China may have a Lost Decade

[TazTheLaz]

If anyone is old enough to remember, people thought that Japan would be the largest economy in the world. They were wrong. It seems China also has similar problems, plaguing it (not to mention an anti-free market sentiment there; like adding salt to a wound).

Here are some similarities between the prelude to the Lost Decade and the current state of things in China:

• Low population growth
• Slowing economic growth
• Waning competitive edge (In this case, regulation, and government intervention make China less appealing to western corporations)
• Overpriced markets (Although PE ratios are lower in China than in America, I have a theory that this is just because the multiples aren't adjusted for government intervention/regulation, and other risks of that nature).
• Interestingly, a pyramid sch-- I mean real estate company Evergrande has been in a state of perpetual zombie-ness, ever since its fraud has been exposed to the public. In 1980's Japan, several banks ran the same way, where bigger companies covered their debts, instead of investing the cash back into the economy, simply because the zombie firms were 'too big to fail'.

Please leave feedback on my thesis below.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

If anyone is old enough to remember, people thought that Japan would be the largest economy in the world. They were wrong. It seems China also has similar problems, plaguing it (not to mention an anti-free market sentiment there; like adding salt to a wound).

Here are some similarities between the prelude to the Lost Decade and the current state of things in China:

• Low population growth
• Slowing economic growth
• Waning competitive edge (In this case, regulation, and government intervention make China less appealing to western corporations)
• Overpriced markets (Although PE ratios are lower in China than in America, I have a theory that this is just because the multiples aren't adjusted for government intervention/regulation, and other risks of that nature).
• Interestingly, a pyramid sch-- I mean real estate company Evergrande has been in a state of perpetual zombie-ness, ever since its fraud has been exposed to the public. In 1980's Japan, several banks ran the same way, where bigger companies covered their debts, instead of investing the cash back into the economy, simply because the zombie firms were 'too big to fail'.

Please leave feedback on my thesis below.

Almost literally the same thing applies to the USA except population growth can be faked via legal/illegal immigration.

 

[TazTheLaz]

Almost literally the same thing applies to the USA except population growth can be faked via legal/illegal immigration.

Although this may be true, to a lesser degree, I still think America has the upper hand because:

• They control the reserve currency
• America still innovates the majority of products, medicines, and computers (and China severely lacks innovation)
• Most startups are still in America (Even Alibaba and Baidu, etc. will never match up to Amazon and Google.)
• America has the best global network with other countries (NATO, USMCA, etc.)

There are some concerning trends I see in America, though:

• More regulation and monetary manipulation. This only gives the government more power, and inflates the currency.
• Bailouts are too common, companies are not incentivized to avert risks.
• Voters will trust any demagogue shill (i.e., Biden), if they promise free stuff, and/or an all-encompassing solution to their short term problems.
• There doesn't seem to be another pro-market trend, or at least none on the same scale as the one led by Saint Reagan.

 

[M.W.]

Low population growth: at least Japan and China don't immigrate half the world to create a melting pot that never has shown to really work (keyword : silos). Their societies are cohesive and people at least have a similar mindset and background. Only those who show extraordinary achievement or an interest to assimilate are allowed in. That entrepreneurial spirit is not suffering is shown by China and its number of patent registrations and quickly catching up in almost every area of technology

I don't see a slow down in economic growth. Neither am I seeing the crazy inflation numbers in Japan that the west is suffering from.

Waning competitive edge: if anything then it's exactly the opposite. China is quickly catching up on every technology front. Name me an area where they are falling behind over time.

Are you suggesting pyramid schemes and an utterly overpriced American equity market ad property markets are an illusion?

I don't see any of your claims hold true in the slightest. Waiting for some clarification...

If anyone is old enough to remember, people thought that Japan would be the largest economy in the world. They were wrong. It seems China also has similar problems, plaguing it (not to mention an anti-free market sentiment there; like adding salt to a wound).

Here are some similarities between the prelude to the Lost Decade and the current state of things in China:

• Low population growth
• Slowing economic growth
• Waning competitive edge (In this case, regulation, and government intervention make China less appealing to western corporations)
• Overpriced markets (Although PE ratios are lower in China than in America, I have a theory that this is just because the multiples aren't adjusted for government intervention/regulation, and other risks of that nature).
• Interestingly, a pyramid sch-- I mean real estate company Evergrande has been in a state of perpetual zombie-ness, ever since its fraud has been exposed to the public. In 1980's Japan, several banks ran the same way, where bigger companies covered their debts, instead of investing the cash back into the economy, simply because the zombie firms were 'too big to fail'.

Please leave feedback on my thesis below.

 

[NoahA]

If anyone is old enough to remember, people thought that Japan would be the largest economy in the world. They were wrong. It seems China also has similar problems, plaguing it (not to mention an anti-free market sentiment there; like adding salt to a wound).

Here are some similarities between the prelude to the Lost Decade and the current state of things in China:

• Low population growth
• Slowing economic growth
• Waning competitive edge (In this case, regulation, and government intervention make China less appealing to western corporations)
• Overpriced markets (Although PE ratios are lower in China than in America, I have a theory that this is just because the multiples aren't adjusted for government intervention/regulation, and other risks of that nature).
• Interestingly, a pyramid sch-- I mean real estate company Evergrande has been in a state of perpetual zombie-ness, ever since its fraud has been exposed to the public. In 1980's Japan, several banks ran the same way, where bigger companies covered their debts, instead of investing the cash back into the economy, simply because the zombie firms were 'too big to fail'.

Please leave feedback on my thesis below.

I think ultimately, the world is moving more towards freedom. With the internet, we can all see how the rest of the world lives. Nobody wants to be under authoritarian rule as it never ends well. China had a great 30 years, but look at how all the rich were buying up properties in other places and making escape plans. Heck, I guess even in the US the rich are making escape plans for places like New Zealand.

But I still think that going forward, the country with the greatest amount of freedom will be the one that triumphs. These lockdowns and treatment of the citizens are counterproductive to growth and prosperity. When you see your government hates you and wants to destroy you, its kind of hard to have good feelings about the future. The Chinese tend to be good about following orders from their leaders for the greater good, but I think every year, more people unplug from this mindset.

The next few years of transition might of course be ugly, for many countries, but in the end, I expect that what will win out will be the idea of freedom for the individual. The fight is on right now of course.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I think ultimately, the world is moving more towards freedom. With the internet, we can all see how the rest of the world lives. Nobody wants to be under authoritarian rule as it never ends well. China had a great 30 years, but look at how all the rich were buying up properties in other places and making escape plans. Heck, I guess even in the US the rich are making escape plans for places like New Zealand.

But I still think that going forward, the country with the greatest amount of freedom will be the one that triumphs. These lockdowns and treatment of the citizens are counterproductive to growth and prosperity. When you see your government hates you and wants to destroy you, its kind of hard to have good feelings about the future. The Chinese tend to be good about following orders from their leaders for the greater good, but I think every year, more people unplug from this mindset.

The next few years of transition might of course be ugly, for many countries, but in the end, I expect that what will win out will be the idea of freedom for the individual. The fight is on right now of course.

So Canada, eh?

Low population growth: at least Japan and China don't immigrate half the world to create a melting pot that never has shown to really work

Depends what you mean by work. The type of immigration practiced by the West is an absolute boon to the owners of capital but is generally negative to the native population. It still boggles the mind how the decision was made to raise population via immigration vs making it easy to have and maintain a family.

 

[stochastix]

Although this may be true, to a lesser degree, I still think America has the upper hand because:

• They control the reserve currency
• America still innovates the majority of products, medicines, and computers (and China severely lacks innovation)
• Most startups are still in America (Even Alibaba and Baidu, etc. will never match up to Amazon and Google.)
• America has the best global network with other countries (NATO, USMCA, etc.)

There are some concerning trends I see in America, though:

• More regulation and monetary manipulation. This only gives the government more power, and inflates the currency.
• Bailouts are too common, companies are not incentivized to avert risks.
• Voters will trust any demagogue shill (i.e., Biden), if they promise free stuff, and/or an all-encompassing solution to their short term problems.
• There doesn't seem to be another pro-market trend, or at least none on the same scale as the one led by Saint Reagan.

Biden was embraced because trump was such a reviled terrible piece of trash. I think you are referring to Bernie fans with the free stuff gimmick

 

[NoahA]

So Canada, eh?

Well, at least the truckers weren't shot to death of locked up in a far away camp. I think in China, dissent is pushed more harshly. I'm not saying its heading in the right direction, but if I had to pick where to be stuck, US/Canada vs. China, I would of course not pick China.

 

[M.W.]

Japan is a democratic country of sorts yet its a society of grand group think and whatever the government suggests is followed by the sheeple. In a way its just as you described and yet Japan is doing remarkably well. Unless I was an entrepreneur or into the outdoors I would trade the US for Japan any given day. Life is so much better for the average guy in Japan than in the US. You pay similarly high taxes but everything else is taken care of in Japan.

I think ultimately, the world is moving more towards freedom. With the internet, we can all see how the rest of the world lives. Nobody wants to be under authoritarian rule as it never ends well. China had a great 30 years, but look at how all the rich were buying up properties in other places and making escape plans. Heck, I guess even in the US the rich are making escape plans for places like New Zealand.

But I still think that going forward, the country with the greatest amount of freedom will be the one that triumphs. These lockdowns and treatment of the citizens are counterproductive to growth and prosperity. When you see your government hates you and wants to destroy you, its kind of hard to have good feelings about the future. The Chinese tend to be good about following orders from their leaders for the greater good, but I think every year, more people unplug from this mindset.

The next few years of transition might of course be ugly, for many countries, but in the end, I expect that what will win out will be the idea of freedom for the individual. The fight is on right now of course.

 

[M.W.]

Yes, immigration benefits those with capital but it greatly harms not just the native population but the currently existing settled population. Obviously in Canada or the US anyone other than natives are immigrants or descendants of immigrants so there is no clear line that can be drawn but its not difficult to argue that neither country can immigrate the rest of the world. As a matter of fact the more you bring in productive workers and smart wizkids the more the average guy in the country gets harmed. Again, great for the owners of capital but bad for the overall population. Not sure how much higher property prices in Canada can go without strangulating an entire young generation for life.

So Canada, eh?



Depends what you mean by work. The type of immigration practiced by the West is an absolute boon to the owners of capital but is generally negative to the native population. It still boggles the mind how the decision was made to raise population via immigration vs making it easy to have and maintain a family.