Lately I have been thinking more and more about charts and chart patterns of how they are seen / intrepid today versus 30 - 40 years ago.
Today, with all the instant information available to anyone about every aspect of the markets, along with every person and their grandmother being able to read and understand chart patterns.... do they really have the same meaning as they once did decades ago??
So often in so many sites i been in and so many traders i have seen experience failed set-ups after set-ups.... yet every one still considers charts legitimate. How many times have you not been in a trading room or on a service, where you see a set-up fail more often than not... and everyone still buying into the myth that somehow we should be looking for "a b c ... x y z set up?
How many times in your own trading did a perfect set-up not follow through.... making you get out at your stop loss limit?
My point is..... if a set-up or pattern only works 50% of the time or less..... then is it really a set-up?? I know I know.... have a stop loss in place.... and as long and the loss is smaller then the gain when it does work... then you should make money.... providing your sharpe ratio and batting average are set up correct.... But ... its still a coin flip whether or not a set-up will work is it not? ... same as random....
Only problem is.... the more i think about it the more i see a change in the markets. I'm beginnig to think that these set-ups and patterns can and will be used against you on any given trading day. Its not an advantage at all. To me it seems discipline is now much more critical to a trader than chart knowledge.... which is still why newbies get wiped out.
Pull up a chart... ask 10 different pros to interpret it.... the answer will be all across the board.... but regardless of the outcome... all ten pros can control their money management with superior discipline.... giving them a heads up the rest of the dumb money.
Today i think more and more pro money is looking at charts and patterns and trying to see how they can use it against the rest of the crowd. .... just like they do with economic reports.... earnings... and news releases.
Look at some of the high multiple stocks out there with strong charts.... what happens when the earnings come out and the numbers only meet or hardly exceed the whisper.... KA-PLUNK!!
Chart patterns are going the way of the dinosaur i think.
Today, with all the instant information available to anyone about every aspect of the markets, along with every person and their grandmother being able to read and understand chart patterns.... do they really have the same meaning as they once did decades ago??
So often in so many sites i been in and so many traders i have seen experience failed set-ups after set-ups.... yet every one still considers charts legitimate. How many times have you not been in a trading room or on a service, where you see a set-up fail more often than not... and everyone still buying into the myth that somehow we should be looking for "a b c ... x y z set up?
How many times in your own trading did a perfect set-up not follow through.... making you get out at your stop loss limit?
My point is..... if a set-up or pattern only works 50% of the time or less..... then is it really a set-up?? I know I know.... have a stop loss in place.... and as long and the loss is smaller then the gain when it does work... then you should make money.... providing your sharpe ratio and batting average are set up correct.... But ... its still a coin flip whether or not a set-up will work is it not? ... same as random....
Only problem is.... the more i think about it the more i see a change in the markets. I'm beginnig to think that these set-ups and patterns can and will be used against you on any given trading day. Its not an advantage at all. To me it seems discipline is now much more critical to a trader than chart knowledge.... which is still why newbies get wiped out.
Pull up a chart... ask 10 different pros to interpret it.... the answer will be all across the board.... but regardless of the outcome... all ten pros can control their money management with superior discipline.... giving them a heads up the rest of the dumb money.
Today i think more and more pro money is looking at charts and patterns and trying to see how they can use it against the rest of the crowd. .... just like they do with economic reports.... earnings... and news releases.
Look at some of the high multiple stocks out there with strong charts.... what happens when the earnings come out and the numbers only meet or hardly exceed the whisper.... KA-PLUNK!!
Chart patterns are going the way of the dinosaur i think.