CHF 'No longer a safe haven'

Quote from Cutten:

Actually, long EUR short CHF may be the best play. This cross rate is fairly stable, most of the other price-moving factors are very similar between these two currencies, so your risk if wrong will be quite low. If you're right, then CHF will decouple from EUR due to the debt/crisis shock, much as the GBP decoupled from EUR a year ago (whereas before it was in a stable range).

Being long JPY or USD vs CHF exposes you to the individual risks of those currencies - with JPY, the risk that things calm down and/or the BoJ intervene could cause a 10-15% correction. With USD, any number of factors could cause a huge move either way. But EURCHF is only going to move 10%+ under two scenarios I can think of - that the Eurozone goes down the toilet (e.g. severe banking crises in the member states, or the whole currency project falls apart), or that Switzerland has a UK-style economic debacle. Assuming the Eurozone doesn't melt down first (and this seems unlikely - Switzerland is more vulnerable by far to the international effects), it therefore provides something akin to a free put option. If wrong, the cross rate should stay stable. If right, then CHF could fall 30 or 40% against the Euro.
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Long Gold short CHF could be also be a way to play this. A problem is that its hard to tell if gold is headed to a big fall during a deflationary enviroment, I can't make up my mind on gold one way or the other but the chart looks a bit bullish
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLD:$XSF&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t39178032851&r=8937
it shouldn't be hard to define the Risk Reward ratios(if gold loses some kind of support after all of these news from fed and treasury it cant possibly go up anymore)
I will probably settle with the EUR because of the factors you pointed out.

I'm watching the december highs 1.58 of EURCHF. Its about 5% from the current levels, since the EUR is trending down I rather stay out for now. I'm also watching for a new catalyst in terms of a banking news or government announcement coming down and the CHF reacting big, maybe I'm not folling the franc close enough but I'm yet to see a big fall on bad swiss news like it happens almost every week with the GBP
 
The Swiss Franc (CHF) benefited overnight on the Israel war tensions. The USD/CHF is looking to test the lows from December 18th at 1.0410.
 
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