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- Thread starter N54_Fan
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FINALLY!!!!..... Made back about 3% today on what I think was a TERRIBLE tape. Bears finally got it together. I think there is very little upside left here and we have rolled over in most key sectors today. Bonds breaking out, dollar making higher highs, silver broke down today, Financials rolled over, emerging markets broke down, Euro rolling over even more and establishing a solid down trend, and many sectors that have led this market higher have rolled over in last 1-2 days. The few sectors that still have a bullish stance on my charts are the Transports, and Oil,....BUT Oil services had a terrible end to the day and rolled over despite the rocketing prices in Oil.
So far I see this market as topping and now I think the breakout to the upside that I suspected COULD occur is almost out of the question....HOWEVER, this market has frustrated me to no end recently so I will keep my stops where they are and plan to NOT move my stops until we make new lows. Part of what I learned this last month is that when I suspect a top is forming that I should allow for wider stops instead of allowing for EMA crossovers to take me out. This kept me in the SKF trade and has made a big impact for me today.
Comments?....any one reading this?
So far I see this market as topping and now I think the breakout to the upside that I suspected COULD occur is almost out of the question....HOWEVER, this market has frustrated me to no end recently so I will keep my stops where they are and plan to NOT move my stops until we make new lows. Part of what I learned this last month is that when I suspect a top is forming that I should allow for wider stops instead of allowing for EMA crossovers to take me out. This kept me in the SKF trade and has made a big impact for me today.
Comments?....any one reading this?
I'm sure there are plenty of lurkers, including myself. Don't be discouraged by lack of comments, which by the way, could be a good thing.
Also, most people on ET are short term traders, scalping index futures. They're at a loss of words, when it comes to swing trading.
You could also make your journal more colorful by posting some charts of the positions you're holding. That way, people could tag along more easily.
Keep up the good trading.
Schaefer
Thanks for the comments. I will try to post a few charts but quite frankly I dont have the time to make them too colorfull anymore.
I obviously look at charts at night but make them colorful on weekends. Do you think if I posted charts on the weekend of trades I took in the week that that would be helpful.?
Obviously I post my price and stops here in realtime so anyone following should be able to see what I see.
Todays trades.....IF they get filled: (Futures down about 0.75% right now so may not fill)
BWA short @ limit $66.39 with BUY TO COVER stop @ $68.09.
IBB short @ limit $94.39 with BUY TO COVER stop @ $96.01.
Great day today for me. Made up another 4.5%. So that means I have almost completely made up for the 7.5% loss for the last 4 weeks in ONLY 2 TRADING DAYS!! I realize this is so far unrealized gains (until I lock in profits) but at least my account value looks more normal and I am in trades on the right side of the market and I am letting my winners ride.
I am going to try to be a little more analytical about the charts when time allows me to do so. This is basically what I do when looking for a good entry into a position. This is especially important for me since I have a full time job and many days I am unable to even glance at the market. That is why I trade using MOSTLY end of day data and use intraday data when i am able to do so. So here goes my first "analysis" for those interested
I see ZERO signs of a reversal forming here on any charts/timeframes I trade. There appears to be a reversal that formed at the end of the day on the 5 min chart and probably the 15 min chart. This "reversal" is so far only looking like a retracement that will likely occur tomorrow and/or Mon in my opinion. Tomorrow is quite possibly going to drop as low as 1200 but I would expect a big pop there and retrace to middle of the downtrend. This would be somewhere ~1226-1240 range. That's ~1.2-2% higher than todays close price. This would also be somewhere between EMA 39 and EMA 13 on the 60 min chart...see chart. This is a common area of retracement and presents good value for taking new positions or adding to a position.
I generally will look to take a position on a trend that has already started when there is a retrace to this area (around EMA 13 on 60 min chart). Some of it is of course guesswork but I am often very close to the best price of the day for an entry. Other times (like today) my orders may not even get filled,...but thats is trading. I try not to chase. If it is a STRONG trend like the downtrend in silver the last few days I will plan on buying around the EMA 5 to EMA 13 instead.
So for tomorrow I will be UNABLE to watch the markets. I will place a OTO (One Triggers Other) order. I really want to BUY SMN as this appears to be a strong trend in the making. I will place my BUY order at $19.47 with a stop at $17.47. Thats $2 stop. Assuming a 1% risk on a 100K acct thats $1000/$2 stop = 500 shares at $19.47/share = $9735.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&id=p78543324146&a=249027710
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMN&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&id=p71708000686
I am going to try to be a little more analytical about the charts when time allows me to do so. This is basically what I do when looking for a good entry into a position. This is especially important for me since I have a full time job and many days I am unable to even glance at the market. That is why I trade using MOSTLY end of day data and use intraday data when i am able to do so. So here goes my first "analysis" for those interested
I see ZERO signs of a reversal forming here on any charts/timeframes I trade. There appears to be a reversal that formed at the end of the day on the 5 min chart and probably the 15 min chart. This "reversal" is so far only looking like a retracement that will likely occur tomorrow and/or Mon in my opinion. Tomorrow is quite possibly going to drop as low as 1200 but I would expect a big pop there and retrace to middle of the downtrend. This would be somewhere ~1226-1240 range. That's ~1.2-2% higher than todays close price. This would also be somewhere between EMA 39 and EMA 13 on the 60 min chart...see chart. This is a common area of retracement and presents good value for taking new positions or adding to a position.
I generally will look to take a position on a trend that has already started when there is a retrace to this area (around EMA 13 on 60 min chart). Some of it is of course guesswork but I am often very close to the best price of the day for an entry. Other times (like today) my orders may not even get filled,...but thats is trading. I try not to chase. If it is a STRONG trend like the downtrend in silver the last few days I will plan on buying around the EMA 5 to EMA 13 instead.
So for tomorrow I will be UNABLE to watch the markets. I will place a OTO (One Triggers Other) order. I really want to BUY SMN as this appears to be a strong trend in the making. I will place my BUY order at $19.47 with a stop at $17.47. Thats $2 stop. Assuming a 1% risk on a 100K acct thats $1000/$2 stop = 500 shares at $19.47/share = $9735.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&id=p78543324146&a=249027710
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMN&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&id=p71708000686
Just awoke this AM to see futures UP as I suspected. I would expect a bounce to the 1230-1240 area as mentioned above.
Trades:
Buy SMN limit order @ $19.47 with stop loss @ $17.47
Buy SDS limit order @ $20.68 with stop loss @ $19.68
SHORT EWC limit order @ $26.91 with stop loss @ $27.74
Stops:
EEV now @ $32.08
SKF now @ $62.97
ZSL now @ 11.47
CMCSA BUY TO COVER now @ $22.37
Trades:
Buy SMN limit order @ $19.47 with stop loss @ $17.47
Buy SDS limit order @ $20.68 with stop loss @ $19.68
SHORT EWC limit order @ $26.91 with stop loss @ $27.74
Stops:
EEV now @ $32.08
SKF now @ $62.97
ZSL now @ 11.47
CMCSA BUY TO COVER now @ $22.37