China Default Thread

[destriero]

Dude, you can post that shit all you want. You act as though it's not in the market. Hint: everybody knows. Until it falls it's just conversation.

What's your bear position on your blowup China thesis?

 

[Stockolio]

Bullshit. The currency is the first to go (1997). His RMB trade hasn't worked because they haven't collapsed. Ostensibly you trade, right?

View attachment 201702

What does China Large Cap ETF have to do with liquidity in banking system ? There CB bought more Equities in 2019 then BoJ

 

[Stockolio]

Dude, you can post that shit all you want. You act as though it's not in the market. Hint: everybody knows. Until it falls it's just conversation.

What's your bear position on your blowup China thesis?

Don't have one... My only play is HYG Puts

 

[destriero]

What does China Large Cap ETF have to do with liquidity in banking system ? There CB bought more Equities in 2019 then BoJ

What does the SPY have to do with the US banking system?

Unless you're long Chinese bank stocks in your 88888 account... it's all masturbation without the payoff.

What. do. you. stand. to. gain?

 

[destriero]

Don't have one... My only play is HYG Puts

lol and their correlation to the Chinese economy and/or Chinese equities? At least you could feign competence and be short a China ETF.

HYG trades to an ATH, intraday.

 

[Stockolio]

Another P2P Ponzi scam bites the dust... https://www.scmp.com/business/china...ded-shares-chinese-peer-peer-lending-platform

Two companies about to default.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-0...graded-for-continued-debt-risk-101410192.html

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-0...ife-support-with-new-financing-101410717.html

 

[pipeguy]

As you all know, China is collapsing and quite viciously... I have highlighted many defaults in my thesis china thread, now I will be updating almost daily the Defaults and Liquidity in china until a Small or Medium Bank Collapses and starts the Minsky Moment

They have over 2 Trillion Yuan of bad loans swept under the rug they do not count defaults on those, giving it to specific banks to try and contain shock, but whole country is defaulting, it is getting extremely serious.

China mentioned one more RRR then they are done, they threw the towel not long ago saying they couldn't keep up expanding credit this high, true given extreme bankruptcy of system... Also very short on US Dollars, that's why I think Chinese Bank will start defaulting much sooner then people anticipate, offshore dollar drought is very real, Powell better stop QT... Mini-QE Fed is restarting in Sep will help tho

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/corp...s-china-backs-off-broad-easing-20190430-00159

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...er-revising-2017-cash-holdings-by-4-4-billion

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-0...fire-sale-fails-to-ease-crisis-101410054.html

Other companies that have faced similar scrutiny from regulators include Kangde Xin Composite Material Group Co., which defaulted on a bond in January after reporting cash levels just four months earlier that were enough to pay the debt 15 times over. The CSRC began investigating Kangde Xin in October.

“We have seen a number of Chinese companies with high cash balances still seek funding from investors, and later on the cash just disappears,” said Raymond Chia, head of credit research for Asia excluding Japan at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. “We should really question borrowers.”

Investors will watch the CSRC for more details on what went wrong at Kangmei, according to Guo Feng, head of the wealth management department at Northeast Securities Co. Whatever the result, the company may struggle to win back investor confidence, said Shen Chen, a partner at Shanghai Maoliang Investment Management.

This scandal could narrow their refinancing channels as investors flee.

It's command economy and conventional wisdom stemming from capitalism is not quite applicable there. Take for example bank loans - commercial banks making record loans while increasing bad loan provisions. How would you interpret that data for Goldman Sachs for example? Of course sell shares because it seems to be too reckless. But it's not the case for Chinese banks which are basically branches of PBOC which pursues government targets.

 

[dozu888]

The China system is unproven, for good or bad.... can't apply conventional capitalism rules.

yes the debt situation is horrifying, but at the mean time the government has unlimited power... it also has the worlds' most hard-working people... 1.5 billion of them.. who will not revolt even if the government robs away all their savings.. which has been going on with the real estate bubble - in major cities it takes past/future savings of 3 generations to buy a condo.

eventually someone has to pay, but most likely it's the average citizen.

 

[R1234]

lol and their correlation to the Chinese economy and/or Chinese equities? At least you could feign competence and be short a China ETF.

HYG trades to an ATH, intraday.

View attachment 201706

offtopic: stare at dest's chart on your phone. I swear it looks 3-D

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

The China system is unproven, for good or bad.... can't apply conventional capitalism rules.

yes the debt situation is horrifying, but at the mean time the government has unlimited power... it also has the worlds' most hard-working people... 1.5 billion of them.. who will not revolt even if the government robs away all their savings.. which has been going on with the real estate bubble - in major cities it takes past/future savings of 3 generations to buy a condo.

eventually someone has to pay, but most likely it's the average citizen.

On the contrary, the Chinese command economy has been proven over centuries. They had a blip there for a bit due to colonialism where they slipped, but it's back to command economy for the foreseeable future. The only difficulty they may have is if they default on debts to non-Chinese. This, they cannot control. I expect they are extremely careful here.