why do sensationalist like to use the word crash on everything, only a few instances the market ever crashed. And china will not crash.
The real estate prices will not raise and very likely to drop, that is true. The chinese economy/GDP is also heavily dependent on residential construction, also true.
But keep in mind:
1) The government is FORCEFULLY and artificially trying to lower the real estate price, it is not a natural market event such as a bubble bursting.
2) The overall economy in china is picking up as the global meltdown eases, jobs/manufacturing are growing at a healthy rate. The country as a whole is still rapidly moving UP.
3) Government has tremendous resources (and not just cash reserve) at their disposal in case the economy does "crash". It is controlled by a very experienced economic team that can react and execute policy very quickly, as proven time and time again in the last few years by their policy/reactions to the meltdown.
I think the real estate market in china will be down, but china will not crash but continue to grow. I did sell construction related commodities such as base metal or companies tied to the chinese builder/constructions. But to short china as a whole is nonsense.