Charge: It’s a 2-point race, not 16, pro-Biden media polls trying to suppress Trump vote

Joe isn't even achieving the numbers Hillary managed and she is arguably the most hated women in American politics.

The polls are skewed either by methodology or non-candid responses of those being polled. I'll believe the Electoral College outcome if we ever get one.
 
Snarkhund said:
Joe isn't even achieving the numbers Hillary managed and she is arguably the most hated women in American politics.

The polls are skewed either by methodology or non-candid responses of those being polled. I'll believe the Electoral College outcome if we ever get one.
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Polling behind Hillary at this stage is not a good sign for Biden!
 
FortuneTeller said:
Polling behind Hillary at this stage is not a good sign for Biden!
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The media is countering that by saying Joe is more likeable than Hillary and that may be true. Godzilla is more likeable than Hillary Clinton.

Kamala is hurting Joe somewhat but I'm not sure who else he could have picked given the box he put himself into on Veep choice. Its hard to believe there isn't a black woman somewhere in the country more qualified and less detestable.
 
Zogby is 100 percent correct.

So Zogby sample uses a template of plus 4 dem.
The JEM algo would put it at plus 2 or 3.
I would say the proper template could range for plus 1 to plus 5 dem.

When you use a legitimate turnout model the race is inside the margin for error.
 



Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November

https://www.zerohedge.com/political...ection-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november

Trafalgar Group was named best polling firm of 2016 presidential race. It was one of few pollsters to predict Trump would win PA and MI (sources: Trafalgar Group and RealClearPolitics) and also Trump's victory. This is what Politico wrote in its post-election mea culpa about the Trafalgar Group:

The signs of a polling disaster were all there, but almost no one besides Donald Trump was paying attention.

There were surveys showing Trump winning, but they were ignored by most news outlets, dismissed as partisan polls conducted using automated phone technology that eschews calling cell-phone users.

the state polling this year was sparse, especially in the closing days. Of the 11 states POLITICO identified as Electoral College battlegrounds earlier this year, four of them didn’t see a nonpartisan, public, live-interview poll for the final week of the campaign: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Taken together, it was a recipe for an epic polling failure.

* * *

Few, it seems, paid attention to the surveys from the Trafalgar Group – a Georgia-based consulting firm that, on its website, celebrates the time RealClearPolitics picked up one of its Florida primary polls – showing Trump ahead. The group’s Pennsylvania poll was the only one of dozens since late July to show the GOP nominee in the lead there – but it was also the only poll conducted into this past weekend, as voters made their final choices.

The Trafalgar Group was somewhat prolific on Monday, the day before the election, releasing surveys in Florida (Trump ahead by 4 points), Michigan (Trump ahead by 2 points) and Georgia (Trump ahead by 7 points).
 
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