China Q3-19: Slowest Growth in 27 Years

[bone]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...set-sink-further-us-trade-war-and-pork-crisis

"A miserable three months for China’s economy was capped by the lowest growth on record on Friday, and the expectation that with darkening storm clouds on the horizon, things are likely to get even worse.

In the third quarter of 2019, China’s economy grew by 6.0 per cent, the slowest rate since quarterly records began 27 years ago and worse than expected. It means growth is now on the floor of Beijing’s target range of between 6.0 to 6.5 per cent for 2019. Most analysts expect it to stay within the target range for the year as a whole, but many think it will dip below 6.0 per cent in the final quarter.

“Actually we still believe the actual growth slowdown might be worse than the headline official numbers,” said Nomura analysts, emphasizing the pessimism that is now widespread with regard the world’s second largest economy.

While the material difference in a percentage point or two of economic growth is scant, for Beijing the symbolism is huge. A strong economy is often offered as the justification for the Communist Party’s non-democratic governance of the Chinese people."

 

[Cuddles]

The market not liking these news at all. Sending China into a recession for political brownie points is knee capping one of the biggest customers in the world.

 

[Bugenhagen]

I would consider how the exponential function puts a damper on China's aims.

Old but good.

 

[bone]

The market not liking these news at all. Sending China into a recession for political brownie points is knee capping one of the biggest customers in the world.

I get what you're saying and I agree that the economies are extensively intertwined.

Tariffs aside; both US political parties and the Nation as a whole generally agrees at present time that China needed to be confronted on it's trade practices. There's also a general consensus now that historical trade deals made over the past thirty years hurt the middle class American worker. I haven't seen any evidence to date that a Warren or Sanders administration would necessarily give China a free pass to resume business as usual.

I think it's perfectly legitimate to argue against Tariffs and for a broad WTO complaint like the monster case the EU filed against China in 2018 - but semantics aside for a moment I don't hear Democratic primary candidates advocating for the resumption of unfettered nationalistic Chinese trade practices.

In fact, a case could be made that Sanders or Warren would be even tougher on China than Trump. During the third Democratic debate - all of the candidates with the exception of Cory Booker said that they viewed tariffs as leverage and would not remove them day one in office. Even Andrew Yang said that he would keep tariffs in place pending a review of the situation.

For a synopsis of the national mood towards China - look at the universal and bipartisan condemnation the NBA currently enjoys in the United States.

The US confronting China on trade is akin to a band-aid - once it got ripped off, nobody wants to put it back on.

 

[MKTrader]

The market not liking these news at all. Sending China into a recession for political brownie points is knee capping one of the biggest customers in the world.

Yeah, the S&P 500 is only up 20% this year and is about 1-2% below it's all-time high. It's scared to death of bad China news!!!

 

[Bugenhagen]

Yeah, the S&P 500 is only up 20% this year and is about 1-2% below it's all-time high. It's scared to death of bad China news!!!

Near exactly what my cousin said buying a two million dollar house in early 2007. He kept the house but seeing him recently it may have also cost him a decade of his life.

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

Absolutely miserable and shameful, how dare they grew only 6%. Of course we don't think that while certain sectors "only" grew 6% on average, ai and high tech on the edge grew probably 200-300% each single quarter alone. But knowing that our adversary grew a measly 6% makes us sleep more peaceful of course.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...set-sink-further-us-trade-war-and-pork-crisis

"A miserable three months for China’s economy was capped by the lowest growth on record on Friday, and the expectation that with darkening storm clouds on the horizon, things are likely to get even worse.

In the third quarter of 2019, China’s economy grew by 6.0 per cent, the slowest rate since quarterly records began 27 years ago and worse than expected. It means growth is now on the floor of Beijing’s target range of between 6.0 to 6.5 per cent for 2019. Most analysts expect it to stay within the target range for the year as a whole, but many think it will dip below 6.0 per cent in the final quarter.

“Actually we still believe the actual growth slowdown might be worse than the headline official numbers,” said Nomura analysts, emphasizing the pessimism that is now widespread with regard the world’s second largest economy.

While the material difference in a percentage point or two of economic growth is scant, for Beijing the symbolism is huge. A strong economy is often offered as the justification for the Communist Party’s non-democratic governance of the Chinese people."

 

[Cuddles]

Absolutely miserable and shameful, how dare they grew only 6%. Of course we don't think that while certain sectors "only" grew 6% on average, ai and high tech on the edge grew probably 200-300% each single quarter alone. But knowing that our adversary grew a measly 6% makes us sleep more peaceful of course.

What are some AI players any way. Already invested in most chip socks but they're spread through many sectors

 

[bone]

There’s more than a little skepticism about the reliability of Chinese economic data. The Chinese Communist Party has ownership stakes in many major Companies, and the CCP is hypersensitive about its narrative and perception to the World.

https://rhg.com/research/chinas-gdp-the-costs-of-omerta/

“One can ask serious people about this problem of China’s “smoothed” economic data. Arguments about the quality of China’s GDP data are as old as the late 1990s at least, when Thomas Rawski realistically pointed out that there was a much sharper drop in China’s electricity output than GDP during the years following the Asian financial crisis. And there used to be a legitimate argument about the extent of the smoothing, with some analysts claiming that China reduced reported GDP growth rates when conditions are good, and also boosted them slightly when conditions were bad. Others claimed that distorted local government data submissions had influenced nationally reported data to overstate overall growth rates, notably Chen, Chen, Hsieh and Song in a paper earlier this year.”