Chris Christie is in

[Max E.]

Nevermind i was looking at the chart wrong, i guess the chart is in percentage terms not dollar terms. So, 9 is 9% not 9$ for the contract price which would be 90%. My bad.

Quote from Max E. Pad:

After seeing this chart on Intrade im finally going to open an account there. The contract for him to win the republican nominee went all the way up to 95, and closed above 90 yesterday all on that news article. As a reversion trader, i am salivating when i look at that, I mean even if he had already announced he was running i would only put him at like 90%. Today its back down to 10. That site has a tendency to badly over react to news articles. I was trying to find some sort of a Time and Sales for the contract but couldnt find one im curious how much you could have shorted above 90%.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

After seeing this chart on Intrade im finally going to open an account there. The contract for him to win the republican nominee went all the way up to 95, and closed above 90 yesterday all on that news article. As a reversion trader, i am salivating when i look at that, I mean even if he had already announced he was running i would only put him at like 90%. Today its back down to 10. That site has a tendency to badly over react to news articles. I was trying to find some sort of a Time and Sales for the contract but couldnt find one im curious how much you could have shorted above 90%.

Max, that is not 90%, but 9%!!! Not a good short there. They need to change those charts. In other words, the max value of the contract is 100, not 10. They are worth $10 per contract. So you are selling an option that pays off 10 to 1 against you at that level. Bad trade. The trade was earlier in the day lifting the 3's and tripling your money on the ride to 9. I'm bidding any pullback we can get. I would love to get long some at 5 to 7. That's a nice 20 to 1 payoff. But more realistically I want to sell the spike to 50 the day he announces. I don't want to stay long all the way into the primaries.

 

[Maverick74]

Here is the time and sales.

Last 5 Trades (last update: Sep 24, 12:45:45 PM EDT)
Click to trade Trade this now!
Sep 24, 12:36:37 PM EDT 5 Lots @ 8.7 Price is lower then before
Sep 24, 12:35:24 PM EDT 5 Lots @ 8.8 Price is same as before
Sep 24, 12:35:24 PM EDT 22 Lots @ 8.8 Price is same as before
Sep 24, 12:33:51 PM EDT 3 Lots @ 8.8 Price is same as before
Sep 24, 12:33:04 PM EDT 1 Lots @ 8.8 Price is same as before

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/js...actId=725544&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

 

[Max E.]

LOL, i corrected it just before you posted, i got confused because they are charting it in % terms not dollar terms. If it went all the way to 90% it would have been a beauty fade though. But yeah i got no real interest in shorting something 10-1 against me.

my bad.

Quote from Maverick74:

Max, that is not 90%, but 9%!!! Not a good short there. They need to change those charts. In other words, the max value of the contract is 100, not 10. They are worth $10 per contract. So you are selling an option that pays off 10 to 1 against you at that level. Bad trade. The trade was earlier in the day lifting the 3's and tripling your money on the ride to 9. I'm bidding any pullback we can get. I would love to get long some at 5 to 7. That's a nice 20 to 1 payoff. But more realistically I want to sell the spike to 50 the day he announces. I don't want to stay long all the way into the primaries.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

LOL, i corrected it just before you posted, i got confused because they are charting it in % terms not dollar terms. If it went all the way to 90% it would have been a beauty fade though.

my bad.

BTW, there is a lot of edge in these markets if you understand options and probabilities. Hell, even if you don't, there is a ton of edge!

 

[Max E.]

Quote from Maverick74:

BTW, there is a lot of edge in these markets if you understand options and probabilities. Hell, even if you don't, there is a ton of edge!

I agree, the problem would be the ability to get into our out of any decent size.

These markets obviously have a lot of unsophisticated people involved. The other news items i noticed which caused huge spikes that i was thinking was an awesome short was when we caught Bin Laden, the contract on Obama for 2012 went all the way to like 80% if i remember correctly.

Then another one i saw was the day the rebels first went into tripoli there was actually contracts going off on quadaffi being overthrown at 99.99% I mean who wouldnt short a bunch of contracts there knowing the most you were risking is a cent? I think it bounced down to like 88% after that so it was basically risk free money.

These markets have a tendency to over react to alot of news items. Though now that i see christie only went to 10% its not exactly a case of a horrible over reaction.

You can still go long Romney, Perry, and Christie and they only total 80%, a week ago you could have gotten in at close to 70%. I got to think that is pretty much free money, though i highly doubt you could have gotten off enough size to make it worth the time.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

I agree, the problem would be the ability to get into our out of any decent size.

These markets obviously have a lot of unsophisticated people involved. The other news items i noticed which caused huge spikes that i was thinking was an awesome short was when we caught Bin Laden, the contract on him for 2012 went all the way to like 80% if i remember correctly.

Then another one i saw was the day the rebels first went into tripoli there was actually contracts going off at 99.99% I mean who wouldnt short a bunch of contracts there knowing the most you were risking is a cent? I think it bounced down to like 88% after that so it was basically risk free money.


You can still go long Romney, Perry, and Christie and they only total 80% I got to think that is pretty much free money.

You would be surprised how much size comes into these markets. The book is empty but if you are paying attention, you'll see guys come in with 100 and 500 lots. The key in these markets is to remember you are not trading the event itself, you are trading people's perception of the event. This is a scalpers market. There is no reason to stay long contracts or short going into the
"final"' event.

All these contracts have a lot of gamma embedded in them. Any news items drive these contracts to the moon and then back. You just need to learn to trade the spikes. They are an option trader's dream because they are loaded with gamma without the theta.

 

[Max E.]

Well said, if i would have had those Obama contracts at 70 or 80 id be getting out right here.


The other one i noticed was how much Perry and Romney were bouncing around right after the debates.

Quote from Maverick74:

You would be surprised how much size comes into these markets. The book is empty but if you are paying attention, you'll see guys come in with 100 and 500 lots. The key in these markets is to remember you are not trading the event itself, you are trading people's perception of the event. This is a scalpers market. There is no reason to stay long contracts or short going into the
"final"' event.

All these contracts have a lot of gamma embedded in them. Any news items drive these contracts to the moon and then back. You just need to learn to trade the spikes. They are an option trader's dream because they are loaded with gamma without the theta.

 

[Max E.]

Do you think you could actualy make a living trading these markets?

I mean obviously not as much as a good traders makes in the market, but do you think you could bang out like 5-10k a month on these things?

Quote from Maverick74:

You would be surprised how much size comes into these markets. The book is empty but if you are paying attention, you'll see guys come in with 100 and 500 lots. The key in these markets is to remember you are not trading the event itself, you are trading people's perception of the event. This is a scalpers market. There is no reason to stay long contracts or short going into the
"final"' event.

All these contracts have a lot of gamma embedded in them. Any news items drive these contracts to the moon and then back. You just need to learn to trade the spikes. They are an option trader's dream because they are loaded with gamma without the theta.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Do you think you could actualy make a living trading these markets?

I mean obviously not as much as a good traders makes in the market, but do you think you could bang out like 5-10k a month on these things?

Are you kidding me? Man, let me open your eyes. There are prop firms in Europe that make markets on these exchanges. Not just intrade, but there is a big one in Europe very similar.

There is actually software you can buy that is very popular that helps you trade these markets. There are hedge funds getting into the game.

Most of the liquidity is in sporting events like Soccer, NBA, Tennis, etc.

This is one in Europe.

http://www.betfair.com/

Go to youtube and type in betfair or trading tennis or soccer and you will see high frequency traders in action and the software they use.