Christmas In March For Price TA Trader Wannabes

[Scataphagos]

Scat, what you say makes sense, but there are obstacles.
There are numerous time frames and numerous S/R levels.
Are you saying (and I think you are) you only pay attention to S/R levels according to the tf you are trading?

So, then it becomes difficult to answer someone who asks: "What's your call right now, go long or short?"
Well the answer is: "In my time frame I may want to go long, but in your tf you may want to go short" and then go into an explanation on your timeframe which may vary according to your and mkt conditions.

That's a really great question and one I'm sure all of the curious would like to know.

The answer is no... "S/R are tested at the same in ALL tf charts at exactly the same time". There would not be a time when you'd want to GO long in one time frame and GO short in some other time frame. However you might BE long in one time frame and BE short in a shorter time frame.*

The longer your time frame, the later you may see it. Imagine the daily chart is an accordion that's "sqeezed". On the daily bar you see only open, hi, low, and close (volume irrelevant here). Take that same day and "stretch it out into 10-minute bars" and you see what went on over the day. Intraday S/R formed a few times and each time the play was valid... trouble with the daily chart is that while those intraday S/Rs formed, you don't see them.

Obviously the solution is to view shorter term time frames.

*Let's say you're trading both intraday and "longer term from daily charts". It may be that your daily long is conflicted with your intraday short. All that means is that you're holding your long because you haven't yet hit your stop point for the trade. Imaging being long on your daily play in Nov '21, and you see a support break on the 10 min chart which you properly act upon (Yeah!), but you're still holding your daily long. That's a matter of the daily signal "lagging". So you might BE long the daily for a bit and BE short the intraday... but you wouldn't GO long with the daily and GO short the intraday at the same time.

 

[Scataphagos]

Generally, technical analysis is not about why, but how. I never asked you about why, but how.

When ES was at 4025 (the time of my post), you could make a decision. Long, flat (don't enter any trades) or short.

If it's really Christmas in March for your method you should easily be able to give a real time demonstration next week.

Attributing a story to price moves in hindsight is very different from trading the same chart in real time.

Thank you.

Trying to post real time trades for the view of others is very distracting so I won't do that. What I showed in the charts are regularly occurring setups. I named what they are. They are not "hind sight trade fitting", but rather "how things work every day".

If you took the time to learn Price TA and looked back at this thread, you'd say... "Scatty showed me all of those already".

I've often said, "I'll show them/traders where to fish, but I won't bait their hook and cast their line for them".

The basic premise of TA is "Buy Support, Sell Resistance, Chase Breakouts, Trade With Stops". That's "where to fish".

I went back on myself by posting the charts and the key... that was "baiting your hook"... and why I labeled it "Christmas in March".

Up to you from here.

 

[themickey]

That's a really great question and one I'm sure all of the curious would like to know.

The answer is no... "S/R are tested at the same in ALL tf charts at exactly the same time". There would not be a time when you'd want to GO long in one time frame and GO short in some other time frame. However you might BE long in one time frame and BE short in a shorter time frame.*

However.... the longer your time frame, the later you may see it. Imagine the daily chart is an accordion that's "sqeezed". On the daily bar you see only open, hi, low, and close (volume irrelevant here). Take that same day and "stretch it out into 10-minute bars" and you see what went on over the day. Intraday S/R formed a few times and each time the play was valid... trouble with the daily chart is that while those intraday S/Rs formed, you don't see them.

Obviously the solution is to view shorter term time frames.

*Let's say you're trading both intraday and "longer term from daily charts". It may be that your daily long is conflicted with your intraday short. All that means is that you're holding your long because you haven't yet hit your stop point for the trade. Imaging being long on your daily play in Nov 21 and you see a support break on the 10 min chart which you properly act upon (Yeah!), but you're still holding your daily long. That's a matter of the daily signal "lagging". So you might BE long the daily for a bit and BE short the intraday... but you wouldn't GO long with the daily and GO short the intraday at the same time.

I was thinking in terms of different traders trading different tf's, not one individual trader.
So an intraday guy will be going short on short term resistance while another trader trading maybe monthly bars (yep trading monthly bars) he/she may want to be going long.
Now imo whoever has most strength wins, there may be 300 intraday guys going short and 5 long term traders going long. Intraday guys may win the battle with huge numbers and size that it overwhelms the long term guys. Just a thought.

My observation is S/R levels are often breached, sometimes temporarily, sometimes permanently (ie price smashes through).
Also different instruments and commodities behave differently to TA.
I wont go into detail but gold and copper frequently break my TA rules which doesnt happen with other metals to the same degree, also I notice fx - I could never trade as they constantly break my TA rules, ie I have very reliable rules but some instruments wont behave to them, so I avoid.

 

[Scataphagos]

I was thinking in terms of different traders trading different tf's, not one individual trader.
So an intraday guy will be going short on short term resistance while another trader trading maybe monthly bars (yep trading monthly bars) he/she may want to be going long.
Now imo whoever has most strength wins, there may be 300 intraday guys going short and 5 long term traders going long. Intraday guys may win the battle with huge numbers and size that it overwhelms the long term guys. Just a thought.

My observation is S/R levels are often breached, sometimes temporarily, sometimes permanently (ie price smashes through).
Also different instruments and commodities behave differently to TA.
I wont go into detail but gold and copper frequently break my TA rules which doesnt happen with other metals to the same degree, also I notice fx - I could never trade as they constantly break my TA rules, ie I have very reliable rules but some instruments wont behave to them, so I avoid.

Sounds like you need some "new rules".

It's my contention... "Price TA works in ALL markets and in ALL time frames and EXACTLY THE SAME WAY IN ALL". IOW... if you know Price TA for the stock index futures, you can trade metals, grains, currencies et al with the same principles. (Wow!)

KISS, baby, as always!

 

[themickey]

Sounds like you need some "new rules".

It's my contention... "Price TA works in ALL markets and in ALL time frames and EXACTLY THE SAME WAY IN ALL". IOW... if you know Price TA for the stock index futures, you can trade metals, grains, currencies et al with the same principles. (Wow!)

KISS, baby, as always!

Yeah here I'll humbly disagree, I use some mainstreet unorthodox TA methods.

 

[themickey]

Look at copper, either cash or futures between March 21 to March 22, and tell me you could trade that profitably using your PA/TA. I doubt it.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Trying to post real time trades for the view of others is very distracting so I won't do that. What I showed in the charts are regularly occurring setups. I named what they are.

If you're a scalper in and out in seconds, sure, but if your method gives you precise signals it's very quick to type out for example: "L 4025. ST 4015."

They are not "hind sight trade fitting", but rather "how things work every day".

You are annotating a chart after the fact, so actually, it is in hind sight. As always, charts are crystal clear after the fact. At the right hard edge it's most certainly not and you'll have support/resistance failing to hold up and breakouts failing to breakout.

The e-mini S&P 500 is a messy and choppy market, so even defining S/R accurately is not always straightforward. Often, you'll have more of a zone than an exact level. So, defining when a S/R levels holds or breaks is certainly not easy.

One of my bread-and-butter "set-ups" are failed breakouts of levels. Arguably just as important as an actual breakout. So, where you're chasing breakouts I may be fading them when they fail to breakout.

I've often said, "I'll show them/traders where to fish, but I won't bait their hook and cast their line for them".

Let's be real. What you've shown is really vague at best.

Up to you from here.

I have my own method/system (TA), so I'm not really shopping for a method.

But I do have some skin in the game and I know only all too well how easy it is to annotate a chart by end of day and how it's a bit more difficult to trade the same chart in real time.

So, if you want to be a teacher on ET I think a real time demonstration would be nice for your students.

 

[Scataphagos]

So, if you want to be a teacher on ET I

I do not

 

[Scataphagos]

If you're a scalper in and out in seconds, sure, but if your method gives you precise signals it's very quick to type out for example: "L 4025. ST 4015."

It would be very easy to past-post that, you know. I can imagine a fair number of Twitter guys do so.

 

[Scataphagos]

I have my own method/system (TA), so I'm not really shopping for a method.

I've shared my method... why don't you share yours?