Quote from new$:
"The message from Beijing is that we don't like this environment,"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...0/China-orders-retreat-from-risky-assets.html
:eek:
what a nonsense - i would not be surprised that they do exactly the opposite especially if they have such a star among themselves.
it is a crunch time. everybody is making big fun of US by now and even americans start to see it - at least as far as they continue to get fired and their tax liabilities "doubles" every year...
some snippets from top of my head:
* Yuan will not strengthen if only because chinese trade surplus is disappearing - not mentioning the employment/political impact in china.
* EUR can become competitive with tricks like Greece. why do you think EMU will not explicitly help them? They love the weakening EUR. on top of that they are used to tax slavery anyway so no big changes for them recently.
* commodity currencies will not strengthen as much as they should to bring balances in line largely because of worries of destroying manufacturing sector (e.g. Canada) or unwillingness to invest in infrastructure/consumption (e.g. Gulf states) china will likley push demand for commodities up worsening the trade balances.
* US continues to support consumption (on drug-like cheap rates) instead of doing exactly the opposite to get their house in order. this again worsen the trade balance, fiscal balance etc.
one day (soon) people will realize that this is not sustainable even in the short term. there must be a major redesign of the currency system.
to start with the reserve currency needs to have a reserve ccy attributes - fiscal (budget), monetary (no carry) and external (trade balance + current account balance). it seems that flexible exchange rates based on fiat (and mercantilism of some countries) do not work - they are inherently unstable (by its own construction in fact).
sorry for the ramble - buy real assets! (whatever it means)
