Check out the TATAs Journal...

Quote from adamm2:

You must do what you can to eliminate this. If you have positive expectancy in your system, you will make money. You can't win all the time (yes this is hard to accept), but you must remember there is almost always tomorrow, and the next trade.
More...

Thanks,...I know this and as we all know it is easier said than done. I do definitely have a positive expectancy system. The problem is that I have been killing this market until last month. Then when I get a string of intermittent losers and my worst month in a LONG time I start to doubt my system. But as you may see by my post above I am sticking with it and got back in my AET trade. Typically my system generates 65% probability win rate but lately its been ~25%.

Thanks for the words of encouragement!!:)

VMED stopped out for BUY to cover at B/E $24.46. Just lost commissions.
 
THIS is why I have been frustrated. Seems only those daytrading the Futures could play this market the last few weeks. Since I swing trade I have been conservative but still lost ~2.5%. Now I go long and of course the reversal I have been concerned about seems to be taking place. Anyway, enough venting!

AET stop raised to B/E stop limit of Stop = $40.13 and Limit = $39.24 which was my original stop loss. This will keep a flash crash type Market fill order risk to a minumum.

I will unfortunately be unable to watch the markets today so I will only be risking 2% total on 3 trades with each trade at 0.65% risk today. This market could change back up if Berlusconi suddenly resigns and I think is extremely news driven so TA has bee less than helpful.

SO,... Trades:
1) SDS Buy stop = $20.05 with limit = $20.33 with stop loss at $19.33

2) SKF Buy stop = $61.83 with limit = $62.71 with stop loss at $59.03

3) SMN Buy stop = $17.57 with limit = $18.14 with stop loss at $16.83
 
Decided to make buy limit SKF @ $61.97 and SMN limit @ $17.67. So far SDS filled at $20.23 and AET stopped out at $39.76
 
SDS stop moved to $19.43. Going to see how the beginning of the day goes before looking at commiting more capital. Other orders did not fill yesterday. May look to buy inverse ETFs today.
 
Quote from N54_Fan:

THIS is why I have been frustrated. Seems only those daytrading the Futures could play this market the last few weeks. Since I swing trade I have been conservative but still lost ~2.5%. Now I go long and of course the reversal I have been concerned about seems to be taking place. Anyway, enough venting!
More...

N54 I really like your style. You will be fine.

Remember -- you have already proven a positive expectancy with your strategies. You are all over risk management like stink on u know what-- this is what ultimately keeps you in the game during periods like this. Over the long haul these blips mean nothing. Remember that.

Question for you-

As far as your stop loss placements go-- do you have a specific method..i.e. volatility stop ratio on ATR... a break of a supply/demand zone or S/R line... a fixed %... etc?
 
Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

N54 I really like your style. You will be fine.

Remember -- you have already proven a positive expectancy with your strategies. You are all over risk management like stink on u know what-- this is what ultimately keeps you in the game during periods like this. Over the long haul these blips mean nothing. Remember that.

Question for you-

As far as your stop loss placements go-- do you have a specific method..i.e. volatility stop ratio on ATR... a break of a supply/demand zone or S/R line... a fixed %... etc?
More...

Thanks Riffraffpatrol. I have not posted over the weekend because I have been extremely busy at my full time job so i just saw your post. To answer you, I usually use a EMA type of crossover to determine stops. I have played around with ATR and found 2.9 * ATR seems like a decent stop as well but for highly volatile stocks you may need more and some it may be you need less. I have played with Elder's "Safe zone" stops and I just dont like any of them. EMA crossovers on a 60 min time frame have given me the confidence of always being on the right side of the move at all times. It does give a lot of whipsaws in tight ranges and with gap up open and reversals like we have had in the last few weeks but this is NOT the norm. Unfortunately when this whipsaw occurs I get frustrated and tend to lose sight of my rules. So for the last month I am now down about 7.5% with about 2.5% of that attributed to poor trading and NOT following my rules. Because I am trading poorly this last week I have decided to reduce my risk to 0.75%.

I reduced my risk also as I sold SDS to small loss at 20.03 today,...I was stopped out of SMN at a loss as well. I think the market seems to be at a point of decision and I think the next few days will determine alot about direction.

I will post tomorrows trades later tonight or tomorrow morning for those interested. Honestly, since my system has me whipsawed lately I didnt think anyone was reading this,....glad to see you are Riffraffpatrol.
 
Quote from deaddog:

Any reason you have switched from stocks to ultra ETFs?
More...

I trade both very frequently. I will choose either based on my system. If an index ETF gives me a signal I will trade the ultra ETF usually to maximize gains on a move. If I get stopped out I lose only 1% or less.

Today was mostly nonevent day. I moved stop on SKF up. This is currently only position. Stop on SKF = $62.13.

Waiting for some confirmation of a trend. I see the same pennant forming that everyone else sees on the daily SPX. However, there is a new trend DOWN forming in FXE and UPTREND in TLT is still intact with a BULL FLAG forming. Also UUP ($USD) in new early uptrend. ALL of these are bearish.

I also did mention the rising megaphone pattern on the weekly/daily charts and now there is one over the last few days on the 60 min chart. These show HIGH volatility ahead and I still cannot bring myself to believe this rally until we pass 1285. My signals keep whipsawing and so I choose to trade lightly. Also the daily chart shows a sell signal. Currently my system favors taking signals from the 60 min chart which currently says BUY...but very weak signal at that as there is a divergence which also says beware.

SO,...keeping my stop where it is on SKF (@ $62.13). Will plan on keeping in cash until the suspected breakout to the downside. With Euro down, Bull flag on US Bonds, early uptrend on $USD, Euro bonds yields skyrocketing and we are at MASSIVE resistance then I can not take a long trade here unless we have more of a breakout. If we break to 1285 I suspect we see a retracement after that back down to 1270 again. THEN the action there will determine if a upside breakout is simply a bull trap or a real move up. Real move up and I will pour money in this uptrend. Break to downside and pour money there as well.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top