Quote from maxpi:
Jack, if I understood what you were talking about I would agree 100%, for sure. Just kidding.
I mentioned in another post that trends are defined by their ends and got trashed, sort of. It's just a y=mx + b representation, a simplification for sure, but a useful one. I did focus on the end points of trends and got some satisfying results at one point.
NeoTicker has a feature where you can capture part of a chart and tech analysis overlays and use that as backtesting criteria. Never tried it myself but on the surface it seems like a real easy way to get underway with testing pattern ideas.
Max
Thanks for the reference. I agree with you that end effects is a very fertile area.
To get o the opportunity you have to recognize that ends do not occur on EOD data. I tune through seven fractals to find the optimum one for a given market pace.
Then I pair the fractal with the next fastest one for using the maths for anticipation.
Between these two fractals that slip and slide with market pace changes, you arrive in end effects land.
it is neat to think about when the back testing industry is going to get a wakeup call that says what they are doing isn't quite useful at all.
Some of those backtesters actually change their trading algorithms to improve their backtesting results. strange to say but the backtesting approaches drive the situation and that prevents iterative refinement because they get into curve fitting.
Capturing a part of a chart and then fixing the trading algorithm sounds terrific to me. Back testing after the fix is then a possibility.
That was funny when you remarked about not getting very far with the general linear equation.
Trying to get a response from the thread originator on the ROI ball park was about the same.
Obviously he is dealing with a lousy set of stocks to begin with and his backtest period is pure humor as it goes through the markets that occurred.
Can you imagine what would happen if he worked into delineations like market sectors??? I use excel to optimize my universe by emp[loying sector analysis. It is really neat to see how money is made as the sectors rotate and cycle.