Chipoltes

Yes, true. Still, they are priced for perfection. With that said I like selling the short dated straddle and buying a later dated strangle. I'll see how it prices tomorrow.

earnings in a covid shitshow. There is a 90% chance I won't put on a trade here.
 
what bullish stock.

for such stock, simply use a straight ruler to trade.
but it is definitely to late to long this stock.

as in TSLA, there is absolutely no sign it is reversing direction to go down.
 
vanzandt said:
There's one thing I might have missed. They can run their stores with fewer employees. I think. That might be important. I was thinking about that earlier.
More...

I'm not afraid to admit to a mistake. They are using fewer employees. Thats a big deal.

Before all this crap happened, you could go into any CMG at any given time and there'd be at least 12 employees in them. At least. I used to count while in line. Not even close now.

Figure they cut 4 people. Figure $13/hr as a nationwide average when you include workmens comp etc. That's probably low. 10 hours day. That's $520/day per store. 2200 stores. 90 days in the quarter.

Thats $103MM saved. 27 Million shares outstanding. That's almost $3.80/share. They are forecast to only make $0.19 this quarter! Everything I said about their metrics and the new costs associated with the business... that $3.80/share (albeit a rough estimate at best) provides a lot of fluff for the accountants to work with.

I don't know how the revenues will be, they'll probably beat there too because you can bet the estimates have all been low-balled and I haven't seen any revisions... but I'm gonna say they are going to smoke earnings.

So bottom line... don't short this thing for earnings tonight.

It was a bad idea.
The time is not right. Yet. Its still way overvalued, but Wall Street trades on news, and I think they are going to beat by a mile tonight.
 
vanzandt said:
I'm not afraid to admit to a mistake. They are using fewer employees. Thats a big deal.

Before all this crap happened, you could go into any CMG at any given time and there'd be at least 12 employees in them. At least. I used to count while in line. Not even close now.

Figure they cut 4 people. Figure $13/hr as a nationwide average when you include workmens comp etc. That's probably low. 10 hours day. That's $520/day per store. 2200 stores. 90 days in the quarter.

Thats $103MM saved. 27 Million shares outstanding. That's almost $3.80/share. They are forecast to only make $0.19 this quarter! Everything I said about their metrics and the new costs associated with the business... that $3.80/share (albeit a rough estimate at best) provides a lot of fluff for the accountants to work with.

I don't know how the revenues will be, they'll probably beat there too because you can bet the estimates have all been low-balled and I haven't seen any revisions... but I'm gonna say they are going to smoke earnings.

So bottom line... don't short this thing for earnings tonight.

It was a bad idea.
The time is not right. Yet. Its still way overvalued, but Wall Street trades on news, and I think they are going to beat by a mile tonight.
More...

Appreciate your tip on OLLI, its screaming! Your one of the few people who were willing to step up to OLLI when all hell was busting loose.
 
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