The Skyscraper Indicator
By Victor Niederhoffer
Saturday, July 15, 2006
Far too often, a company, country, or civilization builds a tall, lavish building and experiences disaster shortly thereafter. Start in Babylon, circa 2800 B.C., when the conqueror Nimrod attempted to build âa tower that reaches to the heavens, so that we may make a name for ourselves.â The Lord, we are told in the âBook of Genesis,â threw the builders into confusion, halting construction permanently.
Right up to modern days, the landscape is littered with disastrous examples of the tendency to build high before a fall. The soaring towers of Southeast Asia, completed before the 1997 crash, come to mind. The worldâs current tallest buildings, the Petronas Towers, were completed in Kuala Lumpur in 1997, the year the Malaysian stock market fell 50 percent. The December 28, 1999, christening of the worldâs largest video display, the Nasdaqâs $37 million MarketSite Tower in Manhattanâs Times Square, came just three months before a 70 percent, 18-month crash in the Nasdaq Composite Index. Enron had almost completed a lavish 40-story tower designed by celebrity architect Cesar Pelli when it filed for bankruptcy in 2002.
John Newbegin, who runs a Web site called nycskyscrapers.com, wrote us: âI was totally fooled as to Enronâs true financial condition] by the beautiful building... They appeared to be by far the most prosperous of all the energy companies I saw, judging from the appearance of the edifice. I was convinced that they were huge and had all kinds of innovative assets and infrastructure all over the U.S.â
On October 10, 2002, Enronâs brand-new skyscraper, complete with an eight-story-high trading floor, was sold for one-third of its $300 million cost to help pay off some $50 billion owed to creditors.
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