Charts of Note

Opps.... I can request a "deletion" of the just- posted chart and repost it smaller if necessary. ET seems responsive to this. Let me know.
 
Quote from deucy28:

Is the following not true ? Nations like the U.S. with enormous amounts of its debt being held by sovereigns is at the hurtin' end of a choke leash ? .....Should our creditors' collective judgements be such that risk in holding U.S. debt climbs, it will be require higher yields on U.S. treasuries. The U.S. will be forced to print higher coupon rate I.O.U.'s.

John Mauldin and others have stated Japan has long been a flying bug waiting for a windshield. It's saving grace is its debt is being held domestically by its citizens and institutional investors who are reluctant to collapse its own government by demanding higher yields. Not beholding to foreign investors of its debt, Japan escapes the choke potentially put on it as experienced by a number of nations.
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In a world headed for recession, with Europe and China hurting, the United States is the best looking house in a bad neighborhood. Debt vulnerability has to be considered in terms of supply / demand dynamics. Demand for USD denominated assets looks set to uptrend, not downtrend, and the Fed can support the bond market any time it wants as long as the currency has sufficient demand.

This stuff is not as cut and dried as a lot of the disaster callers try to make it sound. The U.S. has various size, clout and production advantages analogous to Japan's domestic holder advantage. If someone put a gun to my head and said you have to go long dollars and USTs for the next two years or go short them, which one will it be, I would choose long.
 
Quote from darkhorse:

The U.S. has various size, clout and production advantages analogous to Japan's domestic holder advantage.

If someone put a gun to my head and said you have to go long dollars and USTs for the next two years or go short them, which one will it be, I would choose long.
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Unless I heard or understood wrong, the last time the FED Head met Congress, he intimated the Fed was out of bullets and continued the whine about needing a feckless Congress to do its job and initiate viable fiscal policy. It was then or perhaps later an official statement came out of the Fed it would continue to do what it had to do to fulfill its mandate. (How you do that without bullets, I'm not sure.)

To be fair, the quote from you did not specify the Fed. Perhaps you were referring in part to the U.S. selling off its assets ? ..... as was talked about one time the Greeks selling some of its islands ?

Can I infer that with you using a scenario as tough as having to have a gun to your head to make that decision to be long the U.S. that it is a tough one for you to make ? It was just as difficult for me to--as I have done--take the other side of that trade. My vision is a continued slow slide in quality of life that the resilient American will continue to accommodate to as the swimming frog in the increasingly heated water.
 
isn't the fed talking tommorrow? i'm long the near term vix future yet i still think its not going to be much of a down day.. i'm as terrible as you guys are at predicting.. haha
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

isn't the fed talking tommorrow? i'm long the near term vix future yet i still think its not going to be much of a down day.. i'm as terrible as you guys are at predicting.. haha
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tomorrow is down
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

Five heads don't increase the likelihood of tails next.

:)
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True, although I'm not sure the market can be compared to flipping coins. :)

Quote from cdcaveman:

i'm long the near term vix future yet i still think its not going to be much of a down day..
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I wonder if tomorrow will be like the big ECB meeting a couple months ago where Draghi disappointed and the VIX went down even though the market went down.
 
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