Changing Strategies

stock777 · Nov 4, 2013

my suggestion, try a different racket altogether.

NoDoji · Nov 4, 2013

Quote from dennis_alden:

I have also found that the money made with a trend trading strategy is usually lost during times when a range starts and vice versa. It would be cool to have an indicator that kind of indicates when the change occurs.

I haven't studied trend vs range strategies in swing trading over multiple days/weeks, but I studied in GREAT detail how to avoid getting chopped when price ranges intraday. Everything I need to profitably day trade liquid instruments without getting chopped was found by tedious study of price action on the the 5-min and 1-min charts with a 20-period EMA on each chart.

I promise you it's all right there. There's no magic indicator needed; just an understanding of how group psychology applies to levels that many eyes are watching.

NoDoji · Nov 4, 2013

Quote from SpunkyTrader:

Exactly, but do you think this will change drastically over time?

I've asked a few times before if anyone could provide some examples of price action concepts changing over time and have yet to see an example of this.

MarketAddict · Nov 4, 2013

Quote from NoDoji:

I haven't studied trend vs range strategies in swing trading over multiple days/weeks, but I studied in GREAT detail how to avoid getting chopped when price ranges intraday. Everything I need to profitably day trade liquid instruments without getting chopped was found by tedious study of price action on the the 5-min and 1-min charts with a 20-period EMA on each chart.

I promise you it's all right there. There's no magic indicator needed; just an understanding of how group psychology applies to levels that many eyes are watching.

Do you take pin bars?

NoDoji · Nov 4, 2013

Quote from MarketAddict:

Do you take pin bars?

They aren't a trade signal for me in isolation.

MarketAddict · Nov 4, 2013

Quote from NoDoji:

They aren't a trade signal for me in isolation.

So you don't care too much about one candle stick as a signal? You are more into patterns? Maybe a failed top or bottom?

bighog · Nov 5, 2013

Quote from dennis_alden:

I have also found that the money made with a trend trading strategy is usually lost during times when a range starts and vice versa. It would be cool to have an indicator that kind of indicates when the change occurs.

Dennis, please understand this about playing in a game of chance.

There "AIN'T" no indicator to replace your brain.

Many have tried to drill that truism into newer traders that have a FALSE assumption about what indicators can and can not bring to the game.

Here is a good example of a failed indicator: marketsurfer had an agenda babbling about what works and what did not work. Well, TA is alive and well after all.

If you make money in trends and then "try to manufacture a new trend" in chop and lose not only money but also your mental advantage that is REQUIRED in a game of chance why would any sane person not grasp the SA of the moment and switch gears or sit tight as a bug and wait for the right CONDITIONS for the next trade?

SA = SITUATION AWARENESS OK, done for today

Butterfly · Nov 5, 2013

forecasting regime change has been a hot topic for decades,

it's as reliable as forecasting future interest rates

techniques do exist to "measure" shit in regimes, but are they really reliable ?

NoDoji · Nov 5, 2013

Quote from MarketAddict:

So you don't care too much about one candle stick as a signal? You are more into patterns? Maybe a failed top or bottom?

One candlestick is not a signal for me in isolation. The behavior of the current bar-in-progress against the backdrop of previous price action may signal a trade.

I look at the story leading into the hard right edge and I make note of levels that will be next in line to be defended if price gets there. If a trade is signaled and there's decent "airspace" to that next level, I look for an entry method that allows me to have a R:R of no less than 1:1 based on a technically reasonable stop loss placement.

MarketAddict · Nov 5, 2013

Quote from NoDoji:

One candlestick is not a signal for me in isolation. The behavior of the current bar-in-progress against the backdrop of previous price action may signal a trade.

I look at the story leading into the hard right edge and I make note of levels that will be next in line to be defended if price gets there. If a trade is signaled and there's decent "airspace" to that next level, I look for an entry method that allows me to have a R:R of no less than 1:1 based on a technically reasonable stop loss placement.

How do you come up with these levels?

What do you mean by the backdrop of previous price action ?

And do you put your stop at the previous swing low/high?

Changing Strategies

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