I have almost no programming experience and did most of the backtesting manually.
My semi automated system is 100% mechanical and could be fully automated, however i am fine with it as it is, for now.
Since it is based on indicators it was fairly easy to backtest manually and i have backtested over 1 year on multiple timeframes and then also did some random backtest for 2 months on 10 different dates going back up to 6 years.
A lot of work, boring work, however much more efficiënt then looking at real time charts all day.
I did all this in about 2 weeks, backtesting everyday for 1-2 hours. If i would have done it with real time data it would have taken me close to 2 years to get the same data and i would probably have given up by then.
I think that is a mistake a lot of beginning and losing traders make, they don't put in the effort to find out if the system had a statistically edge, they test it for a few weeks and then give up while the system might just be in a losing streak, however most of the time traders think they found to holy grail until a few weeks later when everything comes crashing down.
It is impossible to deside if a system is profitable or not in just a few weeks or months.
I was messing around a while ago with my chart and some indicators and my attention was caught by something, something minor, in the beginnen my system was just about break even.
I could have trown it away and started over, however i started thinking about what my system does (could be anything from scalping to swing trading to ...), and i knew i had to find a way to improve my edge just a little bit and then i would have something, all that developed in what i am doing today. The basics are still exactly the same and it took many many months and a lots of hours of hard work to create what i have today. Most people don't have the patience for that and keep switching systems they find online or buy instead of working something out that works for them.
They want instant results, all the time.
So do a lot of backtesting, stick to a system that you feel comfortabele with even if it might not be profitable from the beginning. A small change in entry or exit rules can have a big impact on the results and by doing so you will find out soon enough if the system has potential or not.
Knowledge gives power and knowing how a system performed in the past gives an indication on how the system might perform in the future. A break even system is just 1 small adjustment away from being profitable.
