Chevron is my nominee for biggest turkey in the market

B

billyjoerob

Chevron is coming on-line with a $5.5B LNG project in Australia just as nat gas prices are at historical lows around the world. Nevertheless, Chevron is near old highs. The chart looks ugly. Chevron investors are anticipating oil returning to the old prices. Not happening. And how does the market stay at this level if Chevron goes down to $70s or $60s, as the chart would suggest?

tumblr_o504dd5zjU1rvtbp6o1_500.png
 
Last edited:
I've heard this same argument at least 50 times: the cost of the marginal producer is over $50, therefore the price of oil has to go up. Nevermind that oil has only traded at these levels for a few months. But the bulls argument is backwards. Price does not adjust to producers, producers adjust to price. We still have Canadian oil sands producing despite very high costs, that's not sustainable. The market has not even begun to adjust, and yet the bulls are confident that price will adjust, not the other way around. Commodity markets can trade below marginal cost for years, that's how supply and demand balance. We aren't even close to that level of carnage yet. The fact that everyone seems to think $55 by the end of the year is a given is even more reason to be bearish.
 
IMO CVX is highly valued because of the dividend. Compare the dividend of CVX and some utilities and you will see why it is being supported at such a high price. Even utilities are overvalued, but that is what you get when yield chasers have to deal with zero interest rates.
 
Most of the dividend is funded by debt. But you're right, there is tremendous ordinary investor interest in CVX. THere is an article almost every other day on Seeking Alpha about CVX, which is pretty incredible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top