Chronicle of a Death Foretold ?

Today March 10 2007 Saturday

Week 1 Summary

TRADING AND P/L

# Missed trades = 5

# Valid Trades = 7
Max Trades per day = 3
Min Trades per day = 0

Winners: (46 pips)
Max Profit per trade = 8 pips
Losers: 1 (1 pip)
Max L per trade = 1

Direction Forecast for long or shorts: 7/10. OK
Entries: 6/10. Many missed trades. I have to work on that
Exits: 8/10. OK

Time left to target: 7 weeks
Weekly Realized Net Profit $538
Target Ranking: Slightly above the conservative scenario

a. Pessimistic: -$500
b. Conservative: +5 Pips a day (+/- $2500 in 8 weeks)
c. Optimistic: +10 Pips a day (+/- $5000 in 8 weeks)

jjrvat
 
Today March 10 2007 Saturday

Week 1 Summary

SYSTEM AND TECHNICAL

Technical:

1. Chart M10 for direction
a. SMA36 / b. MACD (12,9,26) for divergences / c. Daily Pivots for S/R levels
OK

2. Chart M2 for entry
a. Bollinger Bands (22) / b. RSI 7 for oversold or overbought

When used against the trade in M10 they work nice to point entries in extreme short term imbalances but I need to work in better entry confirmations when the market doesn’t reach these extremes. Missed too many trades because of that

3. Chart M2 for exit
a. WMA 8 / b. WMA 5.
Excellent as an early exit signal for a losing trade but not good enough for exact entries or exits.

CDF System:

1. When price is below SMA 36 in the M10 I look for shorts. OK

a. Entry point when price hit M2 BB (RSI overbought for additional confirmation) and pivot point. OK but it needs improvement.
b. Free Exit. I usually go for 3 - 8 pips or when the WMA 5 crosses back the WMA 8. OK
c. If M10 MACD divergence (usually confirmed with news) / Entry point when price break the BB and touch the closer pivot point. OK

jjrvat
 
Today March 10 2007 Saturday

Week 1 Summary

PSYCHOLOGY:

Despite of the good results in terms of profit, the end of the week left me with some question marks in my short term trading approach

Impulsive Trades = 0 (but many were really close to be done on Thursday and Friday)
Gambling Trades = 0

General Rules Review

1. Small consistent profits = OK
The system is not the best in the world but so far it has been profitable (paper and real)

2. Less time in the market = less risk = small losses AND Limited trades per day = OK
It’s probably the best of the system.

3. A trend only changes because of its fundamentals AND. I don’t trade the news in the short term = OK but….
I think I have been “reading” the news pretty well lately but I can’t translate that to practice. I lose a lot of confidence to pull the trigger after big news has already settled down like on Thursday and Friday (0 trades)

Stupid Random Comments that pass through my mind during this week (In order of appearance):

1. Delusions to become millionaire: I should risk more if my system is “pretty safe”. Why trade only 1 contract when I could have trade 4 with the same system and made $2000 ($2000* 4 weeks * 12* + etc, etc, etc = $1.000.000 in 6 hours….).

2. Time efficiency: 7 Trades in a week focusing 10h to 12h in the market… too much. I should adapt my system to make me work only a couple of hours a day…

3. Trade efficiency and fun: I’m getting bore …. Instead of making 2 or 3 trades with 8 pips target I should focus for two hours and scalp 6 to 8 trades of 2 pips…. It will be exciting, fast and I will be done by 11:00 AM

4. Anxiety: Winning and I’m desperate because I haven’t trade for two days (Thursday and Friday). I don’t want to imagine that in a losing week …

Comments on my Comments

1. DON’T jump to conclusions so fast
2. After finishing the 8 weeks I will evaluate if this is a valid alternative … in the worse case scenario I would have gained many more hours of experience
3. I should start watching closely the jp/us pair so I have an alternative when there aren’t trades in the eur/usd pair.
4. I have to always keep in mind my 3rd rule “If I reach my optimistic goal (10 pips) in 1 trade or two consecutive bad trades I stop”.
5. Don’t get greedy.
6. If a get bored just close the trading platform and do something else.
7. Forget about the market for the weekend.

It was a good week I hope the next one its better.

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 European Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

9: 20 GMT +1

Trade 1

1. 9: 20 AM (131.31). Price above 36 SMA? (yes) Long (yes)

2. News: 10:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m

2. M2 BB hit? (no)
M2 RSI oversold? (no)
Daily pivot hit? (no)

Status: waiting for setup and news to go long

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 European Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

10: 00 GMT +1

Trade 1

1. 10: 00 AM (131.48). Price above 36 SMA? (yes) Long (yes)

2. News: 10:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m (-1.4%) Against the euro

2. M2 BB hit? (no)
M2 RSI oversold? (no)
Daily pivot hit? (no)

Comments:
1. I Think the impact of this new will be limited . ..
2. Impossible to catch that first move

Status: waiting for setup to go long

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 European Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

10: 39 GMT +1

Trade 1

Comments:
1. Almost 50 pips in 1 hour
2. I couldnt catch the move ....

Status: waiting for setup to go long

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 European Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

14: 30 GMT +1

Random Comments:
1. Price broke M10 SMA 36
2. System not working today...

Status: step aside

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

16: 16 GMT +1

Random Comments:
1. Price broke again M10 SMA 36
2. MArket action really strange today ... no pullbacks in any direction

Status: step aside with a short bias

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

16: 18 GMT +1 (131.91)

Random Comments:

1. In my opinion if the price doent break the 131.97 its going to be a lot profit taking when Europe goes home ... We'll see


Status: step aside with a short bias

jjrvat
 
Today March 12 2007 US Session: (Live EUR/US Futures)

16: 18 GMT +1 (131.91)

Random Comments:

1. Overbought in M240,M60,M30,M15,M10 and M5

Status: step aside with a short bias

jjrvat
 
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