Christmas In March For Price TA Trader Wannabes

You know the market can "turn early" on a number you're considering... and it can also "overshoot", right? "Contain the overshoot"... isn't that one of the reasons you use stops?

That's exactly what I've been trying to communicate to you since page 2 or 3. :)

First of all, defining so called S/R objectively and accurately isn't necessarily straightforward.

Admittedly, there can be some artistry involved unless you use objective levels such as prior/current day OHLC. Here, there's no interpretation.

So, even if you're able to define S/R, you'll often end up more with a zone than a precise level to the tick.

Now, assuming that we were able to define S/R and using your suggested approach, the next challenge is to differentiate between support/resistance holding or price breaking out. In some ways it's similar to differentiating between a reversal and a pullback. Not always easy either.

I guess I didn't pick my words carefully enough. I meant to convey "chase short on breakdown of the support zone", not "literally short 3973.75". Next time I'll try to say more precisely what I intend.

The devil is in the details in this game... :)
 
So, even if you're able to define S/R, you'll often end up more with a zone than a precise level to the tick.
Exactly right, and as you say, lots of artistry.

I think Scat has me on block now, so I guess I'm only talking to you. But I already outlined earlier in detail how a break of support was very tricky to trade, and yet, no discussion.

Now if I go back to his chart and look at the very last possible trade, he calls it a matched low, but that it turned early. So how on earth do we enter this trade? If we "front run" each entry, this means using even a much bigger stop. He says there is no way to know if a trade will work, so this means each trade has to be front run or else this can't be claimed as a possible trade.

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Scat, I appreciate your attempt to show your KISS method, but I'm with @Laissez Faire on his points. There is nothing simple about this once you need to actually come up with a trading plan which includes where to enter, where you stop out, and where to take profit. His point about chasing breakouts being in direct conflict with the idea of selling resistance is spot on.

I took the liberty of going over the chart you post and I want to discuss some areas using your ideas. At B we have a double bottom, but it doesn't bounce far, and breaks through the second time. You drew this line on your chart to I think highlight the support turned to resistance at A, which does work for a reversal trade, but if we used the lower swing low, which is where line C is, then this area doesn't work so well since it goes above the level at C to get to A. And we can even argue that the lower line is a better line since it is a more prominent swing low.

If we look at C, we certainly don't have a double bottom as it breaks through. But we also can't really chase the breakout, or breakdown in this case, as it comes back above on its way to A.

At D, we have another case of a failed double bottom, and if we tried to short this, well, its barely good for 5 points. If you need to see how price develops at a key point, you're now going to be shorting much lower than where it broke, or buying much higher from where the breakout happened. And this will usually be entering at the worst possible time.

Moving to E, we have a failed double top, but maybe you don't like that swing high as its recent. At F, the double top works well, but as stated above, if we are shorting double tops, how on earth can we chase breakouts?

G is a perfect example of this. Here the breakout trade seems to work as it shoots up to H, but then comes right back down to almost this same level again. The point at H does provide the double top, but how on earth do we know to take a short at H and a long at G for the breakout? Of course by the time we get to G, we can see the series of higher lows, so perhaps we want to take the breakout at G, but this is also getting into a long trade very, very late.

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Its clear that when doing this in real time, its practically a coin toss if you should be taking a reversal trade or a breakout trade. Furthermore, if you want to use anything bigger than a 5 point stop, you will now need at least a 10 point target since your win rate will I doubt be better than 50%, and many of these trades don't offer even 10 points profit before price comes right back down to your entry.

Don't get me wrong, I love the KISS approach and see many of these setups, but when it comes to actually trading it vs. marking up a chart after the fact, its a whole different game.


Noah, sent you a PM.
 
For those who don't understand TA and context....The spy cracked on interest rate fears a few days ago. It bounced into this mornings 50 day and 20 day Ema. I was long but got out quickly. Then knowing the context I shorted the break of the .618 I drew in on the hourly chart. That was my best trade in weeks. I don't comprehend how people can look at charts and not see support and resistance and or bounces at the big moving averages.

Note I am not saying T/A will make you money but you do see statistically significant bounces.
 
Nope, but I'm sure you will be able to tell me at the end of the day which trades I should have taken!
Too funny. His post to you was after the AM was well underway. So apparently a trend day long was ruled out.

Still, predicting day types is tricky even if your inference contains a complete data set.

If you always bet on W or M, you are a hero 4 out of 5 days but that one day you’re off you give it all back.
 
Too funny. His post to you was after the AM was well underway. So apparently a trend day long was ruled out.

Still, predicting day types is tricky even if your inference contains a complete data set.

If you always bet on W or M, you are a hero 4 out of 5 days but that one day you’re off you give it all back.
Also note that all he talks about is support or resistance. His post didn't even mention direction. So with market dropping, its easy to say resistance held and support broke. And of course if we rallied, support held and resistance broke. Bravo!
 
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