China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next?

metalztrader said:
To say China's real estate problems are going to be easy to fix is absurd. The scale of what they have done is just awesome. We are in uncharted territory with no equivalent to compare them to.

There is no mystery with what happens here. Problems get swept under the rug until something implodes.

That can could get kicked down the road another 10-20 years though. That is why I have got long the Hang Seng the last month. The sentiment on the Chinese economy is so negative that a lot of downside risk is priced in here unless there is a total economic meltdown and they have the tools to cause that to not happen.

I just finished the book Chinese Leaders: Mao To Now. Really great book with a chapter on each leader of China from Mao to Xi. What is easy to forget with China is just how recent this whole economic experiment they have been doing is. The systemic problem they have though is there is no mechanism for economic correction so economic problems accumulate and those are all pooling into real estate. What also stands out in that book is there is only 6 chapters. We see how US leaders will do what they have to in order to delay economic days of reckoning and kick it down the road. That is even more so in the Chinese system since it is just so much newer. Real estate collapse is going to be a leaders main chapter theme in that book at some point in the future. The day of reckoning is not going to happen under Xi. Have to assume part of the fix here is to build more infrastructure.
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So you are a counter-trend trader?

HOY was back in February, all downhill since. What's going to change to cause price to reverse?

! HSI trend.png


I much prefer to short what is going down and buy what is going up.
 
"Communism will end in China with a good old capitalist crash"
--George Soros

I think it is from Soros on Soros?

mervyn said:
HSI is a good call but being a US person you can't buy 2833 in IBKR since Trump's ban. I suppose EWH works. ASHR and KWEB are only ETFs I track since.
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HeSaidSheSaid said:
merde! there're a lot of communist sympathizers on this board!
those fair weather "fans" hypocrites! .:)
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that’s right, on the back of people’s mind, namely piketty in recent best selling book on wealth redistribution. communism is theorized and practiced by two famous secular jews, mind you. china is in no way a real commie state.

in all seriousness, microeconomics 101, demand and supply, elasticity and substitution, work the same way throughout history regardless ideology. in macroeconomics, you got into ideology, winston, teddy, and all the rebuildings post war, world bank, imf, to present day trump, bradon, we were all keynes.
 
metalztrader said:
"Communism will end in China with a good old capitalist crash"
--George Soros

I think it is from Soros on Soros?
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in time, when ccp is done, there will be another authoritative dynasty.

some are lucky to see the rise of an empire, some are unfornature to see the fall.
 
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