Choppy versus Trending

Quote from stevenpaul:




Snip...

However, I have yet to find any measure of S and R that demonstrates the above quoted claim with any tradable consistency. Maybe I don't have the right tools, but identifying support and resistance to an actionable degree actually seems harder to me than identifying when a trend is on and taking a position accordingly.
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Trading R and S can be done consistently.

Identifying R and S can be done precisely as well.

Above you post the solution as well.

Trend analysis trumps market range (S and R considerations) analysis. What makes trend analysis and all trading precise is the analysis of the leading indicator of Price, namely volume.

The rest of this post is where a person gets when he has handled one of the most tragic aspects of the financial industry. The industry has chosen to anchor volume to a horizontal line.

We all know of the spurs taken into a full spectrum of alternatives to the anchoring. Maybe some people have noticed that these alternatives don't get much column length in any publications either.

When a person, as a trader, has worked around and past this tragic foisting by vendors, etc... what is it like?

Just what is it like to have a leading indicator of price for trading? Effective and Efficient come to mind.

Read the literature on the markets and focus in on the published research. Nothing has been done yet to consider what the market's offer.

Imagine for a moment a person can see the market's offer. Let's do it this way. Imagine you have had an accident. You have sit out the repairs during shop time. But you get a loaner. So things are not so bad.

Lets get specific. You are Ivanoff, big piggie, trader787, traderzumes or Borneyesterday. What is busted and in the shop is your trading equipment.

I give you the loaner which only works my way. It comes with a 40 contract buying power on ES and it auto connects to your broker.

If you turn it on, it goes into the market on open and does segments on a level set by you: 4 to 7, 7 to 15, 15 to 20 , or up to 40. All segements are on the right side of the market for those different fractals.

It looks like zig zag trading. Each segment is completed for that fractal as the segments go by.

There is a plus. You do not have to think or make decisions; you just look at the profits build up. At close it shuts down and the buying power goes to zero and your account print is emailed to you so you can see all the charges for trading, etc.... the capital is there too except for the buying power.

No one would turn on the computer, we all know that. Some might actually take the loaner and just use the internet connection or the software for other than trading purposes. At least we know all people with loaners would be BS'ing on ET.

The real story is that anyone can trade the way the loaner computer trades. The way it worked out was that people did get equipped to do trading by having minds that do what the loaner computer does.

Why aren't there loaners for everyone? There is no vendor that can load a computer. People would like proof. Ask the vendors why they will not get their platforms shaped up.

So the necessity is to load a computer with what is available and use your mind to bridge the current gap. Trading is sort of waiting for a Facebook to subscribe to. I like watching small groups of guys in college or dropping out to create things like Facebook and becoming billionaires.

One fun event for my graduation was my alma mater not letting me have my lab manual back....lol..... They read me the fine print and they did own the stuff....LOL...

The loaner computer makes a physician's average annual salary in 12 hours. My lab manual wasn't that important....LOL...

Why can't people build their minds? They are mostly too smart....
 
Hi Jack,

Thanks for the intriguing perspective. I'm not very familiar with your approach to trading, so much of this goes over my head. To follow up on your statement about volume:

Quote from jack hershey:



The industry has chosen to anchor volume to a horizontal line.
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...am I to understand you take a market profiling view on volume? In other words, are you saying that it is better to peg volume to a vertical line, namely that of price itself? As I understand it, this is what market profiling analysis attempts to do--designate value in terms of price based on the performance of volume at a given time. Looking forward to more tidbits.

Steven
 
Quote from stevenpaul:

Hi Jack,

Thanks for the intriguing perspective. I'm not very familiar with your approach to trading, so much of this goes over my head. To follow up on your statement about volume:



...am I to understand you take a market profiling view on volume? In other words, are you saying that it is better to peg volume to a vertical line, namely that of price itself? As I understand it, this is what market profiling analysis attempts to do--designate value in terms of price based on the performance of volume at a given time. Looking forward to more tidbits.

Steven
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No, I do not.

Market profile is probably the next step on the way out of Price Action trading, which is inductively based.

I tried to state that not connecting a volume pane to an axis would be a good next move on the part of the platform providers. This is a difficult concept to handle and is not going to mean anything to most people.

My "other" chart of the market is done in 31 colors aside from the P V which is in red/black convention.

At some point a purposeful trader will consider leading indicators of what he trades. When that happens, trading takes on a new scope and bounds.

I spend most of my time being sure my leading indicators are popping along and informing me in the PRESENT. Obviously the only information a trader has is in the PRESENT.

In ET you see people have strong beliefs about mostly everything. For the most part these beliefs precipitate the stats on all traders as a group. The stats are failure prone and always will be. Almost all traders are operating from erroneous beliefs and believing MYTHS OF THE MARKET.

For years I have introduced unique and effective measures of the markets. AS ET has shown most people cannot understand what I posted and then they think they backtested something they thought I said. Two results happen: they get statisitcally insignificant results or they get astounding results better than ever posted anywhere. Both are incorrect.

If you wish, get out a note pad and invent 10 ways to deal with volume as a single variable which is not anchored to a horizontal axis. After the first five, you will begin to focus on getting "information" from dealing with volume.

Market profile is a way to combine P and V. It has merits. The downside is that some things are not observable.

There is one pattern in markets. This P, V pattern is the only one that could have been deduced. These words are not acceptable to mostly everyone. For those for whom the words are acceptable, they get to go into a critical thinking mode that is very productive.

In another thread there is a person who posts like a sit com character. He just wants the facts for some purpose of his. Filling a vacuum, maybe. He never gets the facts since he is unable to think.

People invest time and themsleves and they come to believe a system of things. This structure they have allows them to examine what is going on in the structure (a process happens). as they do the process with the structure they built they get results. I think of these results as tangibles (like making money) or as consequences (putting the person in a box of his own making). Each poster tells us the box he has placed himself in.
I respond, mostly, to people who have a chance of getting out of the box they are in and into a more satisfactory box. Most of those who read my stuff do not post. They are collecting these posts since they are made to explain more about where these people are in the box they and I have agreed to build and obtain benefits form that can be handed around in their communities.

My game is to enable problem solving in communities. Money extracted from the markets has very high utility when this is done.

Mr Black and I posted ES charts in a thread today about the same time. you can see our charts are similar and we both are using them to keep making money on each bar. My chart shows 6 of 11 of my panes.. The pattern is the subject of the displays.

Because the pattern of the market is a P, V pattern, I need to have the P and V observable to know that I know where I am in the pattern at all times. To make V more useful I feel it is a good idea to not anchor V to a horizontal axis. This is not understandable to others; but it is to some. As a consequence there are charts posted where V is not anchored to the horizontal axis.

what is gained primarily is that the pattern's progress is observable on several separate fractals, concurrently. Since fractal are interlocked together using the pattern, it is possible to see the future unfolding of the market. A detractor at ET chose to ridicule me out of his ignorance and anger and frustration. So I responded by posting all of the trades for the next day and the timing of a channel ending (within a few minutes). The next day I verified the calls I made the prior day.

I am able to voice my commitment to the system, its process and the results it achieves (for four generations). The reason is that it has been examined thoroughly in the light of the deductive process that created it.

Usually, my comments about induction as a process fall on deaf ears. Scientists do not do induction for example; they know better.

If a person sets up a structure and does an inductive process in it, he will get the results so common the the financial industry. People doing this kind of thing, measure others by their standard.

For all of these people, stated or not, what I espouse, falls to one side of the spectrum of what they do. They consistently and inductively, conclude I am full of shit.

I use a different standard than myself; I use the market as a standard; it performance fall to one side of me.

It is easy to see this spectrum which has three points. I am in the middle. The conventional approaches of others are much farther away from the market's performance than is my performance.

My conclusion is to laugh at the way people ridicule me.

Taking volume off the horizontal axis is not about me. Nothing in trading is about me. Everything in trading is about how a person thinks and carriews out the process of getting results. I recommend being scientific about it and using the market's offer as the standard.

One of the first steps is to always be on the right side of the market.

Another is to be IN the market as much as possible.

It is a simple zig zag where one P, V pattern is used in a linked manner on all fractals which, in turn, interlock the fractals.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

I spend most of my time being sure my leading indicators are popping along and informing me in the PRESENT. Obviously the only information a trader has is in the PRESENT.
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Hi again Jack,

Thanks for the lengthy reply. Again, I fear I don't have the appropriate context to appreciate much of what you are communicating. If you could direct me to a more entry-level explication of your techniques, that would be very helpful. I wonder, based on your statements about volume, if you prefer using volume-based bars on your charts, rather than time ones. I use Woodie's CCI system and have had good results with volume bars, as well as the usual range bars.
 
Quote from stevenpaul:

Hi again Jack,

Thanks for the lengthy reply. Again, I fear I don't have the appropriate context to appreciate much of what you are communicating. If you could direct me to a more entry-level explication of your techniques, that would be very helpful. I wonder, based on your statements about volume, if you prefer using volume-based bars on your charts, rather than time ones. I use Woodie's CCI system and have had good results with volume bars, as well as the usual range bars.
More...

No I do not use volume profile. When I began to plot charts in 1957, I got used to plotting P and V. I got sloppy, sort of, and started entering volume as numbers arranged by orders of magnitude. Suddenly, the crudeness jumped out at me in an informative manner.

It is fun to get the drill down on all the indicators. The great volatility/slope fights of all time happen there. The Interbar Gaussian Shift saved the day. Trades are best done NOT on the ends of bars (meaning close); the actual ends, H, L, are cool.

I would read four documents: "Dr Hu", "Building Minds for Building Wealth", "Channels for Building Wealth", and "Putting the Pieces Together"

The best way is to read the threads in the journals forum. They are highly organized and interactive and detractor free.
 
Market timing is very difficult to do successfully, or we'd all be rich. The stock market isn't predictable; that's why many investors jump into the market right at the peak of a bull run, just before the nosedive.
 
Quote from Fleming Snopes:

You will trade better if you forget about everything but identifying support and resistance. Chop can "trend" and trend can "chop." What counts is where they last were and where they want to go now.
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Well said FSnopes
 
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