Chart watch - TMTA
- Thread starter Chagi
- Start date
It's actually a website that is generating those charts, it's a site that I use to keep an eye on my watchlists. It also has a couple of proprietary indicators that are nice for monitoring health of stocks without having to look through loads of charts every day.
Hopefully the moderators here won't have a problem with me posting the link to the site:
www.stockscores.com
Update - I haven't listened to the conference call yet, planning on doing so this evening, but I did have a chance to go through the 10-Q report (which was released today), and I found something very interesting.
The first thing that I thought of when I read Transmeta's 4th quarter guidance yesterday was "what happened to the Culturecom transaction?" For those not familiar, here is a quote from the previous 10-Q:
http://investor.transmeta.com/EdgarDetail.cfm?CIK=1001193&FID=891618-05-621&SID=05-00
"On May 26, 2005, we entered into related definitive asset purchase and license agreements with Culture.Com Technology Limited (âCulturecomâ), a Hong Kong based technology company. As part of the transaction, we agreed to sell our Crusoe product line to Culturecom. Culturecom will also license our 130-nanometer Efficeon technology to make and sell Efficeon-based products in Taiwan and China. In addition to up-front payments, Culturecom will pay royalties to us on sales by Culturecom of Crusoe and Efficeon products."
Transmeta would receive $15 mill in up-front payment, plus ongoing royalties.
So I was reading through the most recent 10-Q today, and found the following:
http://investor.transmeta.com/EdgarDetail.cfm?CIK=1001193&FID=950134-05-21040&SID=05-00
"On November 8, 2005, Culturecom and the Company amended the definitive asset purchase agreement to extend from December 31, 2005 to January 31, 2006, the date by which the closing conditions for the transaction must be satisfied."
So, based on Transmeta's guidance:
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http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051108/20051108006097.html?.v=1
For the 2005 fourth quarter and FYE 2005, we expect:
* Positive operating cash flow of $6.0 to $6.5 million in the second half of 2005, increased from prior guidance of breakeven cash flow for the second half
* Fourth quarter negative operating cash flow of $3.0 to $3.5 million
* FYE 2005 year end cash of $53.0 million, increased from prior guidance of $47.0 million
* Fourth quarter total revenue of $12.0 to $13.0 million
* Fourth quarter net loss of $5.4 to $5.9 million, or a loss of $0.03 per share"
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...this means that if the Culturecom deal had closed during 4th quarter, we would have been looking at a 4th quarter profit of roughly $0.05/share, rather than the projected 4th quarter loss of $0.03 per share. This would have meant 12 month trailing EPS of $0.03 (as of end of 4th quarter), rather than 12 month trailing EPS of ($0.05).
Instead of the above, the deal is likely to close 1st Quarter of their next fiscal year.
The first thing that I thought of when I read Transmeta's 4th quarter guidance yesterday was "what happened to the Culturecom transaction?" For those not familiar, here is a quote from the previous 10-Q:
http://investor.transmeta.com/EdgarDetail.cfm?CIK=1001193&FID=891618-05-621&SID=05-00
"On May 26, 2005, we entered into related definitive asset purchase and license agreements with Culture.Com Technology Limited (âCulturecomâ), a Hong Kong based technology company. As part of the transaction, we agreed to sell our Crusoe product line to Culturecom. Culturecom will also license our 130-nanometer Efficeon technology to make and sell Efficeon-based products in Taiwan and China. In addition to up-front payments, Culturecom will pay royalties to us on sales by Culturecom of Crusoe and Efficeon products."
Transmeta would receive $15 mill in up-front payment, plus ongoing royalties.
So I was reading through the most recent 10-Q today, and found the following:
http://investor.transmeta.com/EdgarDetail.cfm?CIK=1001193&FID=950134-05-21040&SID=05-00
"On November 8, 2005, Culturecom and the Company amended the definitive asset purchase agreement to extend from December 31, 2005 to January 31, 2006, the date by which the closing conditions for the transaction must be satisfied."
So, based on Transmeta's guidance:
-------------------------------------------------
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051108/20051108006097.html?.v=1
For the 2005 fourth quarter and FYE 2005, we expect:
* Positive operating cash flow of $6.0 to $6.5 million in the second half of 2005, increased from prior guidance of breakeven cash flow for the second half
* Fourth quarter negative operating cash flow of $3.0 to $3.5 million
* FYE 2005 year end cash of $53.0 million, increased from prior guidance of $47.0 million
* Fourth quarter total revenue of $12.0 to $13.0 million
* Fourth quarter net loss of $5.4 to $5.9 million, or a loss of $0.03 per share"
-------------------------------------------------
...this means that if the Culturecom deal had closed during 4th quarter, we would have been looking at a 4th quarter profit of roughly $0.05/share, rather than the projected 4th quarter loss of $0.03 per share. This would have meant 12 month trailing EPS of $0.03 (as of end of 4th quarter), rather than 12 month trailing EPS of ($0.05).
Instead of the above, the deal is likely to close 1st Quarter of their next fiscal year.
Update on TMTA. Culturecom announced their '05 interum results. No real new news here just reiteration on the deal with TMTA. Looks to me like it should close in Q1 06. (15 Million upfront cash payment)
Bought 1/2 position at 1.11 during the past 5 or so trading days. Will add another 1/2 if the 1.10 level holds and shows price improvement.
I like being ahead of the curve...... (pun intended)
Bought 1/2 position at 1.11 during the past 5 or so trading days. Will add another 1/2 if the 1.10 level holds and shows price improvement.
I like being ahead of the curve...... (pun intended)
Thanks for posting this, I've been keeping an eye on the TMTA charts.
Did you read that "one good quarter does not make a turnaround" story on USAToday about TMTA? I actually e-mailed the author of that article, because it was clear that he didn't bother to do anything more than very cursory research into the company before writing it.
For example, it's been at least two good quarters thus far.
TMTA Update. Just as I suspected. The 1.10 level held and confirmed an upward trend. now we have another high volume price appreciation.
I find it curious that just yesterday Culturecom releases a press announcement about unusual volume and price appreciation on no news. Today we have the 2nd straight significant up day for TMTA.
OT: After having years of fun trading SONS I have neglected it over the past 6 months and can't belive i missed my opportunity to purchase it below $3.50 Want another example of TA creating profits? Look at SONS
I find it curious that just yesterday Culturecom releases a press announcement about unusual volume and price appreciation on no news. Today we have the 2nd straight significant up day for TMTA.
OT: After having years of fun trading SONS I have neglected it over the past 6 months and can't belive i missed my opportunity to purchase it below $3.50 Want another example of TA creating profits? Look at SONS
Quote from Chagi:
Thanks for posting this, I've been keeping an eye on the TMTA charts.
Did you read that "one good quarter does not make a turnaround" story on USAToday about TMTA? I actually e-mailed the author of that article, because it was clear that he didn't bother to do anything more than very cursory research into the company before writing it.
For example, it's been at least two good quarters thus far.
Looks good to me. Any clues as to the expected earnings growth rate?
Guessing the earnings Growth rate is impossible.
Essentially we have no idea how large the royalties will be. The fact is that TMTA could be a part of every derivitive of the CELL processor, or just a couple.
It could be in Every new NEC cell phone or a couple.
We do not know what is going on with Microsoft (building their own chip?).
Fujisu is building a new 65nm fab @ 25,000 wafers/mo (will they include LR2? if so, tack on anywhere from .02-.05 on TMTA's earnings?)
Keep in mind They are going to get 90% or greater net margin on ALL of these projects.
The first 1/2 of this year could see this company providing us with some better guidance. They have already stated that revenues will be lumpy until royalties kick in. (Guessing 2nd 1/2 of 06)
Keep in mind this is all speculation. But I think that their IP is worth a heck of a lot more than 200 Million. I'll trade in and out of the stock if it gets absurd (ie. $2.00 a couple months ago) but as the future royalty stream becomes more clear, This will turn into a LT investment.
Essentially we have no idea how large the royalties will be. The fact is that TMTA could be a part of every derivitive of the CELL processor, or just a couple.
It could be in Every new NEC cell phone or a couple.
We do not know what is going on with Microsoft (building their own chip?).
Fujisu is building a new 65nm fab @ 25,000 wafers/mo (will they include LR2? if so, tack on anywhere from .02-.05 on TMTA's earnings?)
Keep in mind They are going to get 90% or greater net margin on ALL of these projects.
The first 1/2 of this year could see this company providing us with some better guidance. They have already stated that revenues will be lumpy until royalties kick in. (Guessing 2nd 1/2 of 06)
Keep in mind this is all speculation. But I think that their IP is worth a heck of a lot more than 200 Million. I'll trade in and out of the stock if it gets absurd (ie. $2.00 a couple months ago) but as the future royalty stream becomes more clear, This will turn into a LT investment.