China will fall behind around 2020-2030

[trefoil]

I'm of two minds here.
I think we outside of China hugely underestimate the domestic part of their economy. What they export is important, but internal trade, between Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, to take the three major metro centers, is huge. Then there are all the secondary cities, not including the industrial 'burbs of these three.
Which is why it doesn't surprise me that they're already second in R&D spending.
But they face massive challenges, from the fallout of their one child policy to the biggest one of all: property rights. It's still a dictatorship, and that means everything, all that alleged private property, can be seized at any time for any reason at any time of the day or night the authorities think it's right. Rule of law is still, well, let's be charitable and say it's embryonic.
I'm no fan of India, but it has better rule of law, is a democracy with the respect for property rights that entails, and of course never suffered from a top-down one child policy. Between the two, if I were looking fifty years out, I'd have to say India has the advantage over China because of these considerations.

 

[oldtime]

The thing is, China has been at this a long time, since before the birth of Christ, long before USA was ever even conceived. We have a few hundred millions, they have billions.

We are concerned we may be getting too socialist. They have been through a full blown communist revolution. We have food stamps. Who knows how many Chinese just simply starve to death each year?

We have an "Occupy Wall Street" movement. They have so many demonstrations each day they can't even keep track of them anymore.

And they have been at this a long time.

 

[jj90]

Quote from Willleung:

You have to account for the different culture, in CN they are into Counterfeit goods (or food, scary shit) and corruption instead of running drugs.

Excellent on the ground observations by Will. Buddy of mine got back from doing a stint there (he is Taiwanese) and you wouldn't believe the stuff they are doing with food. Google 'gutter oil' if you want to know more.

Oldtime acutally makes a good point, even with all the repression China has had some good advances. Are we just seeing the limitations that China has, or are we not seeing the potential growth if the stifling is removed?

 

[OrangeJuiceUP]

-China is not in debt
-China is not getting into debt
-Chinese population are savers
-China is not in military war with anyone
-China prefers business arrangements over military arrangements

 

[MathAndLogic]

Quote from Grandluxe:

The problem is you can't just take a snapshot of a country now and try to deduce any kind of meaningful conclusion from it without taking into account it's history and culture.

Taking into account China's history, I see a repeating themes: same underlying serfdom from dynasty to dynasty with no creativity, no advancement in science and math, no evolution in social policies, and no elevation of the people's mind. It is the same Confucius teaching since 500 BCE. How pathetic! I would read a different book everyday if I have the time. Within its borders, China changed dynasty just like changing clothes on a rotten corpse. How pitiful !

Invasions from more scientifically advanced West were well deserved, even though I wish there would be just scientific and technological transfer without the blood shed. But I guess with China being rotten to the core in the last 2 centuries, blood shed and pain and the Cultural Revolution was the only way to wake up a dead civilization, just as the phoenix will rise from the ashes.

Whatever Niall Ferguson said about the East downloading the 6 killer apps of the West, I think China has not downloaded the most important part. China government today, as it always has been in its dynasty era, is afraid of and resents criticism and questioning. But a system that is resistant to change is a fossil, a fossil of civilization; a system that is afraid of criticism and challenge is a religion and is not science. Science will thrive where religious dogmas die. China has not waken up.

When will China wake up? That is when there are either natural or engineered social incentives (such as governmental social policies) for the smart people in China to interbreed for a few generations just as the Jews have done for the past few centuries. That is when the Chinese leaders can altruistically implement national policies that elevate the mind of the Chinese civilization instead of their own bank account. But until then, the world revolves around the West, and around the Jews. (Get real, the modern science and finance of the West owe much to the Jews, and not surprisingly, owned much by the Jews. A painful inconvenient truth.)

I should also say that, unless the Palestinians and the Muslims can create a sub-breed of their own smart scientists who can develop their science, technology, and finance of equal brilliance, they will always be under the slaughter ax of Israel and the West.

Peace is not a gift of kindness and generosity of one's neighbors. It has to be actively achieved, and there is better chance of it when nations are nearly equal in all aspects.

 

[Willleung]

Quote from zdreg:

what about the US?

" hate the inequalities imposed on the masses."
why do you care? where does impose come from?

I care, coz I am a chinese, my family were from the mainland, and we still have distance relative there. I don't know enough about the US to make a comment, this part you might have to fill us in

The poorer part of the population can't afford education for their children in the city, or healthcare. Then you see news report where govt officals got busted for corruption having 5 or 10 million USD. It's a shit hole behind all the fireworks mate.

 

[Visaria]

China will become the most powerful country in the world, both economically and militarily by 2020 and remain there for decades.

Perhaps just as importantly, I see the end of official communism within 5-10 yrs. I suspect people will revolt against corruption and the silly communist party system will be swept away.

imho.

 

[Grandluxe]

Quote from MathAndLogic:

Taking into account China's history, I see a repeating themes: same underlying serfdom from dynasty to dynasty with no creativity, no advancement in science and math, no evolution in social policies, and no elevation of the people's mind. It is the same Confucius teaching since 500 BCE. How pathetic! I would read a different book everyday if I have the time. Within its borders, China changed dynasty just like changing clothes on a rotten corpse. How pitiful !

Invasions from more scientifically advanced West were well deserved, even though I wish there would be just scientific and technological transfer without the blood shed. But I guess with China being rotten to the core in the last 2 centuries, blood shed and pain and the Cultural Revolution was the only way to wake up a dead civilization, just as the phoenix will rise from the ashes.

Whatever Niall Ferguson said about the East downloading the 6 killer apps of the West, I think China has not downloaded the most important part. China government today, as it always has been in its dynasty era, is afraid of and resents criticism and questioning. But a system that is resistant to change is a fossil, a fossil of civilization; a system that is afraid of criticism and challenge is a religion and is not science. Science will thrive where religious dogmas die. China has not waken up.

When will China wake up? That is when there are either natural or engineered social incentives (such as governmental social policies) for the smart people in China to interbreed for a few generations just as the Jews have done for the past few centuries. That is when the Chinese leaders can altruistically implement national policies that elevate the mind of the Chinese civilization instead of their own bank account. But until then, the world revolves around the West, and around the Jews. (Get real, the modern science and finance of the West owe much to the Jews, and not surprisingly, owned much by the Jews. A painful inconvenient truth.)

I should also say that, unless the Palestinians and the Muslims can create a sub-breed of their own smart scientists who can develop their science, technology, and finance of equal brilliance, they will always be under the slaughter ax of Israel and the West.

Peace is not a gift of kindness and generosity of one's neighbors. It has to be actively achieved, and there is better chance of it when nations are nearly equal in all aspects.

Not really. Ancient China invented paper and gunpowder, very significant inventions at that time. Paper-making was in fact transmitted from China to Europe via the Middle East. History tells us Chinese mathematics were at least several centuries ahead of their western counterparts. For example, Partial pivoting in Gaussian elimination was already described in 12th century Chinese texts before its advent in the west in the 18th century. In Numerial analysis, Horner's rule was discovered six centuries before in China.

For much of history, China did have a higher living and civilizational standard than the West. But for a multitude of reasons, by the 14th-15th century, China began to stagnate. Some historians think it is as a result of successive emperors banning sea travel and gradually becoming more and more insular. The exchange of goods and more importantly ideas petered out. On the other hand, Europeans with the age of enlightenment and exploration, absorbed new peoples, new ideas, new colonies and finally with the industrial revolution, the West overtook the East.

But civilizations rise and fall, and today it is the west that is stagnating. It is not difficult to see what the future holds, history repeats itself over and over again.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Grandluxe:

Not really. Ancient China invented paper and gunpowder, very significant inventions at that time. Paper-making was in fact transmitted from China to Europe via the Middle East. History tells us Chinese mathematics were at least several centuries ahead of their western counterparts. For example, Partial pivoting in Gaussian elimination was already described in 12th century Chinese texts before its advent in the west in the 18th century. In Numerial analysis, Horner's rule was discovered six centuries before in China.

For much of history, China did have a higher living and civilizational standard than the West. But for a multitude of reasons, by the 14th-15th century, China began to stagnate. Some historians think it is as a result of successive emperors banning sea travel and gradually becoming more and more insular. The exchange of goods and more importantly ideas petered out. On the other hand, Europeans with the age of enlightenment and exploration, absorbed new peoples, new ideas, new colonies and finally with the industrial revolution, the West overtook the East.

But civilizations rise and fall and today, it is the west that is stagnating. It is not difficult to see what the future holds, history repeats itself over and over again.

yes,the most interesting is Switzerland. They are the most libertarian of all countries. Stayed neutral during WWII, as far as I know never had a colony other than Swiss Colony Wine. But if you want to bet on geopolitics thay will always take that bet. Their currency got so strong that even the average man in the street said, "Trash it!" Not sure why we can't be more like them, or for that matter everybody including China can't be more like them.

I don't know that much about it, but it seems to me they kind of have the right idea.

Actually, part of my family came here from Switzerland. They still live in the old house where the barn is attached to the kitchen. If you want to make eggs for breakfast, you just open up the door and go out to the nests and snitch a few.

My grandfather came here because he was the youngest male and there was nothing left for him back there. It was all spoken for by his older brothers. And they and their families still live there quite happily.

He was one of the few who didn't do to well in USA, but then again, he was goyam, and spent his last years unemployed, laid off, living off his union pension.

 

[WD40]

Quote from MathAndLogic:

This video shows some convincing arguments why China will fall behind around 2020-2030. Start watching around 0:32:00.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbeXz_hciqk

In summary and in my opinion based on observation, the Chinese dynasty rulers disappointed and failed the entire Chinese civilization because in their ambition to hold on to their powers, they had implemented policies that stymied scientific and technological progress through innovation. And today, the Chinese government, in their effort to retained their power and legitimacy, have not yet realized the importance of innovation, value, and quality over quantity and mass sweat labor, or have not gathered enough political will, even with their latest 5-year plan, to promote innovation, or have not done enough. The Chinese government and the dynasty rulers are doing almost the same thing: maintaining slave labors and obedience in fearing innovations and free thinking would challenge the system.

This is THE FATAL FLAW of the Chinese civilization. A system that does not permit the mind to flourish will perish. After all, what can possibly be more powerful than the mind?

Any thoughts?

What are they going to do to you between now and 2030?