Chronicles of an Idiot
- Thread starter VisionTrader
- Start date
Quote from nkhoi:
I can see his pic , right click, then open in new window but no music tho
LOL...I had just deleted my post, because I was thinking...
"What the hell...who cares...hehe
But, since you responded, I'll restate me case...lol
All I see is a red X, and if you right click on that, you'll see
the picture is coming from his "C:/ documents" folder. And I
don't think that's what he was trying to do.
I can see the picture when I click on it. But, I think he wanted it
to show, didn't he? And if he does, the pic has to be coming
from a web site and not his "C:\ documents" folder.(I think...hehe)
But, like I said...who gives a damn...lol
Quote from Breakout:
You didn't read the article, did you Wally!...hehe
You'll notice in his article that he has a profit objective:""Initially, I'll typically risk 50 points. That's enough heat. So, you have to go for at least a 250- to 350-point profit."So, in other words, he's looking for
a 5-1 to 7-1 reward/risk ratio.
Also, his statement that he makes 60-80 trades is a little misleading and I should have said something, before.
The reason he makes so many trades is because:"I've been standing in the same spot in the pit for 12 years, working with the same brokers. You have to be good to the deck (work with the brokers, rather than fight them). I'll move in and out because I want to satisfy some of these customers." In other words, a lot his trades are just quick in and outs
as a favor to his customers.
I met him once, and I was under the impression he takes somewhere around 10 to 15 trades a day, in the same way
that we might trade breakouts, pivots, supp and resistance, etc.
Well, well, well. So who is right? Quick ins and outs with a 7-1 reward to risk ratio? I doubt this is realistic. I did notice that he mentioned 250-350 point profit objectives, but how often can you get it with a 50 pt stop loss particularly when you trade 60-80 times a day. Most of his trades must have much lower profit targets or actual profits (and many are bound to be losers too), and that was my point. Even if he may try 7-1 or 5-1, these are very hard to get in any type of trading. Reading is one thing, interpreting what you read is another. My interpretation is that most of his trades have small profits of the same order (1.5 times the average loss) as his losses, and it's his winning frequency that makes him successful at the end of the day, which is typical of most if not all scalping strategies. Of course, a big 7-1 winner can make a big difference too, so it's important to go for them, no question about it. I just don't believe that they happen any more often than in any other type of trading.
There are different strategies out there, you can have a 3 or 12 pt stop loss, but if you have 3-1 reward-risk ratio and you are successful in at least 50%, you will make money. The stop loss is as useless a point to focus on as is the profit. It 's the reward-risk and the winning frequency that really matter. I have seen systems with a very low reward-risk ratios in individual trades (1-3) that make money too.
You both know this was a boring place till I got here. I make you feel young again. Standby. I'll work on the link....LOL
I don't know, maybe it's the guy in the corner that's the webmaster...
I've been reading this thread and I would like to comment on the manner in which this thing is being conducted. Tis probably the 'nicest' conversation that I've ever seen on ET... WAY to GO VT. Would also like to comment on the input BO is putting in here, excellent! GL for a 1 on 1 tutor? Now that's impressive...
I have been playing with the methods that you have been posting here and I think there is a great deal of merit in pursuing this further. Looks like with a bit of tweaking and what not that you will have a fairly consistent method for trading. Of course you must keep in mind that I am also an idiot... I wouldn't mind if you sent me a T-Shirt but if you don't that's fine as I have plenty of extra ones at the moment. I think though that there is something wrong with your 'idiot test' I tried about a dozen times to take it but couldn't figure it out, maybe I need a tutor to take this test...
Scrutch
Hey, you're just way too kind... And where did you come up with this wise person? Didn't I mention that I was an idiot, course by now I don't remember what I said, what was the question?...
Even being an idiot I understand the value behind the 8-3-3 guy. Played with this for several years (course I didn't have GL as a tutor <g>) and settled on something really close to these. Will certainly have a go with this set of numbers though... THANX!
I'm in the process of setting up my charts to follow along with VT so I can chipher what's going on here. Using MetaStock and have to build all the indicators so I can change the settings with a variable and match the posted charts. Right now I'm trying to build a ribbon that will show when we have divergence with the Stoch and MACD and mark any high/low that's got a partner back behind.
VT: Is there any definition of how many bars need to be between the high/low match? I've also noticed some correlation with n number of bars between the high/low where it seems to move much more rapidly in the preferred direction. I need to study this a bit more as there may or may not be something to it.
BTW, I think at the time the Greenspan article was done that the SnP was 50 bucks a tic. I know that I was trading SnP about then and a handle was worth 500. Money came and went in a hurry... This Emini is much more friendly and the electronic part of it is way nicer. It's no fun to know you're in the SnP but your broker can't find out exactly where your fill was, but not to worry, they will get back to you...
Scrutch