I wish the Chinese are stupid but they are damn smart. There are multiple considerations beyond the headlines, and their central bank started the depreciation cycle, primarily based on trade data. 7.5 is within the expectation.
China’s CPI is under 3% and its capital account is walled off, any fluctuations of the currency by and large won’t affect the street people.
While US is the largest importer, cheaper Yuan is going to widen the trade deficit further. I don’t think China worries about stronger dollar. Euro and Asian currencies are dropping like stones, offshore yuan needs to be inline of the depreciation of its second and the third largest trade blocks, hence came down 5% against the greenback can help firm up its exports, otherwise orderbooks will go to places like Vietnam.
Lastly, BIS puts China’s offshore Yuan at around 500 billion CNY in 2016. China can easily sell 70 billion USD to buy every single penny of its offshore Yuan and drives up the exchange rate, out of 3.7 trillion of its foreign assets.
But if I am a FX guy, I’d short GBP and Euro, Yen and Korean Won, much easier to manage.