China in a bear market and no one is talking about it

[midlifeguy]

I expect a huge rally going into Olympics.

Quote from killATwill:

If you define a bear market as an index losing 20%, then China's Shanghai index has stealthfully begun a bear market. Granted an ATR-based definition of a bear market would be more appropriate for China because its market is that much more volatile than the US's. Nevertheless, it appears that the index is stuck in its biggest drawdown in a long time and is doing so without attracting much attention. Funny how nobody seems to be talking about this in the United States, or internationally for that matter.

 

[killATwill]

Maverick: Um, like, nearly every Chinese company. Honestly, I can't really give you specifics because I don't follow individual companies. What I can tell you is that for the overall market, earnings for Chinese companies increased 70-something percent last year, while income-related earnings were 40-something percent (got the numbers from a recent article by a banker in an english-language Hong Kong newspaper).

If those figures are correct, it stands to reason that a flat market and flat earnings would thus clip"earnings" growth nearly in half. A market that loses 20% would really injure "earnings". The quotation marks are used for a reason.

Quote from Maverick1:

KillatWill,

Interesting comments, especially your last paragraph. Do you happen to know some of the companies that are using their stock holdings as a source of earnings appreciation? or maybe their land holdings?

thanks
maverick1

 

[drsteph]

I wouldn't think about it too hard. The entire chinese economy is essentially export dependent, so just look to the US to determine if the exports are to continue.

US economy stable, chinese market goes up.

Us economy hits the skids, chinese market does too. Big-time.

 

[weld1]

do u think they are totally dependent , or to the degree that it would make a huge drop in their growth. i'm sure they have other customers,but i don't really know that much about china.

 

[Capablanca]

Read EU is China's biggest export market. US second. Wasn't it just back in 1989 that the West imposed economic sanctions to little effect because the Chinese economy was basically self-sufficient? Dramatic changes since then but hard to imagine it just turned into an export led and dependent economy overnight.

 

[gnome]

Quote from killATwill:

If you define a bear market as an index losing 20%...

That's just about the poorest definition. Claiming "bear" at this point is getting waayyy ahead of oneself.

 

[yip1997]

Quote from killATwill:

Maverick: Um, like, nearly every Chinese company. Honestly, I can't really give you specifics because I don't follow individual companies. What I can tell you is that for the overall market, earnings for Chinese companies increased 70-something percent last year, while income-related earnings were 40-something percent (got the numbers from a recent article by a banker in an english-language Hong Kong newspaper).

If those figures are correct, it stands to reason that a flat market and flat earnings would thus clip"earnings" growth nearly in half. A market that loses 20% would really injure "earnings". The quotation marks are used for a reason.

That is the correct figure. Roughly 30% of the earnings came from investment gain last year (i.e. from stock holdings and real estate). I expect more weighting will come from investment earnings.

In this environment there is no incentive for companies to earn from normal operation. Instead it is better to leverage (i.e. borrow more money from banks to invest in stocks and real estate).

 

[Jayford]

Quote from Capablanca:

Read EU is China's biggest export market. US second. Wasn't it just back in 1989 that the West imposed economic sanctions to little effect because the Chinese economy was basically self-sufficient? Dramatic changes since then but hard to imagine it just turned into an export led and dependent economy overnight.

They are export dependent. They have rapidly growing domestic consumption, but most of these new wealthy get their income from the export economy in one form or another.

Yes, the EU is China's #1 customer, but a slowdown in the US would make enough of a dent to damage China pretty good. It would also slow down the EU somewhat, and crunch many third World countries that buy from China. Its all interconnected with the USA still the spoke of the wheel due to its sheer economic size, and consumption habits.

The US goes south, so does China.