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China Reality Check
- Thread starter libertad
- Start date
This current world is just an example of Nash Equilibrium. Total distrust, propoganda and paranoia of one nation to another.
The author forgot there is a fundamental difference between China and Soveit Union, one is market economy and the other planned economy.
The author also suspected a lot of economy of China is based on stock bubble. I agree there is a bubble here, but the stock market was going down from 2000-2006, how does that contributed to the economy? nothing at all.
The author also suspected a lot of economy of China is based on stock bubble. I agree there is a bubble here, but the stock market was going down from 2000-2006, how does that contributed to the economy? nothing at all.
Good article. Does anyone know if Jimmy Rogers has commented on the World Bank's assessment that China's GDP is considerably smaller than reported? I'm curious what Mr. China has to say.
Its real.
I completely disagree with the author's notations.
China's stockmarket, although booming, is but a very tiny portion of the whole Chinese economy.
Regarding commodity boom. A fundamental different between current commodity boom and previous one is, this time, for the first time in human history, we are really talking about starting to run out some of the most precious natural resources on earth.
Have you not heard about peak oil? Not just peak oil, we have peak natural gas, peak copper, peak nickel. Peak a lot of things.
My favorite commodity plays are palladium. Buy the only two PGM metal produced in North America, PAL, and SWC. Especially now is a good time to load PAL at rock bottom price.
If you are interested in physical commodity, buy some tellurium.
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/55173-palladium-an-investable-metal-that-defies-physics
China's stockmarket, although booming, is but a very tiny portion of the whole Chinese economy.
Regarding commodity boom. A fundamental different between current commodity boom and previous one is, this time, for the first time in human history, we are really talking about starting to run out some of the most precious natural resources on earth.
Have you not heard about peak oil? Not just peak oil, we have peak natural gas, peak copper, peak nickel. Peak a lot of things.
My favorite commodity plays are palladium. Buy the only two PGM metal produced in North America, PAL, and SWC. Especially now is a good time to load PAL at rock bottom price.
If you are interested in physical commodity, buy some tellurium.
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/55173-palladium-an-investable-metal-that-defies-physics
My own feelings...
i) there is a bubble in China stock market but it is that bad.
==> A lot companies hv 30-50% growth in earnings and they may enjoy near monopoly so a high PE is reasonable. Stock market size is ~120% relative to GDP which is comparable to other countries.
ii) China does US more harm than good. Most Chinese workers work like robots in the factories. Just like robots can boost productivity, the Chinese are also doing so to the world economy. They may take jobs away but so are the computers, robots or even the women joining the workforce. A few decades ago ppl blamed the women or IBM for taking their jobs away. Nowadays ppl blame China for that.
iii) GDP is not reliable. You can hv high crime rate and then hv a huge police force to fight it... all the money spent are counted in GDP so you can see it is not reliable at all. Now China's GDP is big but the "quality" is very low as they may make just $1-2 out of every Nike they make.
iv) China has never produced any Nobel prize winner so far. It has the biggest army of engineers in the world but they are not designing Intel CPUs but doing the assembly jobs in factories
The biggest threat from China is not that they are too powerful but what will happen if their economy ceases to grow to feed its huge population.
Comparing China with previous USSR is not correct. USSR had the technology and natural resources but China only hv the population. If I am a US citizen (I am a Chinese living in Hongkong), I would be much more concerned about Russia instead of China as they are much more technologically capable and hv crude oil.
i) there is a bubble in China stock market but it is that bad.
==> A lot companies hv 30-50% growth in earnings and they may enjoy near monopoly so a high PE is reasonable. Stock market size is ~120% relative to GDP which is comparable to other countries.
ii) China does US more harm than good. Most Chinese workers work like robots in the factories. Just like robots can boost productivity, the Chinese are also doing so to the world economy. They may take jobs away but so are the computers, robots or even the women joining the workforce. A few decades ago ppl blamed the women or IBM for taking their jobs away. Nowadays ppl blame China for that.
iii) GDP is not reliable. You can hv high crime rate and then hv a huge police force to fight it... all the money spent are counted in GDP so you can see it is not reliable at all. Now China's GDP is big but the "quality" is very low as they may make just $1-2 out of every Nike they make.
iv) China has never produced any Nobel prize winner so far. It has the biggest army of engineers in the world but they are not designing Intel CPUs but doing the assembly jobs in factories
The biggest threat from China is not that they are too powerful but what will happen if their economy ceases to grow to feed its huge population.
Comparing China with previous USSR is not correct. USSR had the technology and natural resources but China only hv the population. If I am a US citizen (I am a Chinese living in Hongkong), I would be much more concerned about Russia instead of China as they are much more technologically capable and hv crude oil.
The Chinese invented pretty much everything. The Romans scammed everything and stamped it their own. I guess "prizes" weren't around thousands of years ago to celebrate these things.
The majority of US patents of the past 20 years were developed by Asian scientists working for US corporations. Go to Google. Go to Microsoft. Go to Cisco. Open the doors. What do you see..... CHINESE PEOPLE!
The majority of US patents of the past 20 years were developed by Asian scientists working for US corporations. Go to Google. Go to Microsoft. Go to Cisco. Open the doors. What do you see..... CHINESE PEOPLE!
Quote from richardyu301:
iv) China has never produced any Nobel prize winner so far. It has the biggest army of engineers in the world but they are not designing Intel CPUs but doing the assembly jobs in factories
The biggest threat from China is not that they are too powerful but what will happen if their economy ceases to grow to feed its huge population.