Challenge: Real or Random?

[jmcgraw]

Quote from marketsurfer:
now, of course this is pending no trickery involved---like they are ALL random or ALL real.

No trickery, I promise.


.

 

[JPB]

1. real
2. random
3. real
4. real
5. real
6. random
7. random
8. real
9. real
10. random

-JPB

trading: 3 years part time/1+ year full time
guessed just by looking at formations/candles

 

[swoop[TR]]

Just by observing the answers given by previous posters, it is a fair bet to say that a random answer will produce just as good a result

 

[traderkay]

hmm, there we have marketsurfer.. obviously, the dude's been thru the school of hard knocks. now that i think about it, i cant think of one successful trader I know who hasn't been thru that school. so take the knocks in stride and keep your eyes on the graduation

 

[GreenTea]

6 months of solid experience studying the markets.

Using plain old intuition to assess the charts.

1. Random
2. Real
3. Real
4. Random
5. Real
6. Random
7. Real
8. Random
9. Real
10. Random

Thanks for interesting exercise.

 

[rtharp]

inquiring minds want to know


just subscribing to thread

 

[dottom]

Random: 1, 3, 5, 6
Real: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10

Method: Digital Signal Processing to determine persistence (periods that tend to trend) vs. ergodic (periods that tend to mean revert) vs. random.

I'd be interested in repeating this exercise with a true random walk representation. This would be equivalent to the "drunkard's walk".

 

[alain]

1. random
2. random
3. real
4. random
5. real
6. random
7. random
8. real
9. real
10. random

visual interpretation

6 years experience in TA

 

[TSaimoto]

Just from flipping through all the charts (2 seconds per chart?)

All REAL.

They all looked real.

My experience? 6 years

 

[Quiet1]

1. Random
2. Random
3. Real
4. Real
5. Real
6. Random
7. Random
8. Real
9. Real
10. Random

4 years experience looking at charts