Chances we are going into a full-blown bear market?

[lovethetrade]

It's impossible to predict the market based on technicals but the beauty of it is you don't need to.

The only assertion I'd feel comfortable making is there's 50% probability the S&P Index stays below it's all-time high for the next 3 months. Other than that, it's pure speculation.

 

[comagnum]

Its not important what the market does in the months to come & has no bearing on my bottom line. Less experienced traders often struggle with not knowing with certainty what they will do next, yet they focus on trying to predict what the market will do next.

 

[Saltynuts]

Wow comagnum, VERY interesting chart. So.... short the VIX pretty darned soon?

 

[SteveM]

Comagnum's monthly VIX chart is fascinating to me. The market was so complacent lately, that this slight volatility wake-up was enough to send the VIX screaming higher to levels above the '98 Asian/LTCM crisis, the '98 Russian default and 9/11/01.

We just witnessed a once-per-decade type of event - with no apparent catalyst. Simply amazing.

 

[Pekelo]

It's impossible to predict the market based on technicals but the beauty of it is you don't need to.

The only assertion I'd feel comfortable making is there's 50% probability the S&P Index stays below it's all-time high for the next 3 months. Other than that, it's pure speculation.

1. Why would it be impossible to predict the market using TA? Just because you can't....

2. It is impossible to give odds like you did to market events. There is simply no way to assign and odds whatsoever.

 

[lovethetrade]

1. Why would it be impossible to predict the market using TA? Just because you can't....

2. It is impossible to give odds like you did to market events. There is simply no way to assign and odds whatsoever.

Predicting is pointless because you'll do what the market tells you to do anyway.

I agree, it's pointless to give odds, it was simply to highlight the fact that looking even further into future is even more pointless.

 

[DaveV]

I seriously doubt that we are seeing the beginning of a long bear market. The two greatest boosts to the earnings of US companies in years are the reduction of the corporate tax rate, and the reduced tax in repatriating earnings. Yet stocks today are cheaper than before the law was passed. Plus recent earnings releases have been positive, and worldwide economic climate is good. Once traders get past their fears of possibly higher interest rates and inflation, I expect stock prices to rise.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

do you feel fear on the street like in 2007?

President T is going to have his parade to show to Kim Jong Un he has bigger button than that impoverished king.

 

[Chris Mac]

Well, I don't have much of a prediction, but I've been bearish since last Thursday. Hanging on to my winning puts and shorts with a target of their MA200 (which actually lines up nicely with SPX MA200). Looking for another 5-6% decline before next Friday. Will cry uncle if we breach the dead cat highs.

Longer term, I'm still bullish, and next week will hopefully present some buying opportunities. Will bail quick if we breach MA200 with conviction. But I'll be buying as we round (what I think is) the bottom.

+1

CM

 

[ironchef]

Its not important what the market does in the months to come & has no bearing on my bottom line. Less experienced traders often struggle with not knowing with certainty what they will do next, yet they focus on trying to predict what the market will do next.

Interesting you labeled the current spike "Trump". Also interesting the level is already on par with past spike. If history and human nature are any guide, this thing will take a little more time to damp out.