders through their clearing operations for the next day-to go short the cl futures the night before or right after the previous day`s pit close----their is a reason the 3 big boys rarely have a losing trading day boa, gs, jpm, and that`s just the big banks---imagine all their hedge fund tentacles, truly a difficult game when your playing against house odds worse than vegas---it seems the only way to trade cl is brobably like ND does, and just pay the stop price when they take her money, and yes that adds up at the end of the year---the bottom line is the big guys always win in cl.....even hedge funds get crushed trying to position trade cl this year...for a small retail trader ND may have the optimal style for trading cl if in fact her stats are legitimate---only she knows for sure, because this is the internet anybody can say anything, but if she is correclty stating her results, I sure could learn a lot from her just from a money management standpoint---I would love to look at all her trades over the last 6 months in cl, and analize her stops, # and percentage of 15 point stop losses, versus the number of break even trades, versus her 5 pointers, and 20-30 pointers per day, and this would probably help me develop a better more sound money managing strategy.
I am seriously doubting whether it is very likely I could make trading cl a career versus just another trader who happens on several good runs.....it is hard----you can see it all around you--Schizo-who started this journal doesn`t even trade CL anymore---this is one tough task to make a career trading cl as a private trader without the privy "relational information" or sizable capital of the large players which provides quite an edge, and actually distorts prices more because----of their informational advantage--they known when they can lever up on positions---and take increased risk-----and gain maximum profits at times when the private trader would be too cautious at certain price levels---sorry about the ramble-----just some truthful thoughts that I thought might be worth opening up to discussion in this journal---no negativity meant for any readers, traders, or participants.
Nothing substantial ever came out of it as prices recovered to the 50ish range, and i imagine the traders were "good little boys" for a couple of months.
however, the crude rollover, compared to gold, silver, and copper stood out in the face of what otherwise was a very bullish inventory report.
An 8 dollar swing in 4 days, so we are lower than before the inflation trade and 3 bullish inventory reports----with most analysts expecting 100 crude easily in 2011.
There is way too much funny business in all markets, but commodities are right up there with irrational fund flows--stupid money messes up any rational sense of price discovery---and crude oil is flat out unstable----who knows what the true value of this crap is-----because it is so damn manipulated-----crude oil literally coule be worth 61-100 in the span of 4 weeks, just due to abnormal fund flows at the extremes revolving around the risk on trade and rollover, and begiing of the month capital flows.
i really wonder how much of all of this selloff in all asset classes really revolves around an important end of year rollover effect whch happens to corresponde nicely with a huge runnup in prices so fund managers wanted to lock in their 2010 profits early this year, and very little to do with china possibly tightening and any perceived euro troubles as the chinease 4.4 inflation cpe report was in the market for 2 days before any selling started, and the euro mess was known for weeks before hand----its like the fund guys looked at amazon and netflix and said to themselves "how much further can we push these up anyway from here?" So let`s liquidate and we will buy back after the correction-----muct be nice to decide when its time for things to go down---because it sure has very little to do with good or bad news---its only bad news when the big boys say it is by fund liquidations.
This selloff came on a thursday night at 6:00 after a normal trading day with very little volitility-really out of nowhere---the china tightening is the excuse after the fact---big boys just decided it was time---basically, completely arbitrary---and the breadth of the selloff can never really be anticipated til after the fact---it makes swing trading really stressful if you don`t have access like the big boys to the equities, commodities, order books--it is a major advanatge for GS to know that they have a bunch of sell orders through their clearing operations for the next day-to go short the cl futures the night before or right after the previous day`s pit close----their is a reason the 3 big boys rarely have a losing trading day boa, gs, jpm, and that`s just the big banks---imagine all their hedge fund tentacles, truly a difficult game when your playing against house odds worse than vegas---it seems the only way to trade cl is brobably like ND does, and just pay the stop price when they take her money, and yes that adds up at the end of the year---the bottom line is the big guys always win in cl.....even hedge funds get crushed trying to position trade cl this year...for a small retail trader ND may have the optimal style for trading cl if in fact her stats are legitimate---only she knows for sure, because this is the internet anybody can say anything, but if she is correclty stating her results, I sure could learn a lot from her just from a money management standpoint---I would love to look at all her trades over the last 6 months in cl, and analize her stops, # and percentage of 15 point stop losses, versus the number of break even trades, versus her 5 pointers, and 20-30 pointers per day, and this would probably help me develop a better more sound money managing strategy.
I am seriously doubting whether it is very likely I could make trading cl a career versus just another trader who happens on several good runs.....it is hard----you can see it all around you--Schizo-who started this journal doesn`t even trade CL anymore---this is one tough task to make a career trading cl as a private trader without the privy "relational information" or sizable capital of the large players which provides quite an edge, and actually distorts prices more because----of their informational advantage--they known when they can lever up on positions---and take increased risk-----and gain maximum profits at times when the private trader would be too cautious at certain price levels---sorry about the ramble-----just some truthful thoughts that I thought might be worth opening up to discussion in this journal---no negativity meant for any readers, traders, or participants.
The problem you mentioned ain't limited only to CL. The same applies to ES as well. The big selloffs usually occur in the Globex when everyone is asleep on this side of the Atlantic.
It's true that I'm not trading CL as actively as before but I haven't given up entirely either. As far as the edge is concerned, I really don't have anything important to add other than to say pay more attention to the technical than the fundamental analysis. Good luck.
The Psychology of these markets are crazy, just 4, yes "4" days ago, we are going to have runaway inflation, and crude is going to 100, and now you start seeing a bunch of 'analysts" coming out saying inventories are too big and we are going below 80, have you seen more doom and gloom reports that have a bearish tint now that markets are going down, it is amazing how utterly unstable market beliefs are from 5 days to the next, and I bet you at key levels of support, miraculously, after the market decides to hold for whatever reason, that a bunch of positive stories come out-----------I swear the financial media is so manipulated by the big players depending upon if they are lined up short or long-----cnbc is fed more stories by interested parties that actually eccentuates market moves----it is real hard to have your own opinions when statistics are utilized one way, and then some other analyst uses some other form of statistics to support an entirely different thesis.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40238743
For example, I read Bloomberg end of day market analysis on crude oil, and it never fails if crude is down they find some analyst who quotes some bearish stat to support that case, and if crude is up, there are 3 analysts quoting facts about why oil is so bullish right now.....it literally changes over a week, 2 weeks, a month----the problem with crude is there are "no actual facts' it is purely money inflows or outflows, is open interest going up, and are new positions being opened bullish or bearish exagerating price moves-----and that can be because of several factors: inventories, the euro, equities, inflation concerns, risk, commodity funds that buy across the board, etc...when it trades in an understandable range--it is easier for me to trade-----------but going from 88 to 64, what key level should i start buying, and even then at that time analysts were saying we were breaking below 60.........price literally would not budge past 87.70 4 days ago, and now nobody wants to buy it at 80.......it just is bizarre how the psychology of markets are just all over the place---whio knows we may be going down to 75, 70, 65 as this move could either be just a correction, or the complete move is over.
I guess what amazes me more than anything about crude over the last 4 years of watching price is how many days in a row of a trend, literally if you put up a day chart for a year, cl goes in one direction, then stops, and goes in the other for two weeks,3 weeks, its like a big ship that takes a long time to stop, and turn around, so it literally goes up 10-12 bucks then down 10-12 bucks, just on average-you would think this makes it easier to trade---but it is the timing that is hard to master. Is this the 2 week move or the 4 week move? etc.
It is amazing, I remember holding cl long at 71, and nobody would take it off my hands, there was so much bearish pressure on my position, and 2 weeks later I am literally short at 83, and the damn thing is taking heat on the long side----and the market Psychology actually matches that trading action, i.e., the market sentiment seems to make sense at that time, when literally two weeks earlier it was completely the opposite--where in fact, nothing material - fundamentally speaking - actually changed much in 2 weeks time. But the psychology of the markets did just because they were going up or down!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40238743
For example, I read Bloomberg end of day market analysis on crude oil, and it never fails if crude is down they find some analyst who quotes some bearish stat to support that case, and if crude is up, there are 3 analysts quoting facts about why oil is so bullish right now.....it literally changes over a week, 2 weeks, a month----the problem with crude is there are "no actual facts' it is purely money inflows or outflows, is open interest going up, and are new positions being opened bullish or bearish exagerating price moves-----and that can be because of several factors: inventories, the euro, equities, inflation concerns, risk, commodity funds that buy across the board, etc...when it trades in an understandable range--it is easier for me to trade-----------but going from 88 to 64, what key level should i start buying, and even then at that time analysts were saying we were breaking below 60.........price literally would not budge past 87.70 4 days ago, and now nobody wants to buy it at 80.......it just is bizarre how the psychology of markets are just all over the place---whio knows we may be going down to 75, 70, 65 as this move could either be just a correction, or the complete move is over.
I guess what amazes me more than anything about crude over the last 4 years of watching price is how many days in a row of a trend, literally if you put up a day chart for a year, cl goes in one direction, then stops, and goes in the other for two weeks,3 weeks, its like a big ship that takes a long time to stop, and turn around, so it literally goes up 10-12 bucks then down 10-12 bucks, just on average-you would think this makes it easier to trade---but it is the timing that is hard to master. Is this the 2 week move or the 4 week move? etc.
It is amazing, I remember holding cl long at 71, and nobody would take it off my hands, there was so much bearish pressure on my position, and 2 weeks later I am literally short at 83, and the damn thing is taking heat on the long side----and the market Psychology actually matches that trading action, i.e., the market sentiment seems to make sense at that time, when literally two weeks earlier it was completely the opposite--where in fact, nothing material - fundamentally speaking - actually changed much in 2 weeks time. But the psychology of the markets did just because they were going up or down!