China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next?

ETJ said:
You're already seeing credit downgrades and asset sales. Massive RE defaults and projects that cancel or remain uncompleted, and political unrest - so far pretty much describe what is happening here as well. Reduction in belt/suspenders and military investment. More asset flight to the West. Hong Kong continues to be less relevant with other Asian destinations capitalizing. I suspect you'll eventually see capital restrictions and cheap Russian oil won't be cheap enough
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ANOTHER big problem for the chicoms\ can't make a good omelet with bad eggs.
BricS ran into another snag. Putin cant attend the meeting ,Putin= war criminal, with a warrant existing for his arrest
NOT to worry huh, because some say LTCM AUG 1998 problem was leverage + not Russians not paying on their bonds??
WHAT could possibly go wrong with that LOL??:D:D Looks like chicoms+ evil empire russia is better than average propaganda, so they may not fail tomorrow. NOT a prediction .
Evil empire, russia ,is on record saying ''treaties are like pie crusts\made to be broken''.
 
mervyn said:
no more than what we had in 08. their financial system is not leveraged, only their developers in the headline. ours were up to our eyebow.
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Yeah I'm pretty sure they will solve this through state intervention, whether that is helicopter money or something more nuanced. Any kind of problem with numbers on books can be solved if there is a political will to. It's just a question of how fast Xi gets it.
 
Snuskpelle said:
Yeah I'm pretty sure they will solve this through state intervention, whether that is helicopter money or something more nuanced. Any kind of problem with numbers on books can be solved if there is a political will to. It's just a question of how fast Xi gets it.
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Xi’s message is very clear, he gets it. But he doesn’t like the billionaires who don’t even have the Chinese passports. Evergrande filed bankruptcy protection in US court, Countrywide ownership is offshore entity. Xi will kill the fat goose, unlike US billionaires got bailout. Aftermaths is easy to contain, lot of small developers waiting to crave out what’s left from the big ones.
 
There are too many Ds... derisking... decoupling... I was there more then 20 years ago on work project(moving production equipment there). When corporate heads make decision on manufacturing facilities, it's 5-10 years decision. In my area, I could really felt the present of the rich ones from China. It definitely has something to do with the policy shift. Otherwise, why bother uprooting a rich and comfortable life in China. The idea that it's impossible to move factories out of China is flawed. Using real estate to drive the economy is bad. Do they really need the many homes? It's total mismanagement of asset allocation.
 
I have just read an analysis by a person who spent 2 months there talking to actual people. The unemployment among the youth is 21% according to the government but they will stop publishing it because the real number could be around 40%. The older generation isn't much better, for example in construction if over 50 you can not be employed. Even in general employment if you are over 35, you maybe too old.

So what does the government do when they have a large, young population unsatisfied at home? They send them to wars...

old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/15xgm7j/i_just_spent_two_months_in_china_dont_believe_the/

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252Fwallstreetbets%252Fcomments%252F15xgm7j%252F
 
Pekelo said:
I have just read an analysis by a person who spent 2 months there talking to actual people. The unemployment among the youth is 21% according to the government but they will stop publishing it because the real number could be around 40%. The older generation isn't much better, for example in construction if over 50 you can not be employed. Even in general employment if you are over 35, you maybe too old.

So what does the government do when they have a large, young population unsatisfied at home? They send them to wars...

old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/15xgm7j/i_just_spent_two_months_in_china_dont_believe_the/

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252Fwallstreetbets%252Fcomments%252F15xgm7j%252F
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only his disclaimer is legit, This is all anecdotal, so this is only my first-hand observations. Feelings are useless in trading. You are a moron if you trade off a story versus hard facts.

But he doesn’t know shit. US Youth Unemployment is 19.3% last month according to St Louis Fed, which has been discussed in another thread. No one pays attention to the kids. He feels it is 5% because everyone is that age group is in school, more or less.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?eid=48595&rid=50

Also on the subject the data truefullness, I can tell you no serious economists question the data, including ours, only on the margin. IMF and World Bank sets a framework and definitions of how to report each economic activities so one country can assess other countries data, otherwise that privilege would be forfeited, and these two bodies will step in to do their estimates.

But the feeling of next war is mutual over Taiwan or South China Sea for sure, same as the war in Europe. Big war can reset the asset bubbles worldwide and shift the balance of power. No one can tell the next 40 years but I personally think it will not be the same, so get prepared.
 
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