China Inflation?

[ironchef]

Consequences of banning US agriculture import (soy, corn, pork, beef...) due to trade war?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...pply-worries-increase-local-authorities-offer

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...ts-denmark-and-brazil-save-chinas-bacon-after

 

[ironchef]

Correction: China still imports US pork in spite of the trade war.

However, the import duty is 62%:

This was made possible by a sharp increase in prices in China and depressed US prices because of excess supply, which helped to offset a 62 per cent import duty slapped by Beijing on US pork exports.

 

[Overnight]

Correction: China still imports US pork in spite of the trade war.

However, the import duty is 62%:

A tiny blurb on that from today's cow report...

"Trade news always drives the markets crazy. The number of times big time announcements have moved the markets only to lapse into disappointment a few days later. China needs red meat. Even their own data is sufficient evidence of a major calamity to the pig inventory. There probably is not enough pork available in the world to replace the lost production. This means beef is a likely fill in product and nothing could be more fortuitous than introducing beef to the China middle class..."

 

[charliewins]

it is not caused by inflation, it is caused by stupid officers. Most of China's pork is produced by solo farmers. Last year the gov announced a new country plan to forbidden farmers raise pigs. This is the main reason that shrinks the supply of pork. Now every governor of each state is responsible for pork production. We will see a sharp decline of pork price next year

 

[charliewins]

The import of foreign pork is only 1.5% of the Chinese pork market. No one can raise 1.4 billion people except the Chinese themselves

 

[profocsh]

The import of foreign pork is only 1.5% of the Chinese pork market. No one can raise 1.4 billion people except the Chinese themselves

Not really. Main reason is swine fever spred widely, causing serious supply issue.

 

[smallfil]

A lot of the Chinese pork was tainted by swine flu and had to be destroyed. There is no way they can cover all the demand for pork without importing it.

 

[profocsh]

People move their eyes to beef, chicken, sea foods etc from pork when they see pork price has been almost doubled. Australia is benefitting from this trend by exporting more beef to China.

 

[ironchef]

Not really. Main reason is swine fever spred widely, causing serious supply issue.

A 62% import tax is quite vindictive. After all the import duties Trump imposed on Chinese goods were mostly around 10% (later raised to 15%).

 

[Overnight]

Interestingly enough, live cows bumped the limit-up today.