China will fall behind around 2020-2030

[trefoil]

Quote from Visaria:

China will become the most powerful country in the world, both economically and militarily by 2020 and remain there for decades.

Perhaps just as importantly, I see the end of official communism within 5-10 yrs. I suspect people will revolt against corruption and the silly communist party system will be swept away.

imho.

If the communists really are swept away and - this is the important part - replaced by a real, functioning republic, that will be the point when you can finally and truly say they will dominate the world.

 

[777]

I disagree that Chinese will fall in the next 10-20 years since my observation of the Chinese is that they are ruthless businessmen and the people have a "take no prisoners" type of attitude when dealing with foreigners. They are bred to sacrifice mind and body with the sole objective to become " the world #1 economy".
I think they will adapt strategies as time move forward and will maintain dominance for a longer time than most people project. The Chinese are more creative than you think ... copying products and evading legal hurdles for the last 20 years, is not an easy feat.

My opinion is to give them more credit and respect them for what they have achieved in the last 40 years. Know that they will deceive and cheat to get their way. Accumulation of money is their prime objective at all levels of the Chinese society.

You had a good read on the situation.

Injecting more free market thinking and becoming better and better at stealing helped a lot

And most importantly, your big picture read is spot on.

 

[Cuddles]

This video shows some convincing arguments why China will fall behind around 2020-2030. Start watching around 0:32:00.

In summary and in my opinion based on observation, the Chinese dynasty rulers disappointed and failed the entire Chinese civilization because in their ambition to hold on to their powers, they had implemented policies that stymied scientific and technological progress through innovation. And today, the Chinese government, in their effort to retained their power and legitimacy, have not yet realized the importance of innovation, value, and quality over quantity and mass sweat labor, or have not gathered enough political will, even with their latest 5-year plan, to promote innovation, or have not done enough. The Chinese government and the dynasty rulers are doing almost the same thing: maintaining slave labors and obedience in fearing innovations and free thinking would challenge the system.

This is THE FATAL FLAW of the Chinese civilization. A system that does not permit the mind to flourish will perish. After all, what can possibly be more powerful than the mind?

Any thoughts?

This reads like a whole lotta cope. As much as I despise authoritarians, if you can't see the writing on the wall as the Chinese expand their sphere of influence worldwide and get closer to dethrone the US as the foremost superpower, you really just need to put money into a safe ETF as you have no business trading.

 

[ironchef]

Capitalism and innovation are in their blood for 5000 years and will not change. Hard work, hardships and sacrifice too.

Political totalitarian and dictatorship have been their political system for 5000 years, throughout their history so the plebs learned how to cope and thrive, up to a point.

Unless they have famine and war, dictatorship will not slow them down, perhaps only speed them up to achieve parity with the US.

 

[Overnight]

Capitalism and innovation are in their blood for 5000 years and will not change. Hard work, hardships and sacrifice too...

Last cool thing to come out of China that they came up with themselves was gunpowder.

Now the only thing they come up with is lead in practically every product they export.

 

[xandman]

Great lecture. The man is using his intellect for a noble mission.

Assuming he is using a robust model for the factors of GDP growth, the world has a problem.

If you were around while the Japanese were buying up America in the 80s and people were trying to learn how to speak Japanese, you know that macro-trees don't grow to the sky.

 

[Real Money]

Related. Speed it up. The first speaker is pretty good. Arguments are presented.

 

[richie90]

You had a good read on the situation.

Injecting more free market thinking and becoming better and better at stealing helped a lot

And most importantly, your big picture read is spot on.

Hey 777,
Having lived in China and being embedded among them at both the academic level and the Factory/Manufacturing companies, gave me my prospective on the Chinese mentality.

Hope all is good with you.
-Richie

 

[jl1575]

Not really. Ancient China invented paper and gunpowder, very significant inventions at that time. Paper-making was in fact transmitted from China to Europe via the Middle East. History tells us Chinese mathematics were at least several centuries ahead of their western counterparts. For example, Partial pivoting in Gaussian elimination was already described in 12th century Chinese texts before its advent in the west in the 18th century. In Numerial analysis, Horner's rule was discovered six centuries before in China.

For much of history, China did have a higher living and civilizational standard than the West. But for a multitude of reasons, by the 14th-15th century, China began to stagnate. Some historians think it is as a result of successive emperors banning sea travel and gradually becoming more and more insular. The exchange of goods and more importantly ideas petered out. On the other hand, Europeans with the age of enlightenment and exploration, absorbed new peoples, new ideas, new colonies and finally with the industrial revolution, the West overtook the East.

But civilizations rise and fall, and today it is the west that is stagnating. It is not difficult to see what the future holds, history repeats itself over and over again.

Here are some thoughts:

1) China produces far more engineering college graduates every years and these kids are smart and working hard; and we all know technology is a powerful thing to drive the economy
2) Chinese engineers (lots of them) work 12 hours a day compare to 8 hours here; they have a target to compete so they are very motivated
3) China now can afford to hire high quality engineers and attract top talents for innovation; for example, Huawei pays a salary more than $600,000 (US dollars) to about 1000 engineers.
4) The unity in the nation and patriotism can be so powerfully positive in many ways (there is downside for that too)
5) the AI research publications and patents is only second to US.
6) The culture rooted in thousand years provide a deep and strong moral and ideology support to fuel the advancement of technology and economy; because they are deep down very proud of their culture and heritage, Chinese can be viewed as quite arrogant and racism too, and that is why many regard them as rivals or even enemy. Most people in the western world would hardly understand them, but people from Korean, Japan and Singapore would understand them better. More people show interest in the Chinese culture in the last decade and more and more foreign students are now enrolled in colleges in China.
7) What China has done in the last 35 to 40 years are truly incredible, not only the economy becomes the 2nd largest in the world (by Purchasing power parity, China is the #1 economy in the world since 2018 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/208rank.html) , about 800 million people were out of poverty; that is a huge accomplishment if people understand what living conditions were in China in the 50s to 70s in last century.
8) The government control is far different from that was 35 to 40 years ago, and China is in a hybrid mode of communism and capitalism; the government has to compromise to advance their economy agenda in this information era .
9) Just remember what Napoleon said about China. Of course ignorance is bliss if you choose to ignore the facts and indulge in any model you favor.

 

[Cuddles]

This reads like a whole lotta cope. As much as I despise authoritarians, if you can't see the writing on the wall as the Chinese expand their sphere of influence worldwide and get closer to dethrone the US as the foremost superpower, you really just need to put money into a safe ETF as you have no business trading.

damn, just realized I responded to an 8 yr old thread that aged like fine milk