CL Journal

Maverick74 said:
This will be my last comment about this and then I'll leave him alone. The only thing that matters to me is your sharpe. Not what you "make", but the variance you have to put up with to make that amount. He took 3 trades over 15 days and netted about 2.65. But the variance he had to tolerate to make that 2.65 is unacceptable to most professionals. Considering the avg monthly range for crude had been about 3 dollars for the last few months and it had a 6 dollar range just in the period of time in which he was long. Pulling 2.65 out of three trades which that much variance doesn't work for me but perhaps he is willing to accept that kind of volatility. Most traders work diligently to extract profits "without" having to take that much variance in their p&l. Anyone can make money with high variance. That's simply the risk premium in the market. It's there for the taking. The key is to extract the alpha, not the risk premium. I'll leave this thread to the OP now. I've said all I need to say. No need to repeat myself.
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I see your points,Maverick 74...,...
AS far as ''pulling $2.65 out of $6 range'' OK Say he is trading trends; $6 sideways trend, which you called a range.OK;OK i dont want to get in the sharp measure problems, now. Plenty of trend followers take 50% out of trend, prefer more, myself,when possible ,but he made a profit.

Bottom line i would much rather get $2.65 than less or loss;
Shell Oil & Trading took out more> 20% profit/+ than XOM past year or so[North American Oil Sales][ 20%+/ means 20% more or less]

This comment is a trend comment, not an argument-thanks. By the way TX TEA/related ,can+ has gapped against ANYONE, much , much, more than ES,SPY......
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Long term charts remain very bullish
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True Buy 1 Sell Oil; but much more risk for Uptrend with 6 month candlechart is bearish, as of FRI close. Could go to $60. SPY , ES + SPXL,QQQ, UPRO are better uptrend$ as of FRIDAY close.NOT a prediction; frankly i could make a good case for TX Tea uptrend or downtrend , as of FRI +Monday, morning. .........................................................................
 
JSSPMK said:
Disagree, I don't see the 'very' part, I'd have sold it here, but who knows, I'm not convinced either way.
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As i noted i could make a good case for longer up bull trend ; or down bear trend =6 months. barchart .com has over all buy 8% , mostly sell, WTI/Brent; but like Rich Dennis warned do my- '' your own research''


PT Jones has done real well aiming @ = hitting bottoms [plural], some years anyway,OK; but most dont , why?? The math is wrong for picking'' the bottom '', TX Tea; stock indexes are much different.[As maverick74 implied]
Several reason$ for that [#1] Its simply an ego thing for many; so wrong risk reward there.
[#2] Like target shooting seldom hit the exact center like ''the bottom''; but then that is why all targets have circles [ plural]of larger targets on them.[3]We can skip the small sample; ''the bottom'' is not known except in hind sight; in the 1930's it was under a $00.55/barrel[less than 55 cents/barrel][4-7] If you can profit hitting bottom fishing; fine with me... ...
 
Third lower top often results in a sharp downward move, see what happens
 

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