You hit upon fallacy. The "best" money managers can't guarantee 15% but yet anyone with some good execution skills can beat that handedly. How can that be? Either these guys aren't the best managers, or their strategies are not nearly as levered, or their strategies scale and the day trader's doesn't.
Obsolescence is the greatest risk. The street is full of traders who were put out by market changes or innovations. In speculation, catastrophic blowup is always a risk no matter how good you are. And a permanent impairment of capital can be career ending. You should be compensated for these two risks even if you are so good that you will never blow up or be obsoleted by a change in market dynamics/regulations/structure.
I don't think a pure speculator should be playing just for income. There are many less risky ways to earn a good income. Any good trader would understand risk/reward and know where they should not play. Over 30 years, if you can't scale your account you are missing out on some real wealth creation.
All those companies you cited are trying to grow their businesses - they want to grow their revenues, their market share, and their margins. Some pay dividends, but those are a fraction of their earnings. The only institutions that don't try to grow are called "life style" businesses. Basically the owner has bought himself a job. That's a fine option, but then you should probably be in a business that has the same characteristics of a job (stable recurring income).
I may not be the best trader on this forum. My guess is your sharp and your %age returns are much better than mine over the last 10 years. But I have been able to compound my account in a small institutional account. I will likely get to a situation where i will be capital constrained in the next 7 years. I'm already planning on how i will continue to grow my wealth when that happens.
If you want to take this privately, we can talk more openly.
It's simple, money managers found out they didn't have the stomach for trading or couldn't get a knack for it. It's not for everyone, it's not for most, so they do something more docile. I don't want to debate tickers, the example I gave you are the market definition of mature companies. Startups are growth companies, not IBM, GE, Coca Cola, or Boeing.
There's no "market obsolescence." Big money and the MMs are running
the exact same games they've been running for 100 years, none of it's changed other than it's done with computers. It hasn't changed
because it works. Same games. If you understand the market is 100% manipulated 100% of the time, you study their game, how they do it, so you can read their intent, trade with them, and not getting steered where they want you. If you understand where they're steering traders with fear, you play their game better. Anyone who got "run out," did so only because they didn't manage position size well, which is 90% of traders, based on the
only reason traders lose money - - emotion.
I appreciate the offer for a private chat, but you seem less interested in improving craft, and more about expressing beliefs, which doesn't create a learning environment either direction. I was mentored from deep insiders how the market works (from the inside). It was shocking at first, but cool once you accept and understand "the game behind the game," then learn how to play it. I can tell you twenty ways til Sunday how everything is manipulated, how to read and play it, but it takes time and practice to use that intel in real time. I can't force you to be interested. If it's not a passion, it's not. I've helped a lot of people change their trading for better, more consistent gains, but the ones who do so have open hearts.
You have opinions, which is fine, it's just that many of the "scary" market beliefs you hold can be demystified if you put the work into craft, in the right way, to understand "the game behind the game."
Have a great weekend.
