Chronicles of an Idiot

VisionTrader,

Regarding your concerns with your paper trading.

It all depends on how you paper trade. Do you really emulate Limit-order or market order buy/sell fills? Do you take mental stops into consideration? Sometimes even you trust your system 100%, you just can't hold it anymore - This is where "The Trader" come into play. Almost in all my trades this week I didn't wait for the price to hit my target and got out with the profit I had at the moment - in most cases I was right and it didn't reach my initial target or it turned around without getting a fill. This all might be because I'm a "lock-in the profits" kind of trader, which made me miss some big moves but also saved my behind a few times. I trust it to pay the bills every month. I feel comfortable with it and that's one of the most important things - feeling comfortable with your trading.

I guess you can't really know until you trade it live. No matter how much you backtest and how much you papertrade, it's not the same as real trading. Simulated combat is not like out there in the real battlefield.

As soon as you feel comfortable with the paper trading try the system with 1 contract. Even if you loose 10% or 20% due to "bad" fills, spillage or nerves, you seems to be on the right track and will be profitable.


I'm glad you are out of the 2/2 stop-loss/target. I remember someone saying it's like "spinning your wheels", it's actually much worse, after bad fills, spillage and nerves it's a dangerous habit.
 
VT, I noticed too, that Breakout's trades were on the 133 tick and did not necessarily follow all of your rules, so you should not be too worried that he had a bad day yesterday. This also goes to show that given any method, most traders are going to add their own twist to it and trade it somewhat differently.

You said:
Also, the M3 example that I displayed today is one of my filters. If you study what happened in the circle on the M3 chart, and look at price action on the M1 VisionTrade chart, you should make a very surprising correlation. If anybody is curious about this let me know. Don't want to throw things off course here.
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I'm curious, and I'm just guessing here - I see a cross-over of the stochastic on the M3 followed by the divergence on the M1. But you seem to have a second stochastic at a different setting. Is that right ?
 
Quote from trader416:

VT, I noticed too, that Breakout's trades were on the 133 tick and did not necessarily follow all of your rules, so you should not be too worried that he had a bad day yesterday. This also goes to show that given any method, most traders are going to add their own twist to it and trade it somewhat differently.

You said:I'm curious, and I'm just guessing here - I see a cross-over of the stochastic on the M3 followed by the divergence on the M1. But you seem to have a second stochastic at a different setting. Is that right ?
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Correct it is an 8-3-3 on the M3 chart paired and plotted with the 6-5-2. Watch each and they will lead your thoughts. Watch how they correlate with the M1 chart. Rarely do they turn at the same time.
 
Quote from VisionTrader:



Wally,

I think this is the chart from your first question. I have circled what I call an "elbow' in the stochastic. Whenever this condition occurs, it is very powerful. Elbows usually take place when the sto is trying to hook down but can not because demand is pushing it up. The elbow in this example takes the place of the (normal) higher low that would have occurred. You would want to enter on the green candle that confirms it and generally look for two points. Remember, price has to make the double bottom. It does not happen frequently. Today, if I recall there were several.

Does this answer your question. I am a little confused at what you are asking??? Give me more specific times and trades.
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This does answer my question and confirms what I was saying, namely that the divergence in the stochastics is not that critical because if you were to stick to it, you would throw out the elbows as they are not proper divergences. It's good that you know that, but actually my point is that stochastics is not that important in the whole scheme of yours at all, because MACD gives you all the signals. Stochastics is more of a cosmetic value here. Breakout's best trade yesterday was off the MACD divergence only.


Also, the M3 example that I displayed today is one of my filters. If you study what happened in the circle on the M3 chart, and look at price action on the M1 VisionTrade chart, you should make a very surprising correlation. If anybody is curious about this let me know. Don't want to throw things off course here.
More...


I am too tired for making any correlations today. I will try this weekend.


Take care.
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Congrats on your good performance. I have been using something like too, just like Breakout started with that and still believe in it, just temporarily diverted from it towards other things, but I am planning on returning to this scheme. I hope to elaborate on it at some point, just can't find enough time for everything. It's similar to yours although more comprehensive, it incorporates pullbacks as well, and this is where stochastics becomes more important. Actually, it uses 2 stochastics. Well, anyway, that's a different story.
 
VisionTrade - Level II

Set your chart up like this. Study these circles I have drawn. They can make you money. Correlate them to the M1 chart. Always make your entry from the M1 chart based on the VisionTrade rules.

  • Look for divergence on the M1. Correlate the timing with the M3 or more.
  • You do not need divergence on the M3, if its there, bingo.
  • As a bottom or top occurs on the M1, use your M3 to decide if it is the right time to enter. Do not trade against it ever.
  • Tommorrow, and the next day..watch the two stochastics. Does one lead the other? Trade when both are in harmony on the M3 and the M1.
  • Patience pays off 99% of the time. The entry will still be there.
  • study those circles. They occur at the tops and bottoms
  • Most importantly - MAMA DOW RULES

I will comment on this when appropriate tommorrow.

"That's all I have to say about that". Mama didn't raise no idiot.:D:D :p :p :eek: :eek:
 
Quote from VisionTrader:


"That's all I have to say about that". Mama didn't raise no idiot.:D:D :p :p :eek: :eek: [/B]
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what next...change the thread to Chronicles of a Smart Boy?
 
Wally you said...

"This does answer my question and confirms what I was saying, namely that the divergence in the stochastics is not that critical because if you were to stick to it, you would throw out the elbows as they are not proper divergences. It's good that you know that, but actually my point is that stochastics is not that important in the whole scheme of yours at all, because MACD gives you all the signals. Stochastics is more of a cosmetic value here. Breakout's best trade yesterday was off the MACD divergence only."

I felt I had to respond to this comment. I would make a couple idiotic comments.

If you were going to open a McDonald's franchise, would you take down the Arches.

Why question success here. I don't get it. Spend your time learning it. If you are going to take away my stochastics, I will defend my country till the end. You would definitely need to start a separate journal for this and post the trades for me to evaluate. Sorry. Don't get it.

You need to learn the six critical points of every trade. Without the Stocastics they can not be defined.

I will not budge on this one, move on.
 
Quote from VisionTrader:

VisionTrade - Level II
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Hmmmmm...okay, since you're going to level II. I think I'll
just sit down and watch instead of trying to trade along...hehe

Great thread!
 
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