Challenge of Weekly Profit trading Futures

El OchoCinco said:
I did not get to trade today as I was out but looking back hindsight at todays action I can explain some price action trades I look for. I will refer to the numbered points below. NQ chart form today. I also review charts to see what I missed or what I should have seen.

EDIT: Below is a 2 minute chart

View attachment 190760

1. Market sold off sharply after 2 sideways bars. I don't try and catch that knife with a random long entry and yo never know when it will end so entering a short anywhere is just a guess. Sit on your hands and wait. All large moves have a retrace or reversal. You don't know which will come but 100% guaranteed it will be one of them. The large move on 4 candles formed a doji candle and 3 sideways bars. 4 bar was a hammer.

What does that mean? For 20 minutes bears tried to resume the trend and got held up by the bulls. To me that is telling and you could have entered a long at 7597 above the small green hammer risking 9 points for a sharp reversal. large amounts of times a sharp sell off from the open is reversed (especially on no news). If you took the profut at the 20 EMA that was good for 13 points. If you held because there was no serious reversal bar until somewhere around 7622-7626 you had a nice runner. You could have moved your stop twice up the move to lock in a profit in case it weakened.

2. Assuming you missed that move or took profits, point 2 is where the market had a retrace/pullback of the large move higher and found support along the 20 EMA. 5 sideways bars showing for 25 minutes the market was holding and bears could not reverse the spike back higher. could have entered a long anywhere in this cluster with a stop below those long tail lows and rode it up until the red bar just after the horizontal blue line. That was about a 15-18 point move.

3. This is where the retrace from the previous high pushed back up but failed to take out the previous high. This shows weakness. The long red bar after the 3 on the chart with the vol spike is an early warning sign. Then the market retraced on the 20 EMA and this could have also been a short entry with a stop above those tail spike highs. How far you ride that down depends on moving your stop or scaling out.

4. If you missed this down move point 4 shows a retrace entry. Market retraced to first touch of 20 EMA and boucned off. Short entry with stop above that swing high bar and you would have rode that down to retest of opening low which it came close to.

rest of the day was a slow meandering rise with not much signals I could see any entries in.

Studying price charts this way is how you study price action and then prepare yourself to see these things in real time. On my chart I do add trendlines and some more MAs for visual aides (this is a clean chart for you to see easier).

I think you cannot trade off of random S/R levels you draw because you may be the only one seeing them. But longer trendlines, double tops and bottoms, retrace levels are part of price action we all see and make better trade entries.
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El OchoCinco,

Thanks for sharing. Great chart work. And am still learning the price action.

Below is my analysis, of course thinking in hindsight.

2. (yes, this should be #1, i know) After the sell off at opening bell, my thoughts are the trend of the moment is down and I want to be apart of it of the downward movement. So I put a Sell Stop order a few ticks below that doji you mentioned and wait for price to come to me. Stop loss would would be somewhere above the previous had that move had happened.

1. Price is reversing upward, so trend of the moment is upward and again I want to be apart of the upward movement, so I wait for a retrace and put a buy stop order a few ticks above where the arrow is.

3. Price did not break upwards the purple resistance on your chart, so I buy the breakout on the support zone drawn below in two light blue lines. I use a sell limit order

5. After the double bottom at 2 and 4 occur price reverses upward and I want to be part of the upward trend of the moment, but I want for the now resistance to broken and enter with a buy limit order. Stop loss placed in good location.

I am not use to reversal trading, I like to get in on the trend of the moment.

I hope that makes sense

upload_2018-9-5_15-15-16.png
 
Well I trade the trend or reversal depending on the entry I see. I think the mistake, if I can be so bold, is to predetermine what the trend is just because of the opening moves. The first 10-20 minutes can be wild swings and chop you up. It is better to sit on your hands and see what is developing.

If market opens up with a strong set of bars running down, you cannot say the trend is down (just look at where the market closed in this chart).

After the selloff on the opening bell your only thoughts should be "Let's see what happens."
To me, a bukkake sell off 10 minutes into the open on no real news is just a market over extension. Why do I say this? After seeing thousands of charts you see the same thing over and over again. So I am not predetermined to short on retrace and buy looking for reversal. I just sit back and let it play out.

Now you don't have to be good enough to get the long in on Point 2 on your chart. When the market dojis up you could take a small position looking for at least 50% retrace with stop below the low and have a nice R:R ratio.

Ok let's assume you stayed on your hands. At point 1 is the first real retrace pattern we see clearly after the large uptrend move. That is why I said at my point 2, that is a low risk entry for another leg up.

Waiting for resistance to be broken before getting in relies way too much on you correctly identifying S/R levels that can be random. Instead you should be analyzing the price action to see that at your point 4 is this a potential double bottom from point 2 and after the first two green bars, take a chance at a small long with stop below that point 4 low.

if you are looking for S/R levels start using trendlines, not horizontal levels. Look what you see if connected MY point #3 and #4 for a downward trend line. then you would have Resistance broken off of a move up from the double bottom.

After 2:30OPM EST on the chart the market was a whipsaw mess so just ignore it.

Bottom line, take a basic chart and add a 20 EMA and VWAP and pivots and start drawing trendlines. That alone will highlight better the price action things I am discussing and provide better landmarks. If you want go back in time to a bad trading day and tell me the date and I will post the chart with what I said in there. I know that is 100% hindsight but seeing charts over and over again is how you learn the flow and patterns.
 
El OchoCinco said:
I did not get to trade today as I was out but looking back hindsight at todays action I can explain some price action trades I look for. I will refer to the numbered points below. NQ chart form today. I also review charts to see what I missed or what I should have seen.
More...
G$D D$ayum.
Not sure how many people have realized (or would fully appreciate) what you've illustrated for them for $Free.99
Peeps out there charging infinitely more for infinitely less.

Also, I can't find your entry for data point #5. Was it:

5. Sit back and crack open a cold one for you've just done solved about 3 o' 4 murders.
 
El OchoCinco said:
Well I trade the trend or reversal depending on the entry I see. I think the mistake, if I can be so bold, is to predetermine what the trend is just because of the opening moves. The first 10-20 minutes can be wild swings and chop you up. It is better to sit on your hands and see what is developing.

If market opens up with a strong set of bars running down, you cannot say the trend is down (just look at where the market closed in this chart).

After the selloff on the opening bell your only thoughts should be "Let's see what happens."
To me, a bukkake sell off 10 minutes into the open on no real news is just a market over extension. Why do I say this? After seeing thousands of charts you see the same thing over and over again. So I am not predetermined to short on retrace and buy looking for reversal. I just sit back and let it play out.

Now you don't have to be good enough to get the long in on Point 2 on your chart. When the market dojis up you could take a small position looking for at least 50% retrace with stop below the low and have a nice R:R ratio.

Ok let's assume you stayed on your hands. At point 1 is the first real retrace pattern we see clearly after the large uptrend move. That is why I said at my point 2, that is a low risk entry for another leg up.

Waiting for resistance to be broken before getting in relies way too much on you correctly identifying S/R levels that can be random. Instead you should be analyzing the price action to see that at your point 4 is this a potential double bottom from point 2 and after the first two green bars, take a chance at a small long with stop below that point 4 low.

if you are looking for S/R levels start using trendlines, not horizontal levels. Look what you see if connected MY point #3 and #4 for a downward trend line. then you would have Resistance broken off of a move up from the double bottom.

After 2:30OPM EST on the chart the market was a whipsaw mess so just ignore it.

Bottom line, take a basic chart and add a 20 EMA and VWAP and pivots and start drawing trendlines. That alone will highlight better the price action things I am discussing and provide better landmarks. If you want go back in time to a bad trading day and tell me the date and I will post the chart with what I said in there. I know that is 100% hindsight but seeing charts over and over again is how you learn the flow and patterns.
More...

Thanks El OchoCinco,

I certainly appreciate your analysis and help and suggestions. Very good read. I agree with your comments below.

Thank you very much.
 
vol of the Gods the past few sessions. I will post some setups that I'd have taken were I at the desk. these setups (esp on NQ / lately) happen so fast, I don't think I'm going to be good for real time trades... but I'll post my daily P&L if that's acceptable to all.
 
example of what I look for all day long:

upload_2018-9-6_11-52-7.png


These are "turbo" renko bars. (I don't want to get into the discussion of why Renko bars are shit - I agree on some points of this and disagree on others... that can be done in a separate thread if anyone really wants to do so).

Left chart is a 2 point NQ turbo renko and right is 4 point NQ turbo renko.

***

Left is obviously a faster chart - this is to confirm your 'theory' of what is happening.
Right chart is the chart I'm trading. Use this to build a theory.

OK, so my theory is on right chart where it is circled - that a push down will occur where the blue/yellow/red "wall" of resistance has plotted.

Go to my left chart to look for a "passage" or "shift" in market energy.
Well, very fucking simple. You have to wait for the confirmation (which is where the white arrow down is), but that's the trade. Stop is above the last swing high (by a couple of ticks) and target is the right chart's lower yellow line.

Indicators are Drummond derived with my modification over many years.
 
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