Choosing a Trading System That Actually Works

Quote from Grob109:

What I think is happening is that I am being taken out by someone's protection being hit. My guess is that is it usually a stop being hit by someone who has previously entered prematurely on a trade based upon prediction.
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...so what you are saying is those who anticipate the change
but enter too early are giving you your "out" with their protective
stop.

Similarly a person who does not anticipate the change and
therefore enters too late is going to provide a possible "out" for
you -- or just add fuel to the fire once direction has turned.

Of course it all depends on the depth of their stop and the
ground covered by the traverse at hand.

Wow! I guess (everyone else's) protective stops really ARE vital
to making money :D!

JT
 
Quote from BA_Trader:

...so what you are saying is those who anticipate the change
but enter too early are giving you your "out" with their protective
stop.

Similarly a person who does not anticipate the change and
therefore enters too late is going to provide a possible "out" for
you -- or just add fuel to the fire once direction has turned.

Of course it all depends on the depth of their stop and the
ground covered by the traverse at hand.

Wow! I guess (everyone else's) protective stops really ARE vital
to making money :D!

JT
More...

If DOM is anything it is a list of protective stops.
 
Quote from Grob109:


Usually is is at a lower volume 2 pair that becomes a spike just after the two pair ends.
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Could we have a demo of this in real time please?
 
You post is really terrific and has many well chosen points.


Quote from BA_Trader:

...so what you are saying is those who anticipate the change
but enter too early are giving you your "out" with their protective
stop.

It is more that they "predict". I think there are "edges" out there that are fairly "rough", that is not focused well. I draw my left traverse line by the second bar of the traverse. This is like saying that 10 minutes max, kicks off the pace of the trend and where it's headed. As it goes on the volume really picks up. I am in as a consequence of reversing to take profits and get a full opportunity to make money.

By looking further back in time we come to what is before my "out". A lot of that action seems to be related to others protection being hit as a consequence of being premature in entering and then "the trade going against them" and hitting "tight" stops they use to not lose very much. i see this combination of stuff as typical "reaction" trading. the "rections" are the result of "predicting" and entering (taking the "bet"). It may all seem funny but if you look at the vocabulary of ET, there is a lot of fear and hope combos (See Nobel) that are just the opposite of what is needed to make money.

Similarly a person who does not anticipate the change and
therefore enters too late is going to provide a possible "out" for
you -- or just add fuel to the fire once direction has turned.

The fuel is what I see mostly, The hitches, stalls and dips along the first traverse set the stages of entries as the trend appears to exist for the herd. It is though a tentative nature of "fear" as the traverse "works" and "hope" as the stalls, dips and hitches resume in the direction of the traverse.

If you have read the scoring stuff for equities, it is clear that the frequency of Accumulation and distribution switches are more frequent than the volume acceleration/ deceleration and the price cycles. All 2:1 to each pairing.

Getting through end effects (taking profits and reentering for another collection) is the only dynamic of actions taken in trading. All else is being driven by the herd.

Of course it all depends on the depth of their stop and the
ground covered by the traverse at hand.

You have it for sure. We know both of these things in advance as well. The herd "telegraphs".

Your sentence is the type of sentence that drives the adventure of making money. You post the WOW that comes as the answers appear to you. We need to deal with the way the protection is there to see. The way it changes on the fringe of the operating point of price. And the extent to which it exists. All on both sides of the market (long and short).

All of this emphatically proves that price will never fall off the edge of the Earth. We can look at the DOM and see the restraints protection sets up for going anywhere. I use the odd rows for glancing at the scene. Doing the combinations and perminations of their relative magnitudes is like a kind of MLR for "how rough" the situation is.

I like the settled "translation" of the "making money sequencing" There is little "think" or "emoting being summoned". For "jumping and more than one tick spreads and lousy C's and P's of depth, I have to reason things through.

I look to see where other's protection is coming up to screw them and on which side (bid or asked). There is always a few guys popping stuff in and out and usually on one side only. Who cares, lol..

Largely I am powering my way through impediments when I have to. The "patience" thing.

All of the dynamic here is the "telegraphing".

Okay what about entry orders. When do they appear and where. Aside from market orders which I am monitoring as price on T&S. This is the "inside' of protection part to consider. This all "shows' as the Bbid/Bask on T&S streaming and is also showing on the top row of DOM. Most people set up entires that are "inside" the protection stops people are using.

This is two levels of consideration; two kinds of considerations. The character of each vis a vis the CW of the herd are very different. Protective stops "march along the DOM on both sides away from the Bbid and Bask. There is always a "largest" pile down the list.

The orders on the other hand are "flowing in" on the bbid/bask "depth". Translation is the log of this dynamic balance. The minority rules. Their orders do not pace the situation and the bbid/bask migrates for me to make more and more money.

This is how I define myself on the "right' side of the market. my positions are "pushed" to higher and higher profits.

Wow! I guess (everyone else's) protective stops really ARE vital
to making money :D!

JT
More...


There are many people who go through the adventure of making money. I posted the 20 Q's that scope out the path. Naturally, there are Q's on several levels of increasing focus for each of the 20Q's. this is a path to set up what a person wants to do as he connects to the market. A personalized path that the person perfects..

Many wise people here suggest and explain that "getting it" and "getting it right" has no substitute. Also, if you substitute your rules for trading that usurp the market's role, you get screwed.

I enjoy reading a lot of threads here and I do not participate in most of them. There is no point. They are not productive for anyone who is going to be very very wealthy.

But there are threads that do raise the Q's that lead to "getting it straight" for individuals who are going to be the winners. Markets are very giving. Tons and tons of money changes hands all the time...

At some point it is all KISS. You "read" it all and just take out what is offered continually. To get to KISS, you need to dump all the bull$hit in the garbage.

An annecdote. I had offices in the building on wall street where G. Washington had taken the oath. There was a fence there too.
(Treasury building).

It was one of my jobs to get some bicentennial action on Wall street lol.. So I commissioned some plays and got some musical agregations to get together some lunch time stuff for the troops on Wall street. Three little tasks to get to the "get go".

Portable collapsable stage platform. Tear down the fence and let the city know that Wednesday noons were going to be messed up by people blocking traffic if the steps weren't sufficient.

The first play was: "1, 2, 3, 4 dump the tea and start the war". "theatre in a trunk" were the performers. As you can see, the fence was disposed of permenantly. Out of towners can look at movies and see the disappearnace that way. Whoopie Goldberg's was a good one.

Moral of the story: Dump the garbage and start your personalized trading with no BS or usurping the market's roles..
 
Gosh! Is THAT what I've been doing wrong for the last decade! I feel so silly. Will get back to work post-haste and develop the holy grail with that information. Once I've done so, will be sure to share it with everyone so that we can usher in a new era of prosperity... Just heard about this great new trading tool called the "moving average." Can't wait to test it out.

:sigh: if only it was that easy.

"futures trading is associated with a substantial risk of loss. In fact, if we had our way, we would just deposit your entire account as a commission. However, since we do have laws and need to 'play fair', we'll simply encourage you to trade frequently and generate hefty commissions. If we can only get 25% of your account before you blow out, well, its not nearly enough but guess its better than nothing. Good luck!"

Not as cynical in real life as in this post.
 
Amen, man. You gotta put in the sweat and blood into MAKING it yourself. Noone's gonna share a good system with you. You might get lucky but thats like hitting a lottery. Good systems dont get sold and they dont get shared for free either. Thats a fact and exceptions only prove it, as they say. The longer you put off doing the tedious work, the further you put yourself away from making it in trading. Trust me, I wasted years waiting for the Prince on a white horse ride by and give me keys to the castle. It aint happening. You gotta storm the castle and take it over by force. Too much trouble? Step down and make way for those who are up to the task.


Quote from dbphoenix:

If you want something that "works", change the word "choosing" to "creating".
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Quote from Grob109:

I look to see where other's protection is coming up to screw them and on which side (bid or asked). There is always a few guys popping stuff in and out and usually on one side only. Who cares, lol..

Largely I am powering my way through impediments when I have to. The "patience" thing.
More...

I was doing this -- "seeing" this today in the PM long channel...
we had no blocks to nailing a pt3 for the channel. I was
watching those up spurts... and thinking in terms of where the
protection was sitting. Very relaxing.

When the R-L traverse came -- I was thinking of the pain they
were feeling after being stopped out of their longs. I could "see"
this emotion as prices shot up through the traverse.

Also - very interesting to "see" the herd as the volume starts
pinwheeling. More importantly to see when the herd is making
a probable mistake.

Great stuff (as usual) thanks for the post.

JT
 
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