if they really stopped buying USTs what are they going to do with excess USD from trade surplus?
Sell it? Then it should not be bad bad for US equities - but what about Japan and all carry financing?!
Or buy other assets? Which assets? Likely commodities or equities again - prepare for the ride.
has anyone considered that since we have threatened them time and time again to let their currency reflect true market forces, that they are actually positioning themselves to iniate this?
Why buy US treasuries when your gonna smack the $$ against your own currency.
that's pretty weak argument (if it is argument at all). why is the curve normalizing then? if you traded rates for the past few years you would never say "it is just normalization of the curve".
I am surprised how little interest this thread created given that in the next few months it is really all about this topic....