CL futures - experienced tape reader please read

Quote from accutrader:

On December 23/09, CL G0 was in consolidation from 10:30 eastern until pit closing. The range was basically from 76.50 to 76.00. It is unusual for CL to be in that tight of a consolidation for so long. That showed most traders had gone home. The market was not interested in doing anything, volume or no volume.

I use volume but I don’t think that you can use volume without regard to what is happening. Unusual volume is more significant at known sup/res points or when the market direction is strong.

An example is the volume at 9.12 eastern this morning. The bar came on a move up from pit opening at 9:00. The volume was on a down bar at 79.80, yesterday’s high. Even here the volume has to be interpreted. Does the volume at possible resistance mean the longs are exiting their positions? If so, will CL now consolidate or will it move down? As it turned out, CL moved up slightly to $80.00 and rejected there and went down.

If the market delta would have provided any good clues around 9:12 eastern this morning, I would appreciate it if you let us know.
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Suggestion : ask someone about where the biggest volume of enery trades.

Its on the exchanges like ICE and swaps using over the counter brokers to quietly put on "size" and "bets" "hedges" whateer yo want to call them

The electronic marketplace is a manipulation tool in my opinion for larger traders to scare up the "other side" of their trades to "shake" them....... on occasion electronic markets just flow as normal, no big deal, no news etc.... for most part its just a game. Dark pools are where the "trades" are on.
 
Hi pwrtrdr:

Do the over the counter trades get cleared through the CME?

As you are probably aware, the CME website shows the intraday volumes of the contracts. Later, there is an end of the day volume report which shows a higher volume. There is a page that reconciles the volumes on the two reports. The main differences, as I remember them, are volume on block sales and volume on spreads between different month’s contracts. These volumes are not included in the intraday totals.

The biggest volume on the CME reports for CL is the intraday Globex volume.

However, regardless, I find the volume on electronic trading helpful. So often, CL will say move up to an even dollar amount or some other sup/res and there will be a spike in volume which is a good heads up that big money is exiting their positions and the long is over.

If I am wrong, please let me know.
 
Quote from Enderson:

A little past 12:00pm on 12/23/2009 CL futures had some size rolling through the tape and delta charts (pic). It was not unbelievable size but definitely noteworthy considering light holiday volume. The session was trending up all morning and beginning to build value around 75.50.

Normally when I see size like this with the CL futures price snaps off levels easily. This session the orders hit and price did not move a tick higher for quite a while. Could someone experienced with tape reading please explain what is going on here? Are the market makers holding too much short inventory with such a long biased session, trying to pin the offers in attempt to balance at better prices?
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Can you specify what was the data source (provider) for this?
 
Yes some do CME or old NYMEX. clearport

some dont, some are on ICE www.theice.com

some swap with each other too, like one oil company may do large trades with a fund



Quote from accutrader:

Hi pwrtrdr:

Do the over the counter trades get cleared through the CME?

As you are probably aware, the CME website shows the intraday volumes of the contracts. Later, there is an end of the day volume report which shows a higher volume. There is a page that reconciles the volumes on the two reports. The main differences, as I remember them, are volume on block sales and volume on spreads between different month’s contracts. These volumes are not included in the intraday totals.

The biggest volume on the CME reports for CL is the intraday Globex volume.

However, regardless, I find the volume on electronic trading helpful. So often, CL will say move up to an even dollar amount or some other sup/res and there will be a spike in volume which is a good heads up that big money is exiting their positions and the long is over.

If I am wrong, please let me know.
More...
 
Quote from pwrtrdr:

Suggestion : ask someone about where the biggest volume of enery trades.

Its on the exchanges like ICE and swaps using over the counter brokers to quietly put on "size" and "bets" "hedges" whateer yo want to call them

The electronic marketplace is a manipulation tool in my opinion for larger traders to scare up the "other side" of their trades to "shake" them....... on occasion electronic markets just flow as normal, no big deal, no news etc.... for most part its just a game. Dark pools are where the "trades" are on.
More...

I don`t doubt there are deals being made behind closed doors, but a significant portion of the volume is traded electronically and this will likely increase as the pits become obsolete and regulations tighten.

Take a look at the attached composite. The volume histogram is plotted from just before the recent intermediate swing low at 12/16/2009. Not all of the data range is seen on this 15min price chart but the volume histogram plots that entire range. Point being that it is clear how significant CL electronic volume is with regards to past and future S/R. Whatever happened in the cash index or this or that option series is of minute importance compared to this fact. Clearly, CL electronic order flow may not be the entire picture but it is very important. Consequently, tape, DOM and MD techniques are certainly worthwhile.
 

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Quote from Enderson:

I don`t doubt there are deals being made behind closed doors, but a significant portion of the volume is traded electronically and this will likely increase as the pits become obsolete and regulations tighten.

Take a look at the attached composite. The volume histogram is plotted from just before the recent intermediate swing low at 12/16/2009. Not all of the data range is seen on this 15min price chart but the volume histogram plots that entire range. Point being that it is clear how significant CL electronic volume is with regards to past and future S/R. Whatever happened in the cash index or this or that option series is of minute importance compared to this fact. Clearly, CL electronic order flow may not be the entire picture but it is very important. Consequently, tape, DOM and MD techniques are certainly worthwhile.
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Yes, it has its moments. I agree.

Just thought worth pointing out about how much is traded off exchange.


thnx
 
Enderson,

Are those order flow indicators shown in your first post publicly available for NT? I am looking into order flow analysis as an addition to my trading tool chest. Much obliged.
 
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