It seems this discussion is predicated, for the most part, on the individuals at the top of both squabbling parties playing with a full undamaged deck. Unfortunately, we know the U.S. President is not. He's a sociopathic narcissist. But what of China's leader, Xi Jinping? https://www.newyorker.com/news/dail...-president-for-life-what-will-happen-to-china
China retaliation predictions?
- Thread starter Cuddles
- Start date
speak for yourself
The Chinese are wily, cunning opponents. That's how they managed to gain WTO admission in the first place despite being a nominally Communist dictatorship with nothing remotely close to free or open markets, and it's how they milked the West for close on two decades without serious resistance.
Trump may be leading the charge but the Western elite consensus is mostly behind him on this. Picking a fight with the EU at the same time was utterly moronic and was the big strategic misplay, but now it seems that he's walking that back.
The smart Chinese play (and the one they'll likely choose) will be to make a lot of public noise for domestic consumption, and then give in to most U.S. demands. Agreements and promises made can always be fudged or silently set aside later, once the heat dies down and/or a more affable president is in office. There are many other, far superior battlegrounds where they can continue the game - e.g. by embedding Huawei gear into the West's telecoms networks.
China may adeptly exploit weaknesses in the eventual agreement, i.e., enforcement. Much of the success of international accords relies on mutual respect and ethical behavior. That may be an element missing here. In the case of U.S.-China trade relations, I will adapt a, by now, infamous Presidential conclusion, and conclude for myself that "there are [not] good people on [either] side."
Failing the market?
I am no fan of his, but SPY was ~$215 when he was elected. @ ~$285 today. If that is failing the market, I don't know what success is.
Objectivity is a virtue these days, people are so passionately bifurcated they lose sight of any goal. I do myself sometimes.
Did anyone say rare earth metals? Anyone? Gonna be a rough day for tech today
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-earths-ruling-party-newspaper-idUSKCN1SZ07V
China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths: newspapers
Chinese trade experts say if Beijing moves forward with new restrictions on rare earth exports to the United States, it will likely follow Washington’s example and use national security as a justification.
China has repeatedly criticized Washington for what it says are abuses of national security exceptions at the WTO, including this week when, according to media reports, it accused the United States of breaking rules by blacklisting Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, the world’s largest telecom network gear maker.
But China for years has used national security considerations to block major U.S. technology companies, including Google and Facebook, from operating in its market
How reliant on China is the US?
Around 80% of the rare earths imported by the United States comes from China, according to US government data.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-earths-ruling-party-newspaper-idUSKCN1SZ07V
China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths: newspapers
Chinese trade experts say if Beijing moves forward with new restrictions on rare earth exports to the United States, it will likely follow Washington’s example and use national security as a justification.
China has repeatedly criticized Washington for what it says are abuses of national security exceptions at the WTO, including this week when, according to media reports, it accused the United States of breaking rules by blacklisting Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, the world’s largest telecom network gear maker.
But China for years has used national security considerations to block major U.S. technology companies, including Google and Facebook, from operating in its market
How reliant on China is the US?
Around 80% of the rare earths imported by the United States comes from China, according to US government data.
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