China currency revaluation

Quote from silk:

China is expected to let their currency rise against the dollar in a few months.
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What makes you think they're going to do this soon? Of course they will ultimately be forced to revalue the peg or let it float entirely. But I'm very skeptical that this will occur "in the next few months" as you suggest.

Do you have any new information that would suggest otherwise?


Dr. Zhivodka
 
Quote from dddooo:

As we all made a ton of money in the markets :D, what's the best way to protect it from the upcoming inflation?

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If inflation really does begin to pick up substantially you could get short the yield curve for the mother trade of a lifetime. A trade like this might last ten years or more.

But so far the Bond market is saying "Sorry, but we ain't buying this reflation play yet Messer's Bush and Greenspan."

This next 12 months or so is has the potential to be very interesting.
 
People here on ET make such prognostications regarding the Renminbi (RMB, generally pronounced Yuan in written form), yet they don't even know how to spell it!

:D
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

What makes you think they're going to do this soon? Of course they will ultimately be forced to revalue the peg or let it float entirely. But I'm very skeptical that this will occur "in the next few months" as you suggest.

Do you have any new information that would suggest otherwise?


Dr. Zhivodka
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According to an article in The Straits Times on Monday (today),
a semi-private newspaper in China (The China Business Post) 'was widely quoted by world media' as strongly suggesting that the RMB would be adjusted substantially NEXT MONTH.

"The report caused traders to sell the US dollar on the yuan's offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) market, with the contracts reflecting an expected rise in the yuan of 5.5 per cent over a 12-month period."

"Over the following days, China's premier, central bank governor and foreign exchange chief all reiterated that the exchange rate, set at about 8.28 against the US dollar, would remain stable."

On Saturday the China Business Post published a short piece backing away from its original stance, stating that the content of the original article was the "result of a composite analysis obtained by the reporter after interviewing some economic experts."
 
Quote from dddooo:

As we all made a ton of money in the markets :D, what's the best way to protect it from the upcoming inflation?

I am aware of TIPS and TIPS based mutual funds, but I was wondering if they really work, given the fact that they (TIPS) are tied to CPI and can therefore be manipulated by the government? Any other alternatives?
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Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

According to an article in The Straits Times on Monday (today),
a semi-private newspaper in China (The China Business Post) 'was widely quoted by world media' as strongly suggesting that the RMB would be adjusted substantially NEXT MONTH.

"The report caused traders to sell the US dollar on the yuan's offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) market, with the contracts reflecting an expected rise in the yuan of 5.5 per cent over a 12-month period."

"Over the following days, China's premier, central bank governor and foreign exchange chief all reiterated that the exchange rate, set at about 8.28 against the US dollar, would remain stable."

On Saturday the China Business Post published a short piece backing away from its original stance, stating that the content of the original article was the "result of a composite analysis obtained by the reporter after interviewing some economic experts."
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Yeah, I saw that too. But I dismissed it as the Straits Times has always been rather inflammatory and not a great source of quality information, plus if I'm not mistaken it's based in Singapore, thus the term "Straits." They're just speculating, just like everyone else.


Even if we consider the story to be true a tiny 5.5% shift in the peg would add up to bubkus. This would hardly be the precursor to screaming inflation.

This is not to say that a serious pickup in domestic inflation won't ultimately happen. But as it stands now with the monetary and Fiscal pumps WIDE open we're getting squat-on-a-stick. The Bond market is laughing at the Administration and the Fed.

We shall see.

Best,
Dr. Zhivodka
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Yeah, I saw that too. But I dismissed it as the Straits Times has always been rather inflammatory and not a great source of quality information, plus if I'm not mistaken it's based in Singapore, thus the term "Straits." They're just speculating, just like everyone else.


Even if we consider the story to be true a tiny 5.5% shift in the peg would add up to bubkus. This would hardly be the precursor to screaming inflation.

This is not to say that a serious pickup in domestic inflation won't ultimately happen. But as it stands now with the monetary and Fiscal pumps WIDE open we're getting squat-on-a-stick. The Bond market is laughing at the Administration and the Fed.

We shall see.

Best,
Dr. Zhivodka
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The Straits Times inflammatory?? That's funny ... I thought you got out more than that. Singapore, and the Times, are more straight laced than your Grandma's bodice. :p

But yes, definitely NOT a great source of information ...

And anyway, if you had paid attention you would see the speculation originated in The China Business Post ... as in SHANGHAI, CHINA.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

The Straits Times inflammatory?? That's funny ... I thought you got out more than that. Singapore, and the Times, are more straight laced than your Grandma's bodice. :p

But yes, definitely NOT a great source of information ...

And anyway, if you had paid attention you would see the speculation originated in The China Business Post ... as in SHANGHAI, CHINA.
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Yet another ET'er who apparently feels the need to resort insults in order to elevate himself. I had hoped for more.

Another in a long line of reasons why this forum is a worthless waste of time.
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Yet another ET'er who apparently feels the need to resort insults in order to elevate himself. I had hoped for more.

Another in a long line of reasons why this forum is a worthless waste of time.
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To set the record straight, I have no needs w/ regards to you, and I've never met your Grandmother or her bodice - it was just a turn of phrase. :)

Didn't realize you were so sensitive ... next time I'll leave you unenlightened.
 
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