Chinese devaluation

[dealmaker]

I don't know why its such a surprise this guy already predicted it and even reccomended a huge trade on the chinese devaluing its currency

Its not a surprise, if you follow the Global Macro Hedge funds almost all the large ones were on this trade. It definitely was a surprise to average Chinese or Chinese institutions who were sold on Chinese nationalism and Chinese government kool-aid.

 

[cdcaveman]

Geez he is right on so many basis.... Oil boom financing.... Tons of global risk buried by cheap interest rates in the USD....he also calls for US equities are bound to take a hit... He has such a good thesis... Literally calls the option leaps on the rem..
Gold silver... Etc etc... All deflationary signs

 

[cdcaveman]

Well I don't trade macro directly... But I've been learning a paying attention because its obvious it largest current

 

[cdcaveman]

Yes. It is the September expiry. I am not sure what you find to be contradictory.

What has me confused is why there is always a 100% probability of "a" rate hike. There should be a column for prob% of 0.00 rate hike. Perhaps, even a cut. I am not sure if it is a limitation in the calc (ie Fed Funds above 100)) or presentation format.

Sorry I thought you were saying you were not considering fed funds futures but that metric I thought was derived that way

 

[heavenskrow]

Here is another link from a Hedge fund manager that partnered with Kyle Bass in shorting MBS back in 06 talking about Chinese devaluing its currency back in 2014.

https://teaser.realvisiontv.com/136007522
Really insightful to what is going on in global macro right now. I wish I made enough money from trading to subscribe to this investor channel. Way better than any CNBC garbage
"Skip to 55:00"" if you want to get straight to the devaluing part and not the history of his fund."

 

[cdcaveman]

CNBC is def garbage...... Pure salad shooting... I've been watch aljasira for news hahah

 

[Sergio77]

Manipulation to increase the trade deficit with the US and prevent manufacturing leaving the country.

 

[cdcaveman]

Ya then the Senate gets mad about other countries taking the same measures

 

[felixbocharov]

I think this devaluation of the yuan would give Chinese exporters a relief of price pressure. This in turn, would help US consumers aka Wal-mart

 

[cdcaveman]

It's like gas.. It falls slower at the pump then it rises.... It's just how the market adjusts to the risk.. I would imagine Walmart would be like that to with imports....