Channels

I use adaptive price channels in Forex trading. I don't use linear or parallel line style channels. I prefer Center of Gravity and Polynomial Regression channels, both re-painting and unique non-repainting version which I coded up. I use these channels to "frame up" the price action for buy and sell zone identification. I confirm my trades with price momentum alignment.


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Quote from frenchfry:

This is the old question: Is it a retrace or a reversal?

Looking at some old JH statements you will find:

1. Trends don't change at the LTL!
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when price hits LTL further strength expected ?
 
Quote from tradingbug:

Here is a real time example of hitting the ltl....the volume is without a doubt peaking volume and hit the left trend line. Do we hold looking for a VE or exit...what are the clues to hold or not. FYI, I exited on the ltl to play it safe and have capital to put into something else.
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I would monitor and analyze bar by bar instead of being paralyzed by LTL.

On the most current bar, you have strong gapped up from prior day's high with extreme volume. The pullback from open fails to close the gap palely and the day is closed on the high side. The historical high resistance level at 60-ish has been whipped over the last two days and broke out handsomely on the most current bar. WJO would say the bar is a professional buying day, a very strong accumulation indeed.

If I were you, I would keep the stock until I see several real signs of weakness eg declining volume, narrower bar range, exhaustion gap, IBGS with volume, market topping, etc.

Channel is important but is not everything.
 
Quote from toolazy:

when price hits LTL further strength expected ?
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I didn't read that. I only read that the LTL is not the place where trends change. It can a) create a VE b) retrace and c) move laterally.

Now I'm inventing again!!! Put price in containers... at all times... decide which one you want to trade.... at the FTT of that container exit or reverse.

But I see you are trading stocks. If you are following Jack's PVT then the exit (and entry) rule is clearly defined.
 
to be honest I do not use channels but next week plan to buy into XOM to add to my slow moving oil stock position and had a look and no doubt see nice channel.

Looks price has failed on resistance. So that is bad I guess. There is large volume on Friday open .... someone accumulating as bar closed up ?

Any suggestions ?




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Quote from toolazy:

to be honest I do not use channels but next week plan to buy into XOM to add to my slow moving oil stock position and had a look and no doubt see nice channel.

Looks price has failed on resistance. So that is bad I guess. There is large volume on Friday open .... someone accumulating as bar closed up ?

Any suggestions ?




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i am having people over tonight,how much food and drink should i have on hand,any suggestions,can't help me because you don't have enough info ? , what info are u using to make this a good add to your oil stock position,what is your target,where do you cut losses? Was that volume due to end of quarter rebalancing?
 

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for what it is worth - remember you are the one risking your money :D ,
- what about plotting the mid line of the channel?
- it looks like price likes being above this midline now.
for me, I would wait for a breakout of the high at 89.75
with a small stop.
- IF it really pushes below this middle line, then things are
different, and the trade idea would be to see if a short
during a retrace around this middle line makes sense.
Now remember this is just speculation.
 
Quote from ammo:

i am having people over tonight,how much food and drink should i have on hand,any suggestions,can't help me because you don't have enough info ? , what info are u using to make this a good add to your oil stock position,what is your target,where do you cut losses? Was that volume due to end of quarter rebalancing?
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Use non TA tools to make purchase decision. Have time stop 1 day after purchase to get rid of if not performant enough, else double up. Target min 100.
 
Quote from smallStops:

for what it is worth - remember you are the one risking your money :D ,
- what about plotting the mid line of the channel?
- it looks like price likes being above this midline now.
for me, I would wait for a breakout of the high at 89.75
with a small stop.
- IF it really pushes below this middle line, then things are
different, and the trade idea would be to see if a short
during a retrace around this middle line makes sense.
Now remember this is just speculation.
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problem with that approach for me is that odds are not enough skewed in my favour (at least do not have evidence) so I don't use this type of ideas.
 
Quote from tradingbug:

Here is a real time example of hitting the ltl....the volume is without a doubt peaking volume and hit the left trend line. Do we hold looking for a VE or exit...what are the clues to hold or not. FYI, I exited on the ltl to play it safe and have capital to put into something else.
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So in THIS example Jack was right. ;-)
 
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