Challenge: Real or Fake?

Quiet1 · Aug 4, 2016

Just found this old random vs fake contest on ET from, eh, a VERY long time ago. Appears that the person who ran it has left up the web page with charts since then.

Without searching the archives, how many can you guess: random or fake?

http://users.rcn.com/jmcgraw/index.htm

Disclosure: I got 10/10 first time round back then and again now re-doing it blind. Seemed even easier this time than I remember from before and took about 2 minutes. So I'd say 9/10 is the minimum expected correct response you should be looking for. If it helps, the contest was done prior to 2003.

Will post answers over the weekend if no-one spoils it first by linking back...

Q1

indicator777 · Aug 4, 2016

What is the point? You can make money with random and you can make money with fake.

Quiet1 · Aug 4, 2016

It's for fun. Maybe you're familiar with the idea.

K-Pia · Aug 4, 2016

Real : #1 #3 #5 #8 #10
Fake : #2 #4 #6 #7 #9

Quiet1 · Aug 4, 2016

Thanks for playing! 6/10.

Maybe it's harder than I thought.

K-Pia · Aug 4, 2016

Quiet1 said:
Thanks for playing! 6/10.

Maybe it's harder than I thought.

Maybe I just suck @ it

Sig · Aug 5, 2016

indicator777 said:
What is the point? You can make money with random and you can make money with fake.

Since you asked, the implication is that if your technical analysis finds trading opportunities in truly random data then you're being fooled by randomness (great book btw) and if you think of yourself as a technical expert but can't tell actual from random data then again, you've been fooled by randomness. Not that recognizing real from fake data means your technical indicators work, but at least it shows either an academic or intuitive grasp of markets which would seem to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for reliably making money in said markets over a long period of time.

Quiet1 · Aug 6, 2016

Old Results thread: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/random-chart-contest-results.11820/

Chart#1 Random
Chart#2 Random
Chart#3 Motorola (MOT) April 1993 to May 1994
Chart#4 3M, Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing (MMM) April 1992 to July 1993
Chart#5 Autodesk (ADSK) July 1990 to September 1991
Chart#6 Random
Chart#7 Random
Chart#8 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) February 1993 to June 1994
Chart#9 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ-30/DJIA) June 1984 to August 1985
Chart#10 Random

The main things to look for or are the relationships between closes and next open. Also, volatility in real life tends to persist locally for a short while. Keeping those two bits in mind should get you 9/10 at least!

Q1