China Declares Cryptocurrency Transactions Illegal; Bitcoin Price Falls

Then who exactly is using the Tethers to buy Bitcoin? Let's say I was making tethers in my own home, and I was buying all this Bitcoin, I wouldn't even waste my time waiting for it to rise, I would just sell as much as I can at that moment causing the market to plummet. But the market isn't plummeting is it? Instead it's doing the opposite of what it should be doing if someone was printing tethers out of thin air.

So parts of your theory doesn't make any sense. Because how does printing fake money cause a different asset to rise? And do you think printing fake money is the only reason it is rising, or do people have a genuine interest in Bitcoin?



Well what do you think is being used to buy Tether? Counterfeit money? American dollars decreasing in value? You even buy Ethereum after you have made this arguement contradicting yourself in many different ways.

And lets say Tether falls apart and there is no more Tether, what about USDT? What about BUSD? USDC? And even USD that's used to buy Bitcoin, since everyone around here knows that USD IS BEING PRINTED OUT OF THIN AIR. But hey, lets not complain about that since our trust is in the government :rolleyes:

you do realise that USDT is Tether :D

you stuck in your confirmation bias. Once again, it is really easy to keep the price up and push it higher with fake money. Not sure why such concept is hard for you to understand. Remove Tether and 70% of daily
Volume is gone. Crypto world would plummet as prices are artificially supported by this ponzi stable coin.
 
you do realise that USDT is Tether :D

Wow, you definitely got me that time, good job buddy:thumbsup:

you stuck in your confirmation bias. Once again, it is really easy to keep the price up and push it higher with fake money. Not sure why such concept is hard for you to understand. Remove Tether and 70% of daily
Volume is gone. Crypto world would plummet as prices are artificially supported by this ponzi stable coin.

You're right I don't understand it. And that's because you haven't given a clear logical explanation about how teethers inflate the price, when Bitcoin is also being bought with USD. It's like you read something on the internet that stuck in your head that you all of the sudden need to believe but don't understand the concept. If the price of Bitcoin is moving up then that's because people are buying Bitcoin, not Tethers. I don't see how you think tethers control the price of Bitcoin, maybe someone told you what to believe, or maybe I'm wrong and don't understand it. I just think your idea is too far fetched since Bitcoin can be bought with any Fiat money as well...
 
Not a trade recommendation.... but if I were trading btc I'd swingtrade SHORT 39.8k cover stop 40.1 exit target COVER 31k.

Watch :D

Is there an inverse btc etf?

If China is out bitcoin and crypto are royally fcked near term. China looked at btc, grabbed its crotch and said niehau ma this, mfkr lol

Somebody make a meme
 
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You're right I don't understand it. And that's because you haven't given a clear logical explanation about how teethers inflate the price, when Bitcoin is also being bought with USD.
Here is a very good analogy. Say you have an ETF like SPY. When you buy SPY, you own a share of this ETF that has all the underlying shares in it. The fund, which is now at 400 billion, will have shares of all the 500 companies in there plus a few million of cash for redemptions and operating costs. But the bulk of this is in the shares of the companies. When someone buys SPY, the fund needs to ensure that they add more shares of all the companies. Clearly one extra share makes no difference, but if over months the fund grows 10%, they need to add more shares and buy them on the open market.

Conversely, when people want to get rid of their SPY shares because they think the market will drop, the company will have to sell individual shares of the companies to maintain a balance and when they sell shares, the dollars they get for the sale goes to pay out the people who sold.

USDT works the same way. When someone wants to buy a USDT coin, the company has to ensure that for the coin they sell, they have 1 $US dollar in their account (just like SPY needs to own the shares of APPL, MSFT, etc). Then they can mint the USDT coin.

Now clearly someone can exchange USDT for BTC, and in this case, they need to make sure they have some BTC on hand for this transaction, but at the end of the day, most of their holdings need to be in USD because each USDT coin is supposed to be backed by dollars.

So the idea is that if there is 60 billion circulating in USDT, there should be 60 billion in US dollars on hand. Now they can use some of this money and invest it, which is clearly what they claim to do, but we all know investments can go south. If they bought 10 billion in shares of that Chinese developer Evergrande that is going bust, well, we have a big problem, and hence why they came out very quickly do say they don't own it.

Every day you have people exchanging USDT for BTC, and BTC for USDT, so there needs to be enough on hand of both to make this transaction happen. The thing is, what if all of a sudden, half of USDT holders want to get out of the stablecoin. The company will need to sell 30 billion of their investments in order to get the US cash in order to be able to do the exchange (since they only have 3% of cash on hand). Since we don't know where the money is invested, we don't really know if this redemption is possible.

Now comes the kicker. Did 60 billion dollars worth of cash get converted to USDT in order to initially mint the 60 billion stable coins? There should have been this much cash flowing in, in order to maintain the 1:1 peg. The money may not all be in cash now, but it should have started this way. Heck, maybe there is even more if their investments paid off. But if the company just releases 10 billion coins, with no money coming to them, then they clearly can't be minting those coins because there is nothing to back them up. We don't even know what types of investments they own. If its all shit bonds that are losing money, there is a big crisis if everyone wants to convert USDT into BTC or USD all at once.

Its almost no different than what Madoff did. He sent you a statement to say your portfolio has this much money in it because he bought X amount of shares on your behalf. But in fact, you don't own any shares since he doesn't have them. Its just a piece of paper with words on it. Likewise, the company behind USDT says that since there are 60 billions USDT coins, there is 60 billion US dollars (or equivalent) to back up those coins, but maybe there aren't. Just because they say they have it doesn't mean its true, and there is no way to check. We are just supposed to trust them.
 
Oh, and I forgot the crypto price inflation part.

Here is how I see it. Suppose you're at an auction. You bid 10 million for a painting, the guy besides you bids 11. Then you bid 12, and he bids 13. Eventually you get it for 20 million. But then you find out the guy never had any money and he should have never been bidding. You could have gotten it for 10 million, but because of his fake bids, it got to 20 million. Somehow he managed to trick the auction house into making them believe he has the money when he didn't.

Since USDT might just have been printed out of thin air, its easy to use it to buy BTC, and you can print as much as you want. They say they have a dollar for every USDT coin they bring into existence, but if they never received this dollar, then its a scam.

If with just a few million of USDT coins you can move the price of BTC by thousands of dollars in minutes, then billions worth can have moved BTC from 10k to 20k and so on. If you don't have a fake buyer with unlimited fake resources, then what is a BTC coin really worth? People maybe mostly buy BTC because they see it going up. But if it didn't go up because there were no transactions done through fake USDT coins, then maybe the price would have never risen.
 
Not a trade recommendation.... but if I were trading btc I'd swingtrade SHORT 39.8k cover stop 40.1 exit target COVER 31k.

Watch :D

Is there an inverse btc etf?

If China is out bitcoin and crypto are royally fcked near term. China looked at btc, grabbed its crotch and said niehau ma this, mfkr lol

Somebody make a meme

You have to wait until Btc hits $39.8K before shorting?

You can short GBTC

Or BTCC.TO (Canadian bitcoin etf)

dyor, of course

Do let us know if you put on a short btc trade. It's always nice to see bitcoin critics that actually put their money where their mouth is :D
 
I think China will not giving room for crypto grew up in its country, but there are so many founders crypto comes from Chinese, the government will issue digital yuan and may be worried crypto will create instability.
 
Here is a very good analogy. Say you have an ETF like SPY. When you buy SPY, you own a share of this ETF that has all the underlying shares in it. The fund, which is now at 400 billion, will have shares of all the 500 companies in there plus a few million of cash for redemptions and operating costs. But the bulk of this is in the shares of the companies. When someone buys SPY, the fund needs to ensure that they add more shares of all the companies. Clearly one extra share makes no difference, but if over months the fund grows 10%, they need to add more shares and buy them on the open market.

Conversely, when people want to get rid of their SPY shares because they think the market will drop, the company will have to sell individual shares of the companies to maintain a balance and when they sell shares, the dollars they get for the sale goes to pay out the people who sold.

Mutual funds might work that way, but ETFs are different.
https://www.etf.com/etf-education-c...s-the-creationredemption-mechanism?nopaging=1
What Is The Creation/Redemption Mechanism?

The key to understanding how ETFs work is the "creation/redemption" mechanism. It's how ETFs gain exposure to the market, and is the "secret sauce" that allows ETFs to be less expensive, more transparent and more tax efficient than traditional mutual funds.

It’s a bit complicated, but worth understanding:

For a larger view, please click on the image above.



The Role Of Authorized Participants

When an ETF company wants to create new shares of its fund, whether to launch a new product or meet increasing market demand, it turns to someone called an authorized participant (AP).An AP may be a market maker, a specialist or any other large financial institution. Essentially, it’s someone with a lot of buying power.

It is the AP’s job to acquire the securities that the ETF wants to hold. For instance, if an ETF is designed to track the S&P 500 Index, the AP will buy shares in all the S&P 500 constituents in the exact same weights as the index, then deliver those shares to the ETF provider. In exchange, the provider gives the AP a block of equally valued ETF shares, called a creation unit. These unit are usually formed in blocks of 50,000 shares.

The exchange takes place on a one-for-one, fair-value basis. The AP delivers a certain amount of underlying securities and receives the exact same value in ETF shares, priced based on their net asset value (NAV), not the market value at which the ETF happens to be trading.

Both parties benefit from the transaction: The ETF provider gets the stocks it needs to track the index, and the AP gets plenty of ETF shares to resell for profit.

The process can also work in reverse. APs can remove ETF shares from the market by purchasing enough of those shares to form a creation unit and then delivering those shares to the ETF issuer. In exchange, APs receive the same value in the underlying securities of the fund.

Why Is The Creation/Redemption Process Important?

The creation/redemption process is important for ETFs in a number of ways. For one, it’s what keeps ETF share prices trading in line with the fund’s underlying NAV.

Because an ETF trades like a stock, its price will fluctuate during the trading day, due to simple supply and demand. If many investors want to buy an ETF, for instance, the ETF’s share price might rise above the value of its underlying securities.

When this happens, the AP can jump in to intervene. Recognizing the “overpriced” ETF, the AP might buy up the underlying shares that compose the ETF and then sell ETF shares on the open market. This should help drive the ETF’s share price back toward fair value, while the AP earns a basically risk-free arbitrage profit.

Likewise, if the ETF starts trading at a discount to the securities it holds, the AP can snap up 50,000 shares of that ETF on the cheap and redeem them for the underlying securities, which can be resold. By buying up the undervalued ETF shares, the AP drives the price of the ETF back toward fair value while once again making a nice profit.

This arbitrage process helps to keep an ETF’s price in line with the value of its underlying portfolio. With multiple APs watching most ETFs, ETF prices typically stay in line with the value of their underlying securities.

This is one of the critical ways in which ETFs differ from closed-end funds. With closed-end funds, no one can create or redeem shares. That’s why you often see closed-end funds trading at massive premiums or discounts to their NAV: There’s no arbitrage mechanism available to keep supply and demand pressures in check.

The ETF arbitrage process doesn’t work perfectly, and it pays to make sure your ETF is trading at fair value. But most of the time, the process works well.

An Efficient Way To Access The Market

The other key benefit of the creation/redemption mechanism is that it’s an extraordinarily efficient and fair way for funds to acquire new securities.

As discussed, when investors pour new money into mutual funds, the fund company must take that money and go into the market to buy securities. Along the way, they pay trading spreads and commissions, which ultimately harms returns of the fund. The same thing happens when investors remove money from the fund.

With ETFs, APs do most of the buying and selling. When APs sense demand for additional shares of an ETF—which manifests itself when the ETF share price trades at a premium to its NAV—they go into the market and create new shares. When the APs sense demand from investors looking to redeem—which manifests itself when the ETF share price trades at a discount—they process redemptions.

The AP pays all the trading costs and fees, and even pays an additional fee to the ETF provider to cover the paperwork involved in processing all the creation/redemption activity.

The beauty of the system is that the fund is shielded from these costs. Funds may still pay trading fees if they have portfolio turnover due to index changes or rebalances, but the fee for putting new money to work (or redeeming money from the fund) is typically paid by the AP. (Ultimately, investors entering or exiting the ETF pay these costs through the bid/ask spread.)

The system is inherently more fair than the way mutual funds operate. In mutual funds, existing shareholders pay the price when new investors put money to work in a fund, because the fund bears the trading expense. In ETFs, those costs are borne by the AP (and later by the individual investor looking to enter or exit the fund).
 
Mutual funds might work that way, but ETFs are different.
https://www.etf.com/etf-education-c...s-the-creationredemption-mechanism?nopaging=1
Interesting link. On a macro level, its very similar, except for the AP middleman. But what I find interesting is this line with regards to costs of trading that are covered by the AP.... "The beauty of the system is that the fund is shielded from these costs."

If the AP is the middleman that acquires individual stocks, why on earth can't the ETF do this for a smaller price? Any time you have to pay the middleman it costs something. They state that the AP is happy because it receives ETF shares they can sell for a profit, but this profit would be better kept by the ETF in my opinion. The service provided is basically what the ETF should be doing.

If I call my broker to perform a trade, they will charge me $50 to deal with a person. If I do it online, I pay $4.95. So why use a middleman??? (maybe only if the platform is down and you want to do a trade)

At any rate, its just one extra step to jump through. But the part about taking in money, buying shares of individual stocks and then creating more ETF shares is basically the same.
 
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