China will be the top economy in 20 years

T

turkeyneck

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- When it comes to China, history is bound to repeat itself and investors should be ready.

"People don't realize that in 1820, China was not only the most populated nation in the world, not only with the most land area, but was the greatest economic power in the world," said Princeton University Economics Prof. Burton Malkiel, who had a packed room of portfolio managers, analysts and certified financial planners hanging on his every word Wednesday evening at a presentation for the CFA Society of Los Angeles.

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China will be the biggest economy but definitely not the top if you agree that the biggest is not necessarily the best.

Even though I am a Chinese, I won't even count China in the top 3 category.

Actually I always feel that the US guys are over-sensitive of China's rise.

Having that said, China has been the most powerful country for a long long time right recent history. I can tell you that >90% Chinese are also not aware of this. But again, even in the past, China has most of its time being invaded or occupied by minorities or other countries. Only in 10% of its time it was the invader. But every time the invaders became assimilated. That is why the dynasties kept on expanding (b'coz the land expanded as the land of the invaders were included in the new dynasty).

So China's real power is to get invaded , survive, and assimilate the invaders instead of really actively going out to invade other countries.

Even nowadays the Chinese are the same. Chinese are quite famous of NOT being patriotic. Most of us hv a tendency to care much more about our day-to-day life instead of caring who our ruler is (even if he/she is a foreigner).

In WW2, most of the casualties in the Japanese army were actually Chinese. It is b'coz they wanted to survive and obey the orders of whoever was able to feed them. Of course, this is also a kind of lack of character...
 
Quote from bunds:

WRONG - Russia will.
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Russia and China are really on two extremes. Both are gaining more power but the characters of their ppl are completely different.

It is like Yin and Yan, fire and water.

Even China's recent rise is due to millions and millions of ppl working like dogs getting very little pay. It is just our sheer population that makes China's GDP to be so big.
 
Russia has a problem with:

a) rapidly declining population.

b) having an economy 80% dependent on Oil & Gas.

If/when we move away from fossil fuels, Russia is screwed. Too corrupt, and too drunk.
 
i think what you'll see is 3 different economic powerhouse zones. not a single country.


euro
asia
america's

each having a large consumer base with lower income countries to do the low paying manufacturing jobs.

finally africa begins to emerge as the new emerging markets to throw everything out of whack
 
If China ever becomes the economic power it appears to want to be it will become a serious military threat to the Muslim Religions intent to conquer the world.Pay attention to what the Muslim radicals are saying.Most of the gentler kinder Muslims are fellow travelers.
While we in the west are willing to shackle ourselves in our defense I don't think the Chinese will.
 
euro
asia
america's

each having a large consumer base with lower income countries to do the low paying manufacturing jobs.

finally africa begins to emerge as the new emerging markets to throw everything out of whack.

euro---no guts
america---no will
asia---no self imposed shackles.
africa--never under african leaders

Just my opinion.
 
China and India will surely rise in economic growth but will they reach the First World status is highly doubtful. EU might overtake US in terms of GDP and growth.

Brazil is another confident looking country.

Russia will do well only under strong leadership and higher energy prices. Russians have to win over their own selves in order to be a real power again.

The main danger to these countries is the practice of corruption rooted in the culture. Corruption is like an acid that destroys even a powerful system of 'free markets'. One reason free markets flourished in North America is the pretty high degree of fairness and honor in the daily business practices.
 
Quote from toc:

China and India will surely rise in economic growth but will they reach the First World status is highly doubtful. EU might overtake US in terms of GDP and growth.

Brazil is another confident looking country.

Russia will do well only under strong leadership and higher energy prices. Russians have to win over their own selves in order to be a real power again.

The main danger to these countries is the practice of corruption rooted in the culture. Corruption is like an acid that destroys even a powerful system of 'free markets'. One reason free markets flourished in North America is the pretty high degree of fairness and honor in the daily business practices.
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China is a maximum of 30 years away from catching up, India will take a bit longer. I've lived in China and the building work and infrastructure growth there is incredible. A power station gets built there every 2 weeks. Just imagine what they can do in 20 years. The EU has already overtaken the US in GDP terms, although that's because more countries keep on joining and the Euro is strong.

Brazil has always been the next big thing but the corruption and inefficiencies make the possibility as high as Italy being a super power.

Russia - I think you've summed it up.

Corruption is also rooted in Western countries. It ranges from nepotism on the smallest level to the very highest where companies are offered contracts without any competition. Don't kid yourself, the World is not a fair place. Just be glad we're not as corrupt as many other countries. You'll be able to spot which ones - the weakest and least efficient.
 
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