It's possible, this article puts forth some interesting thoughts about it:
What if Obama quit?
POSTED AT 10:20 AM ON AUGUST 21, 2011 BY ED MORRISSEY
Iâm not talking about resignation, or just refusing to offer any proposals until after the next election. What if Obama simply decided not to run for a second term as President?
The thought occurred to me after reading Peggy Noonanâs piece this week for the Wall Street Journal, which argues that Obama has already quit in a practical sense:
Some will scoff at the notion that Obama and his large ego would walk away from the office, but LBJ was also rumored to think pretty highly of himself. Itâs a low-probability outcome, but it isnât a zero probability outcome. Obamaâs ratings have tanked this year along with the economy, and he hasnât come up with an original thought on economic policy since Porkulus. The leaks of his rumored plan sound a lot like Porkulus II, a sequel to a flop. This gives the impression that Obama has run out of ideas, and as Noonan argues in her piece, his attacks on Republicans for their supposed refusal to pass a plan he has yet to even submit to them sounds like a man who realizes that heâs out of ideas, too.
But the decision may end up being out of his hands if the political environment doesnât improve. Obamaâs numbers are plummeting in places Democrats can hardly afford to lose. In Pennsylvania, where Obama will top a ticket that also includes Bob Caseyâs bid for a second Senate term, heâs either at 43% approval (Quinnipiac) or at 35% (Muhlenberg). Wisconsin turned Republican last year and a series of elections this year confirmed it, and Herb Kohlâs seat in the Senate is up for grabs. Obama can be expected to drag down the ticket in Virginia (James Webbâs seat is open), Florida (Bill Nelson), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Maryland (Ben Cardin), and Michigan (Debbie Stabenow). Obama is underwater in New York and New Jersey already, two normally staunch Democratic states, both with Senate races on the line as well. If Obama runs at the top of those tickets, he might eke out victories in the two states, but his presence on the ticket will depress Democratic turnout and might endanger Kirsten Gillibrand and Robert Menendez; Democrats would almost certainly have to spend a ton of money to bolster them that theyâd normally spend elsewhere.
Democrats will be looking at a massacre in the Senate, and thatâs not even including already-endangered seats in Nebraska, Missouri, Montana, and New Mexico, which just elected its first Republican woman governor last year. Democrats could wind up losing enough seats to give Republicans a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate if Obama chases away the white working-class vote that heâs been alienating for the past two years on ObamaCare and now his disastrous economic performance. If unemployment starts rising and growth remains low in the next few months, Democrats may insist on Obama finding a graceful exit before the primaries.
And guess who that leaves with an open path to the Democratic nomination? Hillary Clinton. She can step into the void with promises to return America to the economic policies of her husband. The Left may not have much love for Hillary any longer, but she was winning the very working-class Democrats in the 2008 primaries that Obama is losing to the Republicans now. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan would snap back into place for Democrats, and perhaps Wisconsin as well. Having Obama off the top of the ticket would take some of the downward pressure off of some other Senate races, and Hillary would likely be a plus in most.
If Hillary took Obamaâs place in 2012, Republicans would face a much tougher electoral map. They would still have the advantage of running against Obamaâs record, but the GOP may not capture that disaffected Democratic working-class vote if Hillary also ran against Obamanomics and promised a return to Clintonian prosperity. The eventual Republican nominee would have at least a tougher task in winning those votes and the White House. And even if Hillary lost in a general election â Democrats lost the White House in 1952 and 1968, coincidentally both times with Richard Nixon on the Republican tickets â the Democrats might save a few Senate seats with an improved turnout in key states.
All of this is entirely speculative, of course, but itâs not impossible, either. Democrats might be loathe to push the nationâs first African-American President into an early retirement, but they may eventually balk at committing political suicide if Obamaâs numbers and the economy keep going south in the next few months. Under those conditions, even Obama might be ready to walk away without much pushing.
What if Obama quit?
POSTED AT 10:20 AM ON AUGUST 21, 2011 BY ED MORRISSEY
Iâm not talking about resignation, or just refusing to offer any proposals until after the next election. What if Obama simply decided not to run for a second term as President?
The thought occurred to me after reading Peggy Noonanâs piece this week for the Wall Street Journal, which argues that Obama has already quit in a practical sense:
Nothing says that Obama has to run for a second term in office. We have had Presidents walk away from opportunities to run for re-election. Prior to FDR, that would include every President who didnât run for a third term, of course, but there are examples in the post-22nd Amendment era, too. Harry Truman was specifically exempted from the term limits imposed by the constitutional amendment but chose not to run for a second full term in 1952. Lyndon Johnson also chose not to run for his second full term in 1968. Both men made those choices at least in large part because they had become so unpopular that they clearly couldnât win, especially LBJ. Another parallel to LBJ is the effect of having an unpopular war tied around a presidentâs neck.
Some will scoff at the notion that Obama and his large ego would walk away from the office, but LBJ was also rumored to think pretty highly of himself. Itâs a low-probability outcome, but it isnât a zero probability outcome. Obamaâs ratings have tanked this year along with the economy, and he hasnât come up with an original thought on economic policy since Porkulus. The leaks of his rumored plan sound a lot like Porkulus II, a sequel to a flop. This gives the impression that Obama has run out of ideas, and as Noonan argues in her piece, his attacks on Republicans for their supposed refusal to pass a plan he has yet to even submit to them sounds like a man who realizes that heâs out of ideas, too.
But the decision may end up being out of his hands if the political environment doesnât improve. Obamaâs numbers are plummeting in places Democrats can hardly afford to lose. In Pennsylvania, where Obama will top a ticket that also includes Bob Caseyâs bid for a second Senate term, heâs either at 43% approval (Quinnipiac) or at 35% (Muhlenberg). Wisconsin turned Republican last year and a series of elections this year confirmed it, and Herb Kohlâs seat in the Senate is up for grabs. Obama can be expected to drag down the ticket in Virginia (James Webbâs seat is open), Florida (Bill Nelson), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Maryland (Ben Cardin), and Michigan (Debbie Stabenow). Obama is underwater in New York and New Jersey already, two normally staunch Democratic states, both with Senate races on the line as well. If Obama runs at the top of those tickets, he might eke out victories in the two states, but his presence on the ticket will depress Democratic turnout and might endanger Kirsten Gillibrand and Robert Menendez; Democrats would almost certainly have to spend a ton of money to bolster them that theyâd normally spend elsewhere.
Democrats will be looking at a massacre in the Senate, and thatâs not even including already-endangered seats in Nebraska, Missouri, Montana, and New Mexico, which just elected its first Republican woman governor last year. Democrats could wind up losing enough seats to give Republicans a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate if Obama chases away the white working-class vote that heâs been alienating for the past two years on ObamaCare and now his disastrous economic performance. If unemployment starts rising and growth remains low in the next few months, Democrats may insist on Obama finding a graceful exit before the primaries.
And guess who that leaves with an open path to the Democratic nomination? Hillary Clinton. She can step into the void with promises to return America to the economic policies of her husband. The Left may not have much love for Hillary any longer, but she was winning the very working-class Democrats in the 2008 primaries that Obama is losing to the Republicans now. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan would snap back into place for Democrats, and perhaps Wisconsin as well. Having Obama off the top of the ticket would take some of the downward pressure off of some other Senate races, and Hillary would likely be a plus in most.
If Hillary took Obamaâs place in 2012, Republicans would face a much tougher electoral map. They would still have the advantage of running against Obamaâs record, but the GOP may not capture that disaffected Democratic working-class vote if Hillary also ran against Obamanomics and promised a return to Clintonian prosperity. The eventual Republican nominee would have at least a tougher task in winning those votes and the White House. And even if Hillary lost in a general election â Democrats lost the White House in 1952 and 1968, coincidentally both times with Richard Nixon on the Republican tickets â the Democrats might save a few Senate seats with an improved turnout in key states.
All of this is entirely speculative, of course, but itâs not impossible, either. Democrats might be loathe to push the nationâs first African-American President into an early retirement, but they may eventually balk at committing political suicide if Obamaâs numbers and the economy keep going south in the next few months. Under those conditions, even Obama might be ready to walk away without much pushing.
